June 2019 housing data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 8, 2019 - 5:50pm
There was a bit of in increase in months of inventory in June, but it seems pretty par for the course for this time of year:



If rates stay nice and low, I expect that the trajectory of the 2019 line will end up looking more like 2016-17 than 2018. (And if they don't... well then it's probably the 2018 route).

Here's a look at price changes vs. inverted month of inventory, still tracking quite well on the assumption that 2.5 months is the "new normal" equilibrium level of inventory.



Price-wise, we are right back at peak levels, in nominal terms.



In valuation terms we are still below last year's peak, but I will soon have more on that. In the meantime, more graphs below!


































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Submitted by gzz on July 17, 2019 - 2:12am.

Looks like low rates are not driving sales and inventory as much as expected. China conflict scaring away Chinese buyers?

San Diego is now the cheapest major city on the West Coast.

Hopefully a lot of employees of Google Amazon etc ask to be transferred to the SD office where they can get still buy a nice family home.

Also the biggest coastal city with a Republican mayor and pro-development city and county government.

Submitted by spdrun on July 17, 2019 - 7:05pm.

^^^

It's not only the Chinese conflict -- it's instability and uncertainty about visa procedures scaring ALL non-US buyers. Would you buy a home in the US if you could be deported next month on some clown's whim? Also, fundamentals (manufacturing, earnings, transportation/freight) aren't looking as rosy as President 45 makes them out to be.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on July 17, 2019 - 8:57pm.

Yes, according to data from NAR, the foreign buyers dropped significantly:

https://www.cnbc.com/2019/07/17/foreign-...

Submitted by gzz on July 18, 2019 - 7:48pm.

SPD, outside of Chinese buyers, fear of deportation does not make sense for high net worth foreigners. Even for the Chinese buyers, I don't think the fear is actually a rational one. In fact, if I were Chinese I'd want a dollar-investment even more since China's only real response to the tariffs is to weaken their currency against the dollar.

Also, the actual number of deportations is now about the same as under Obama. If Trump didn't ramp them up when he had a GOP congress, he isn't going to do it now.

Jared's proposal is to actually increase higher skilled Asian immigrant visas, though of course no immigration bill is every going to become law in the next few years.

There is also the fact that Jared (and thus Trump's grandchildren) is very invested in selling high end condos to buyers that are often foreign. The Kushners even have a EB5 "buy a condo, get a visa" project they are marketing right now. Unless it is sold out already, haven't heard about it in the news recently.

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