June inflation way below expections, MSM clickbait hypers and inflata-doomers lose interest in topic

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Submitted by gzz on July 30, 2021 - 12:55pm

Submitted by gzz on July 30, 2021 - 1:14pm.

More good news from 2 weeks ago: that stupid $1500 "adverse market fee" that raised conventional refi rates by .125-.25 is now GONE.

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/consume...

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2021 - 1:21pm.

Well that's certainly putting a happy spin on the highest inflation since 1991

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/30/key-infl...

Submitted by an on July 30, 2021 - 2:11pm.

So if you don't eat, don't use HVAC, don't drive, don't live in a home, then there's no major inflation. Got it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2021 - 3:36pm.

Apparently does not comprehend that below expectations does not mean there isn't record inflation

Submitted by gzz on July 30, 2021 - 4:56pm.

Wrong. In March 1947 it was 19.7%, and was last above 10% in Dec 1981.

Inflata-doomers, in addition to false claims of "record inflation" like this, also constantly change their measure. When 1-month inflation is high, they annualize. When the monthly goes down, then they go to YoY.

The click-bait peddlers that hook the inflatadoomers so easily love to have little interviews and human interest stories about high inflation outliers, but you never seem them interview some guy buying a 60 inch TV at Wal-Mart for fewer nominal dollars than a 25 inch one ten years ago and saying "Hey this deflation's awesome!"

Submitted by gzz on July 30, 2021 - 5:15pm.

Cleveland Fed's inflation market-based inflation expectation measure: 1.61% per year the next five years, and 2.01% over 30 years.

But that's booooooring. Nobody will click on that!

https://www.clevelandfed.org/our-researc...

Submitted by gzz on July 30, 2021 - 5:25pm.

Reminder: From 1995 to the present, the money supply in Japan went up more than 400%, but prices went up about 4%. Not per year, 4% total over 26 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANMM...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNCP...

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 30, 2021 - 5:33pm.

Gzz, I really don't get the point of this thread or your remarks. Just who are you claiming are inflata-doomers? Sure, there's tons of click bait on the web about inflation going crazy. There always has been. There's still more click bait about about everything you can think of. (The markets are going to crash every day if you follow some of the headlines.) Do you take this click bait as being representative of the MSM? How do you come to the conclusion that all the people posting click bait or trying to spread inflation doom scenarios have stopped? Maybe more importantly why are you angry about this?

From my daily intake of MSM I see healthy discussion about whether inflation is transitory or will last. But in the MSM I mostly see articles about how in the last couple of months inflation has been higher than expected, but interest rates have continued to fall, so it's a bit confusing. Overall, from the MSM websites that I visit I don't see much more than a bit of concern over the situation. And more I see people reassuring that this inflation probably won't last. (Personally, I have no idea either way, which is why I started the thread asking if inflation is transitory.)

What's more, I'm not even sure why you care that actual data came in different than expectations. Whose expectations? Not mine. Why should I or anyone care about that? Doesn't data come in different than expectations all the time?

And as a last comment, I'll just suggest that you shouldn't start waving the victory flag after one months data.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 30, 2021 - 6:21pm.

gzz wrote:
Reminder: From 1995 to the present, the money supply in Japan went up more than 400%, but prices went up about 4%. Not per year, 4% total over 26 years.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MANMM...

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/JPNCPIALLMINMEI

M1 is not the correct monetary aggregate to use here. That's a rookie mistake. I humbly suggest you reconsider your level of expertise on this topic.

Along those lines -- the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation. So citing breakevens or interest rates as "proof" that you are right is unconvincing and also a bit of an overconfidence red flag.

This is a good and interesting topic; I personally enjoy reading arguments from both sides. So thanks for bringing your viewpoint to the table, but I think you could stand to recalibrate your level of self-assuredness here.

(PS I am not an expert either... which I mention because I don't want this to be read as claiming to be so).

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 30, 2021 - 7:42pm.

I can't believe how expensive shit is.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 31, 2021 - 11:50am.

gzz wrote:
Wrong. In March 1947 it was 19.7%, and was last above 10% in Dec 1981.

Inflata-doomers, in addition to false claims of "record inflation" like this, also constantly change their measure. When 1-month inflation is high, they annualize. When the monthly goes down, then they go to YoY.

The click-bait peddlers that hook the inflatadoomers so easily love to have little interviews and human interest stories about high inflation outliers, but you never seem them interview some guy buying a 60 inch TV at Wal-Mart for fewer nominal dollars than a 25 inch one ten years ago and saying "Hey this deflation's awesome!"

Both before you were born

Submitted by an on July 31, 2021 - 3:44pm.

Not quite inflation, but be prepare for higher pork prices https://apnews.com/article/lifestyle-bus...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 31, 2021 - 7:22pm.

The true cost party

Wants all prices to disclose full environmental cost of the product.

