Irony: Trump the liberal

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Submitted by EconProf on June 1, 2018 - 8:09am

In terms of accomplishing liberals' goals, Trump should be applauded. On many fronts--not all--he is succeeding. A booming economy, record low unemployment, wages picking up steam, state tax revenues exceeding all predictions. These are priorities liberals say they want. Perhaps that's why his popularity is climbing.
Overseas he is bringing North Koreas to the negotiating table, convinced NATO "allies" to up their defense budget, and stood up to Syria and ISIS.
Is all this why the Blue Wave in the upcoming midterm election is looking more like a ripple?

Submitted by zk on July 9, 2018 - 3:29pm.

EconProf wrote:
More good employment news today that liberals should be cheering.
213,000 new jobs created last month.
Hispanic unemployment rate lowest in history-- 4.6%, down from 4.9% in previous month.
Black unemployment rate still super low.
Hispanic and African-American support rising for Trump, worrying Democrats.

The unemployment rate overall actually rose to 4%, reportedly because previously discouraged workers are coming off the sidelines after hearing about employers anxious to hire.

Trump the liberal.

Even for a fake econprof, you're not very good with cause and effect.

Or what it means to be a liberal.

Or reality in general.

Submitted by EconProf on July 11, 2018 - 3:00pm.

Here's another reason liberals should be cheering the buoyant Trump economy: its surging tax revenues are enabling state and local spending to keep expanding.
In the just-signed CA budget, General Fund expenditures are up $11.6 billion, a 9.2% increase over the previous year and way above the rate of inflation. Governor Brown should send a thank-you note to the White House.

Trump the liberal.

Submitted by spdrun on July 11, 2018 - 4:24pm.

Budget signed in 2018 is based on 2017 revenues, before Trump had much (if any) of an effect. As an "econ prof" you should know better.

Also, not all state and local spending is good according to liberals. The 2008 recession was one of the things that forced states to cut back on law enforcement, mass incarceration, and re-evaluate idiotic drug laws.

Submitted by EconProf on July 11, 2018 - 6:40pm.

spdrun wrote:
Budget signed in 2018 is based on 2017 revenues, before Trump had much (if any) of an effect. As an "econ prof" you should know better.

Also, not all state and local spending is good according to liberals. The 2008 recession was one of the things that forced states to cut back on law enforcement, mass incarceration, and re-evaluate idiotic drug laws.

Uh no. A budget is future spending compared to future revenues. In the words of the Department of Finance, "In May, (the Department of) Finance submits revenue and expenditure estimates for both the current and budget years to the legislature." That was the budget recently signed by Governor Brown in the last stage of the budgetary process.

In fact, it is the budget for fiscal year 2018-19, which runs next October 1 until September 30, 2019. So it apparently anticipates strong tax revenues for the next year and a quarter.

Submitted by spdrun on July 11, 2018 - 6:45pm.

Estimates are mostly based on previous-year performance, since they don't have a crystal ball about current or next year's performance.

May estimate date means the data goes from early 2017 to early 2018, if you they're lucky.

Submitted by EconProf on July 12, 2018 - 8:56am.

A budget is planned future expenditures compared to planned future revenue. It's really not complicated.

Submitted by zk on July 12, 2018 - 9:02am.

I'm not sure why I was giving you the benefit of the doubt. But I was. It's pretty clear at this point that you're nothing but a troll.

EconTroll.

So feeble.

Submitted by EconProf on July 26, 2018 - 8:03am.

Liberals, and the vast majority of economists, favor free trade--no tariffs, no non-tariff barriers, no subsidies to favored industries.
And yesterday, that is just what Trump and the EU's representative agreed to work toward.

Once again, if we look at Trump's policies and results, rather than his silly tweets, we see real progress toward what liberals claim to want.

Trump the liberal.

Submitted by spdrun on July 26, 2018 - 9:06am.

"We'll work towards" means "we'll think about it and maybe do nothing." I hope this is true -- no need for European markets to be deluged with shoddy American or "American" goods when the local products are actually better, if slightly more expensive.

BTW - "liberals" supporting free trade is a recent thing. Till the 90s, liberals tended to be all for protecting the jobs of US workers.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 26, 2018 - 9:40am.

American food would make Europeans obese like the Brits already are. Hormone filled meats and pesticide laced grains.

But such a contorted argument. Trump raises tariffs so he can do away with them. The EU meeting was just a way for Trump to claim a win and move on while doing nothing.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 26, 2018 - 9:49am.

""liberals" supporting free trade is a recent thing. Till the 90s, liberals tended to be all for protecting the jobs of US workers."

LOL it's all about the spin,

Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 26, 2018 - 10:16am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
""liberals" supporting free trade is a recent thing. Till the 90s, liberals tended to be all for protecting the jobs of US workers."

LOL it's all about the spin,

Nothing about spin. If you look back, when American cars were shit and Jesse Jackson ran for president he was a strong supporter of unions. Of course, Mondale won the nominarion but Jackson was actually the dream candidate for manufacturing jobs. But manufacturing Democrats voters for Reagan, hence the moniker Reagan Democrats. Then the rust belt voters voted for Trump in 2016. They deserve who they got.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 26, 2018 - 10:27am.

If they haven't already, some party should hire you (does not matter which one I think you could really do a good job regardless).

I will leave it at that.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 26, 2018 - 11:22am.

EconProf wrote:
Liberals, and the vast majority of economists, favor free trade--no tariffs, no non-tariff barriers, no subsidies to favored industries.
And yesterday, that is just what Trump and the EU's representative agreed to work toward.

Once again, if we look at Trump's policies and results, rather than his silly tweets, we see real progress toward what liberals claim to want.

Trump the liberal.

What about $12 billion is welfare from taxpayers to farmers. That must be communist.
Something that would not be necessary had it not been for the trade war.

