San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
July 2009 Resale Data Rodeo
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 12, 2009 - 7:39pm
As discussed previously, prices on the whole rallied again last month:
I'm chalking the whackage in the condo size-adjusted median up to volatility (of which there is a lot, as the chart shows) rather than a trend change. This logic was also described in the last article on prices. All in all it seems that the rally endured for another month.
The plain vanilla median was directionally quite similar: detached homes up, condos down, but the volume-weighted aggregate up a hair.
My model of what the Case-Shiller HPI might look like when the July version finally comes out is below:
What's interesting here is that even considering the spring rally effect, this price increase is fairly dramatic. As of July, the HPI model was up 4.9% from the April low in the HPI. This is significantly larger than the biggest spring rallies of the 1990s bust (2.3% each in 1991 and 1994). Of course, this assumes that my proxy will be an accurate representation of the actual Case-Shiller HPI when it comes out... that remains to be seen.
An unusually large bounce isn't out of the realm of possibility considering how much demand there is in comparison to supply. Sales volume was once again healthy:
...and inventory, while up slightly from the prior month, was pretty tight:
...leading to a very low 4 months of inventory:
Contingent inventory amounted to about 29% of total inventory, so if we back out contingent homes there were fewer than 3 months of inventory for sale:
Yet as usual, against this scarce current inventory backdrop we have yet more homes piling atop the mountain of foreclosures each month:
The shadow inventory issue (most recently discussed here) looms large, its significance to be decided at a later date. In the meantime, there is little doubt that we are experiencing a significant rally in the San Diego housing market.
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