San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
January Case-Shiller HPI
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 25, 2008 - 4:37pm
The Case-Shiller home price index for San Diego didn't get spanked as badly as it did last month but it was nonetheless down a substantial 2.5% for the month of January. This puts the total decline from the november 2005 peak through January 2008 at 21.1%.
Here's how the three price tiers have fared since their respective peaks:
Wow -- the low-priced tier is now gunning for a 30% decline from the peak (and has probably already passed it by now, considering that these are January numbers and that they average the sales results from Nov-Jan). Yet low-priced homes are still above their historical relationship to the higher tiers:
And, I might add, all three tiers are still above their prior relatoinships to everything else:
Here's a close-up of the CPI-adjusted numbers since the peak.
Adjusted for CPI inflation, the low tier was already down a third as of January, wiping out 50% of gains. Even the allegedly immune high end has lost over 20% of its real value -- a huge chunk of that correction having taken place in the past six months. Yet San Diego homes remain substantially overvalued (much more on that subject here) and the decline has not shown any signs of letting up yet. As a matter of fact, if the February size-adjusted median is providing a remotely accurate indication of actual price changes, next month could look a lot worse.
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