January's Foreclosure Explosion

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 8, 2008 - 2:21pm

In the prior foreclosure writeup, I opined that the high rate of December foreclosures was deceiving because it likely represented a period of catch-up from November's abnormally low levels.

I guess I was wrong, because January foreclosure activity came in even higher. During the month, 3,299 default notices and 1,461 trustee sale notices were delivered to delinquent borrowers.

read more at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by jyurasek02 on February 8, 2008 - 3:24pm.

Wow! This is going to be a long ride...Have you entertained the idea of splitting your foreclosure analyis into subcategories say by location (N,E,S,W), zipcode, home value, or any other factors? I know it is probably enough work just to keep this data going, but it would be helpful. Maybe this has already been addressed in another thread...

Submitted by Michelle Steffes on February 8, 2008 - 4:12pm.

Michelle Steffes

Wow is right! A multiple worse than the 90's which was bad as it gets.

Submitted by jpinpb on February 8, 2008 - 6:34pm.

I am a cat dying of curiosity. How many people in the past few years took out subprime loans? I would love a percentage. I think that will help better gauge what's on the horizon. But I heard that even people who have lived in their house for years, putting 20% down took out HELOC and refinanced doing subprimes. All I can do is shake my head in disbelief.

Submitted by Bugs on February 8, 2008 - 9:39pm.

It's now double the peak of the 1990s and that doubling took very little time. At this pace it won't be long before it's triple the rate of the 1990s.

What's interesting is that if you laid Rich's trendline for the price spikes over the one for foreclosures they would look really similar. They're just staggered in time.

Submitted by capeman on February 8, 2008 - 10:39pm.

What's most alarming about that chart is the insane increase in ramp rate of the ratio NODs/NOTs. It looks to me like we could be seeing the NOTs rate really rocketing off even faster in the three months following this plot. This isn't going to slow down any time soon. Yikes!

Submitted by GoUSC on February 8, 2008 - 10:54pm.

Rich,

Can you change the horizontal access so that it is easier to read? Would be helpful to see the change in activity over the past few months...

Just an idea. :) Thanks!

Submitted by ocrenter on February 8, 2008 - 11:48pm.

SD foreclosures

Submitted by barnaby33 on February 9, 2008 - 9:58am.

In order to qualify as parabolic, the ascent rate of NODs and NOTs would have to slow. I loved the comment about the 90's being as bad as it gets. Oh no, its going to be much worse.

Josh

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 9, 2008 - 12:10pm.

jyurasek02, this historical foreclosure data is only published on a countywide basis.

radelow, I'm not sure what you are asking for... is sounds like maybe you want to zoom into the more recent period, kind of like what ocr provided above? Is this right? I can do that if it would be helpful.

Rich

Submitted by GoUSC on February 9, 2008 - 4:15pm.

That's exactly it. Thanks!

Submitted by HereWeGo on February 9, 2008 - 10:08pm.

You need to look at the data from a different timeframe.

This chart allows you to adjust the timescale for NODs, and this chart allows the same for NOTs.

Take the start point back to 1982, and you get a bit of a different feel for the process that is currently underway.

Submitted by JC on February 9, 2008 - 11:50pm.

WOW! I've been reading this blog for a loong time, but that blew me away. Thank you for sharing.

Speaking of which, I can't thank Rich and the awesome contributors enough. This is such a great resource!

Submitted by sd_matt on February 10, 2008 - 11:18pm.

Yeah lemme echo jc's sentiment.

I've been watching for a few years. I've been comparing who has been saying what and what has been coming true.

The denial that has been going on outside this blog is like watching the captain go down with the ship that he desperately imagines is a submarine.

I will be giving my business to the realtors that have been blogging here, trolls excepted.

Submitted by Liz357 on February 11, 2008 - 12:59pm.

backward looking

Now that the fed has aggressively cut rates in January, don't you think that we should see a slow-down in NODs? I predict 3 more months of bad numbers and then it bottoms out.

Also, I've heard anecdotedly that the short sale process is "The Wild West" and that banks haven't put in place a reliable process that allows the highest bidder to win.

This is hard for me to say because I can't believe the stupidity of people getting themselves into these situations en masse. We need a mechanism that allows people to stay in their houses if they still have a job and it's their primary residence. Otherwise we could be facing Great Depression like consquences in this county.

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