San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
June 2018 Housing Data
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 11, 2018 - 10:16am
Let's start with some big picture stuff... here are assorted MoM and YoY stats:
Prices have decelerated but are still rising, at least based on the 3 month average for single family homes:
The monthly price per square foot is a lot noisier (with the condo series pretty hopelessly noisy), but looking at single family homes, it implies a pop earlier this year followed by a gentle rise (though flat last month). This is of course a less accurate price measure than the Case-Shiller index, as the latter actually measures same-home sales.
The most interesting development to me is the increase in months of inventory. This is still very low historically, but it's a larger-than-usual increase which leaves the market better-supplied than any of the prior 3 Junes:
Of course it's just one month, so meaningless as of yet. But this is definitely something I will watch in the months to come. An sustained increase in months of inventory could mean that deteriorating affordability (as a result of both price increases and rising mortgage rates) is starting to bite. But let's not get ahead of ourselves... for now, the market continues to be quite undersupplied as it has been for several years:
And, while months of inventory is a bit higher than recent Junes, it's still at levels that would imply upward price pressure:
Assorted graphs below...
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