Makes the $500 million loan guarantee on Solyndra like small potatoes. And the overall DOE loan program is profitable.

Submitted by EconProf on July 27, 2018 - 6:47am.

More good economic news today: 2d quarter GNP growth rate hit 4.1%. (Obama's growth rate for eight years averaged under 2%.) Also, unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.8%.
Lots of good things that conservatives and liberals agree upon happen from strong economic growth. Poverty falls, government revenues at all levels rise, home values and homeowners' equity increases, stock market enriches investors and government pension plans (NASDAQ up 52% since election), etc., etc.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on July 28, 2018 - 7:20am.

I’m glad you acknowledge that socialism works and works in spades.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/...

Submitted by spdrun on July 28, 2018 - 2:06pm.

One quarter of growth doesn't mean much -- we had a few quarters of > 4% growth under Obama. No unemployment print till next week.

4.1% GDP growth was q-o-q, not y-o-y which was 2.8%. Neither is unprecedented.

Submitted by EconProf on August 3, 2018 - 4:16pm.

More good news today resulting from the strong economy:

Unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.9%

157,000 new jobs. (This is slightly below expectations, but past months' figures were revised upward by 96,000, so total gain is 253,000).

Big increase in workers moving from part time to full time.

Number of officially unemployed, defined as out of work and actively looking for work, declined by 284,000.

The "quit rate", voluntary separation by employees, highest in recorded history. This indicates workers' confidence in finding another job.

Submitted by SK in CV on August 3, 2018 - 4:43pm.

EconProf wrote:
More good news today resulting from the strong economy:

Unemployment rate fell from 4% to 3.9%

157,000 new jobs. (This is slightly below expectations, but past months' figures were revised upward by 96,000, so total gain is 253,000).

Big increase in workers moving from part time to full time.

Number of officially unemployed, defined as out of work and actively looking for work, declined by 284,000.

The "quit rate", voluntary separation by employees, highest in recorded history. This indicates workers' confidence in finding another job.

Great job continuing the trends of the prior administration. It would be nicer if new jobs could match any of the numbers from the previous 5 years, but still, overall, a pretty decent report.

Submitted by svelte on December 24, 2018 - 8:55am.

EconProf wrote:
... and stood up to Syria and ISIS.

Not so much.

Submitted by spdrun on December 24, 2018 - 9:03am.

Good: we should have pulled out of Afghanistan 15 years ago rather than wasting trillions on a pointless military homicide spree.

Submitted by svelte on December 24, 2018 - 10:02am.

EconProf wrote:

OK, here's the spike: The growth rate during Obama's 8 years averaged under 2%. This despite the historical tendency for deep recessions to be followed by strong recoveries. Under Trump the annual growth rate is approximately 3% per year, a difference that has a big long run impact over time.

Obama's 8 years average out to under 2% because of that disastrous first year trying to recover from the previous administration. Otherwise it would have been higher (see chart below).

Trump's growth rate appears to be on a downward trajectory now, I'll continue to monitor it into his 3rd and 4th year.

US Growth Rate 2008-2018US Growth Rate 2008-2018

Submitted by svelte on December 24, 2018 - 10:12am.

EconProf wrote:
In terms of accomplishing liberals' goals, Trump should be applauded. On many fronts--not all--he is succeeding... wages picking up steam...

US Wage Growth 2008-2018US Wage Growth 2008-2018

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 24, 2018 - 11:43am.

spdrun wrote:
Good: we should have pulled out of Afghanistan 15 years ago rather than wasting trillions on a pointless military homicide spree.

Once you break it you own it. That’s what happens to badasses. The key is to be careful and delicate when entering the china shop.

Submitted by outtamojo on December 24, 2018 - 3:10pm.

It's like the market is forecasting a command economy run by a dictator who has filed for bankruptcy 6 times or something.

Submitted by spdrun on December 24, 2018 - 3:34pm.

FlyerInHI: Afghanistan was broken long before we went in there...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 24, 2018 - 4:28pm.

spdrun wrote:
FlyerInHI: Afghanistan was broken long before we went in there...

Afghanistan was the victim of great power politics. We put the Taliban in there. Many unintended consequences to American foreign policy.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on December 24, 2018 - 4:30pm.

outtamojo wrote:
It's like the market is forecasting a command economy run by a dictator who has filed for bankruptcy 6 times or something.

The worst Christmas Eve ever.

Submitted by EconProf on January 5, 2019 - 7:28am.

More good economic news from the Trump economy that liberals should be cheering.
The Labor Department just reported a jump in jobs of 312,000 for the most recent month, plus an upward revision of 58,000 for the previous month.
Importantly, the employment numbers under Trump seem to be helping the poorest of Americans.

The lowest-paid employees are getting the largest wage hikes.
419,000 people got off the sidelines and joined the labor force. So previously "out of the work force" individuals started looking for a job (thus pushing up slightly the official unemployment rate).
Wage gains in 2018 were 3.2%, largest in a decade.
Job "leavers"--voluntary quits, jumped again, indicating workers' confidence they can readily find a new job.
There is increasing evidence that the tight job market is forcing employers to hire previously shunned applicants--the less educated, minority, ex-felon applicant with a weak resume and job history.
Trump the liberal.

Submitted by svelte on January 5, 2019 - 10:38am.

EconProf wrote:
More good economic news from the Trump economy that liberals should be cheering.
The Labor Department just reported a jump in jobs of 312,000 for the most recent month, plus an upward revision of 58,000 for the previous month.

That is one piece of good news from the Trump administration.

Here's how it stacks up to past presidents:

US Job Growth by Presidents Carter through TrumpUS Job Growth by Presidents Carter through Trump

Both Carter and Clinton had higher job growth numbers.

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