Upside. You'll feel like you're getting a screaming deal while destroying the earth

https://www.adbusters.org/listserv/the-t...

Submitted by Coronita on August 1, 2021 - 2:52am.

wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

https://www.piggington.com/rents_appear_...

dont get it.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 1, 2021 - 8:52am.

The past and present wilt—I have fill'd them, emptied them.
And proceed to fill my next fold of the future.

Listener up there! what have you to confide to me?
Look in my face while I snuff the sidle of evening,
(Talk honestly, no one else hears you, and I stay only a minute longer.)

Do I contradict myself?
Very well then I contradict myself,
(I am large, I contain multitudes.)

I concentrate toward them that are nigh, I wait on the door-slab.

Who has done his day's work? who will soonest be through with his supper?
Who wishes to walk with me?

Will you speak before I am gone? will you prove already too late?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 1, 2021 - 8:53am.

Walt Whitman.

Never read the context of the I am large quote.

Almost sounds like he's blogging.

Submitted by an on August 1, 2021 - 10:53pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
The true cost party

Wants all prices to disclose full environmental cost of the product.

Upside. You'll feel like you're getting a screaming deal while destroying the earth

https://www.adbusters.org/listserv/the-true-cost-party-of-america


LOL, the earth will destroy us long before we can destroy it. It survived meteor that caused the extinction of dinosaurs, so I'm sure it can handle anything we throw at it. We might not be able to handle what it throws back though.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 1, 2021 - 11:18pm.

an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
The true cost party

Wants all prices to disclose full environmental cost of the product.

Upside. You'll feel like you're getting a screaming deal while destroying the earth

https://www.adbusters.org/listserv/the-true-cost-party-of-america


LOL, the earth will destroy us long before we can destroy it. It survived meteor that caused the extinction of dinosaurs, so I'm sure it can handle anything we throw at it. We might not be able to handle what it throws back though.

Lol. What I mean when I say destroy the earth is destroy the habitat that sustains us. Lol.

Indeed, the "Earth" won't exist without us, as the word earth, it's a human word, and without humans, whatever is here will have no one to call it "earth". It will be a nameless rock. No not even a nameless rock, as the very concept of anything being named and unnamed will disappear with us. So no, the "earth" cannot survive without us.

Lol.

Without language, I'm not sure anything knowable to us can exist. See, e.g., genesis 1.

Shop on, Americans!!!

Submitted by an on August 1, 2021 - 11:33pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
The true cost party

Wants all prices to disclose full environmental cost of the product.

Upside. You'll feel like you're getting a screaming deal while destroying the earth

https://www.adbusters.org/listserv/the-true-cost-party-of-america


LOL, the earth will destroy us long before we can destroy it. It survived meteor that caused the extinction of dinosaurs, so I'm sure it can handle anything we throw at it. We might not be able to handle what it throws back though.

Lol. What I mean when I say destroy the earth is destroy the habitat that sustains us. Lol.

Indeed, the "Earth" won't exist without us, as the word earth, it's a human word, and without humans, whatever is here will have no one to call it "earth". It will be a nameless rock. No not even a nameless rock, as the very concept of anything being named and unnamed will disappear with us. So no, the "earth" cannot survive without us.

Lol.

Without language, I'm not sure anything knowable to us can exist. See, e.g., genesis 1.

Shop on, Americans!!!


if a tree falls and no one is around to hear it, it still makes a sound

Earth is an English word. People who speak other languages does not call this rock earth

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 1, 2021 - 11:58pm.

an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
The true cost party

Wants all prices to disclose full environmental cost of the product.

Upside. You'll feel like you're getting a screaming deal while destroying the earth

https://www.adbusters.org/listserv/the-true-cost-party-of-america


LOL, the earth will destroy us long before we can destroy it. It survived meteor that caused the extinction of dinosaurs, so I'm sure it can handle anything we throw at it. We might not be able to handle what it throws back though.

Lol. What I mean when I say destroy the earth is destroy the habitat that sustains us. Lol.

Indeed, the "Earth" won't exist without us, as the word earth, it's a human word, and without humans, whatever is here will have no one to call it "earth". It will be a nameless rock. No not even a nameless rock, as the very concept of anything being named and unnamed will disappear with us. So no, the "earth" cannot survive without us.

Lol.

Without language, I'm not sure anything knowable to us can exist. See, e.g., genesis 1.

Shop on, Americans!!!


if a tree falls and no one is around to hear it, it still makes a sound

Earth is an English word. People who speak other languages does not call this rock earth

Sound. Definition.

vibrations that travel through the air or another medium and can be heard when they reach a person's or animal's ear.

Vibrations yes.

Sound, no.

Submitted by Coronita on August 2, 2021 - 1:00am.

Is the earth flat or round? im confused these days.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 2, 2021 - 6:20am.

