January Resale Price Preview

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 12, 2008 - 1:44pm

Howdy all -- over at voiceofsandiego.org I've got a brief look at the last month's resale price data. The January data rodeo will be up here later this week.

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Submitted by skywalker on February 13, 2008 - 9:57am.

funny to see no one comment when news contradict "sky is falling" theory :-)

Submitted by CogSciGuy on February 13, 2008 - 11:07am.

What news is contradicting the "sky is falling" theory, young skywalker? How so?

Submitted by Andy on February 13, 2008 - 12:53pm.

Because there is no contradiction; it's one month of data. When we start seeing an established trend in not only price but inventory and sales, then maybe.

Submitted by pencilneck on February 13, 2008 - 1:41pm.

As a wise Jedi might say "Entering a historically strong season, we are."

To state the obvious, the market tends to stabalize in the spring and early summer even during weak periods. If the market bounces 10 or 15% during this season it will not necessarily contradict the overall downward trend we've seen over the past few years.

Not that there will not be a lot of bottom callers along the way. Come out every spring they do.

Submitted by LV Renter on February 13, 2008 - 1:58pm.

The sky is still falling. The new home market was up. In January two high end Bosa buildings that had deposits taken as much as four years ago closed. The average price for units in these building was probably $800K or greater. The clsoings were for probably more than 100 units. The purchasers had two choices sacrifice their 10% deposit or close. Many people chose wrong, they closed and are now competing with the builder selling the cancelled units. If I was you I would expect a drop off next month.

Submitted by orthofrancis on February 14, 2008 - 1:53am.

This is a dead cat bounce - as in when you throw a dead cat down the stairs, every once and a while, it will bounce up a little bit, on it's general descent down.

Ignore it, as no data is perfect, and there are bound to be anomalies. A single trend point, does not buck/reverse an entire curve. This has happened before.

Submitted by vagabondo on February 14, 2008 - 2:07pm.

theory? i'm no genius here, but if i bought a home in '04 for $1MM and sell it today for $800K i would conclude i have lost money. pulling out the condo data, you still have a 13.2%/sq.ft annualized price drop for sfd.

Submitted by SD Realtor on February 15, 2008 - 7:26pm.

Actually this data looks very well behaved to me. The most recent data points is not any sort of dead cat bounce at all. Maybe I am not seeing things you guys see but every spring you see an uptick. Then after awhile you see a downtrend. Perhaps because the delineation on the horizontal axis are not exact exactly to scale it is harder to see but it makes great sense...

This plot exhibits a CLASSIC depreciation trend. Secular plot downwards with small cyclical phenomenahs inside it. There are spring rallies in 06, and 07 and it looks like one is forming in 08. The highs displayed in each rally are lower then the previous rally and the the lows for each year are lower then the year before.

This chart characterizes predictable spring behavior that is seasonal and will fritter out. It is not going to be a huge rally either...maybe a few % points that will be recaptured down quickly.

SD Realtor

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