The small piece of earth each man dies alone upon is flat.

Submitted by gzz on August 2, 2021 - 8:14am.

Coronita wrote:
wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

The rent increases are real, not artifacts of high background inflation.

Even with low overall inflation, some prices will go up a lot while others will drop.

Submitted by gzz on August 2, 2021 - 8:23am.

Rich Toscano wrote:

M1 is not the correct monetary aggregate to use here. That's a rookie mistake. I humbly suggest you reconsider your level of expertise on this topic.

I agree it is a mistake, but it isn't my own. I think all monetary aggregates are worthless as indicators of future inflation in the context of developed nations with shrinking skilled workforces and growing economic inequality.

All the "OMG money supply doubled FED IS PRINTING MONEY!!!!" arguments come from the inflatadoomers.

Rich Toscano wrote:

Along those lines -- the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation. So citing breakevens or interest rates as "proof" that you are right is unconvincing and also a bit of an overconfidence red flag.

I don't agree "the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation." You accuse me of immodesty, but I am the one that doesn't presume to know better than the collective wisdom of the market. My best guess for future inflation is exactly what the market is predicting, about 1.6% per year over 5 years and 2% over 30.

I am also not the one here bringing up personal anecdotes about rising prices instead of relying on the expertise of government agencies that have been carefully measuring inflation using many methods over the past 75 years or so. I also don't think I know better than the Fed, which IMO has been doing a really great job since 2012.

Submitted by Coronita on August 2, 2021 - 8:42am.

gzz wrote:
Coronita wrote:
wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

The rent increases are real, not artifacts of high background inflation.

Even with low overall inflation, some prices will go up a lot while others will drop.

So it's inflation, but not really inflation. Ok...

giphy

Submitted by an on August 2, 2021 - 9:14am.

Coronita wrote:
gzz wrote:
Coronita wrote:
wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

The rent increases are real, not artifacts of high background inflation.

Even with low overall inflation, some prices will go up a lot while others will drop.

So it's inflation, but not really inflation. Ok...

giphy


It's not inflation, it's just price increases.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 2, 2021 - 9:37am.

LOL

Submitted by deadzone on August 2, 2021 - 11:13am.

gzz wrote:
I also don't think I know better than the Fed, which IMO has been doing a really great job since 2012.

Great job at what? Printing money? Not real hard to do if you own the virtual printing press. But if you are heavily invested in stock and RE markets I'm sure you think they are doing an awesome job because they are making you rich.

Meanwhile rent and housing prices are going to the moon and that is the biggest expense for the majority of folks. But apparently that doesn't count as inflation.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 2, 2021 - 11:54am.

gzz wrote:
Rich Toscano wrote:

M1 is not the correct monetary aggregate to use here. That's a rookie mistake. I humbly suggest you reconsider your level of expertise on this topic.

I agree it is a mistake, but it isn't my own. I think all monetary aggregates are worthless as indicators of future inflation in the context of developed nations with shrinking skilled workforces and growing economic inequality.

All the "OMG money supply doubled FED IS PRINTING MONEY!!!!" arguments come from the inflatadoomers.

Rich Toscano wrote:

Along those lines -- the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation. So citing breakevens or interest rates as "proof" that you are right is unconvincing and also a bit of an overconfidence red flag.

I don't agree "the bond market has pretty famously been terrible at predicting inflation." You accuse me of immodesty, but I am the one that doesn't presume to know better than the collective wisdom of the market. My best guess for future inflation is exactly what the market is predicting, about 1.6% per year over 5 years and 2% over 30.

I am also not the one here bringing up personal anecdotes about rising prices instead of relying on the expertise of government agencies that have been carefully measuring inflation using many methods over the past 75 years or so. I also don't think I know better than the Fed, which IMO has been doing a really great job since 2012.

The market gets things wrong all the time. it's not really immodest to point this out. This site wouldn't exist if markets didn't get things wrong sometimes! And FWIW - you point it out all the time yourself with regard to other asset classes.

So I don't think it's immodest to be skeptical of market prices as proof of anything.

I accused you of immodesty because you are coming across as if you have the inflation thing all figured out. Maybe I'm misreading you, but that's the vibe I'm getting. The Fed, whom you claim to defer to, is showing a lot more uncertainty and humility on this very complex topic than you are.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 2, 2021 - 12:05pm.

gzz wrote:
Coronita wrote:
wait, how are you srguing theres no inflation on this thread but on the other thread talking about how rents are going to the moon???

The rent increases are real, not artifacts of high background inflation.

Even with low overall inflation, some prices will go up a lot while others will drop.

Good distinction of real vs nominal increases, but the rent (including OER) is a big chunk of CPI. Around 30% I think. So even if the non-rent portion of the CPI basket isn't going up a lot, skyrocketing rents are unlikely to co-exist with low overall "inflation."

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