Investment positioning for Dem Sweep and Super-Stimulus

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Submitted by gzz on October 20, 2020 - 10:24am

PredictIt tends to have a GOP bias and has a 57% chance of a "clean sweep."

538 has 3 models and says it is more like 75-80%.

The first big thing that will happen in this more likely than not scenario will be a giant stimulus, probably at least $2.5 trillion.

More checks to everyone, more boosted unemployment, more firehoses of federal money directed at the medical system and state and local governments.

I am already ultra long by virtue of having leveraged real estate investments and being net long the stock market.

Should I go in more? Get S&P calls? Any equities that will benefit from some renewed inflation?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 20, 2020 - 11:54am.

arguably gold and silver

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 20, 2020 - 9:59pm.

If the dems do sweep, do they crush the fublicards into oblivion?

Pack the supreme court
No filibuster
New states, wash dc, p.r.
Split calif. In 2., more reps.

By the time the reflurplicats regroup, so many old people die, the publikurds lose more ground.

On to a death spiral. More young. Old dead republican numbers shrink like testes in an ice bath

Weird if this is how the repufflicorns disappear.

Need new name for reformed group.

Possible contestants....

Tea party.

Qanon

Juggalo party

Proud boys

The standbys

The boogalooviand

The know-nothing party

The whigs

Americafuckyeahvians!

Fa [ anti removed]

The party of jesus fucking christ, you peasants!!!

The antiabortioneers

Pussygrabbers

Or just

THE PARTY.

That ones got my vote

Id be so happy to see both parties splinter irrevocably. But republicans look like theyre gonna die first. Well earned, well deserved.

Submitted by an on October 20, 2020 - 8:00pm.

Pull as much $ as possible out of your house(s) and buy even more real estate. Here's hope for a repeat of 1970-80s during Carter years. $2.5T next year and $5T the year after that? Let's juice this shit up. I really hope Harris follows through and give every man/woman/child $2k/month until COVID-19 is defeated.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 20, 2020 - 10:09pm.

I have an idea. The govt could have Hueloc loans. Theyre like helocs but you borrow against your own HUman equity. Hueloc

So you get 2k a month? We will front you 10 years, then we own the rest of your equity.....guaranteed by salliemae...human equity line of credit. We are all rich in potential.

Borrow your ass off. Literally. Also private equity should start buying birthright for a mess of pottage, if the cain, and are Abel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing

Submitted by an on October 20, 2020 - 11:15pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I have an idea. The govt could have Hueloc loans. Theyre like helocs but you borrow against your own HUman equity. Hueloc

So you get 2k a month? We will front you 10 years, then we own the rest of your equity.....guaranteed by salliemae...human equity line of credit. We are all rich in potential.

Borrow your ass off. Literally. Also private equity should start buying birthright for a mess of pottage, if the cain, and are Abel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing


no, I just want my free $2k/month.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 21, 2020 - 8:11am.

an wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
I have an idea. The govt could have Hueloc loans. Theyre like helocs but you borrow against your own HUman equity. Hueloc

So you get 2k a month? We will front you 10 years, then we own the rest of your equity.....guaranteed by salliemae...human equity line of credit. We are all rich in potential.

Borrow your ass off. Literally. Also private equity should start buying birthright for a mess of pottage, if the cain, and are Abel.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Know_Nothing


no, I just want my free $2k/month.

Humans will be worthless later. Better to tap your equity and diversify

Submitted by gzz on October 21, 2020 - 3:45pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I have an idea. The govt could have Hueloc loans. Theyre like helocs but you borrow against your own HUman equity. Hueloc

Unless you mean the collateral is human flesh like in the Merchant of Venice, what you're describing is called an unsecured personal loan.

Submitted by spdrun on October 21, 2020 - 3:59pm.

Electric vehicle companies.

Renewable energy companies.

Nuclear energy companies.

Gun companies ... people will freak out and panic-buy firearms.

Muni bonds assuming a Federal bailout.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 21, 2020 - 4:25pm.

gzz wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
I have an idea. The govt could have Hueloc loans. Theyre like helocs but you borrow against your own HUman equity. Hueloc

Unless you mean the collateral is human flesh like in the Merchant of Venice, what you're describing is called an unsecured personal loan.

secured by your future UBI payments.

Submitted by phaster on October 21, 2020 - 4:47pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:

Split calif. In 2., more reps.

as messed up as political mis-management is in California is, its large size is actually a good thing in some cases

consider by virtue of its size, California can point the USA as well as the rest of the world toward the future of consumer products (i.e. electric cars) that will be needed to address ever growing CO2 emissions

https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-e...

right now both major political parties are too extreme and on leadership on both sides has their head where the sun don't shine

what I'd like to see (and what this country needs more than ever) is fiscal conservatives who actually understand the basic science of climate change AND have the political will to face up to the harsh truth

Submitted by svelte on October 21, 2020 - 4:50pm.
Submitted by gzz on October 21, 2020 - 5:17pm.

Sorry bro my UBI payments go right to my spendthrift trust, which is also one of those South Dakota privacy trusts and whose assets are in the Swiss Virgin Islands, which many people don't even know exist.

Come at me creditors, I dare you!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 21, 2020 - 5:57pm.

gzz wrote:
Sorry bro my UBI payments go right to my spendthrift trust, which is also one of those South Dakota privacy trusts and whose assets are in the Swiss Virgin Islands, which many people don't even know exist.

Come at me creditors, I dare you!

in the future, huelocs will require a small testicular implant. Believe me, you will pay.

Submitted by svelte on October 25, 2020 - 12:05pm.

I don't buy that this will be a clean sweep, or a landslide.

There are a lot of people who support Trump quietly without admitting it. And certainly not admitting to it to a pollster.

My opinion is that this will be very close.

Submitted by davelj on October 28, 2020 - 11:20am.

I think Biden will win for one simple reason. Let's cut through the mountain of BS and analysis.

40%+ of folks are going to vote just as they did last election because they're loyal to their party. Only the undecided folks in the middle really matter - that's like 10%-20% of voters (probably closer to 10%). This is not news.

Very few of that "middle group" of voters who voted for Trump are sitting around thinking, "Wow, I'm glad I voted for Trump - he turned out to be really good." So, of that middle group that voted democrat last time, almost all of them will do the same this time. But... a large percentage of that group that voted for Trump last time aren't going to do so this time. And that will be the difference. It's not that complicated. As with everything in economics, everything important in politics occurs at the margin.

I don't know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low - it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).

Submitted by scaredyclassic on October 28, 2020 - 12:12pm.

if new voters who previously weren't interested in voting are inspired to vote, I would guess the majority of newer voters would be anti-trump.

frankly, at this point, Im neutral. I think we probably deserve another 4 years of this.

Submitted by svelte on October 28, 2020 - 1:39pm.

davelj wrote:

I don't know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low - it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida - as it usually does. And those two races are really close.

Submitted by svelte on October 28, 2020 - 1:40pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
frankly, at this point, Im neutral. I think we probably deserve another 4 years of this.

Go! Go to your room and bite your tongue!

Submitted by spdrun on October 28, 2020 - 1:50pm.

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida - as it usually does. And those two races are really close.

Texas is within a point in either direction and could decide this race. Remember, Trump shafted a lot of border cities and towns by building his wall and tightening the border. They used to profit from day-crossers buying goods that are cheaper in the US.

Submitted by sdrealtor on October 28, 2020 - 2:37pm.

svelte wrote:
davelj wrote:

I don't know how close the election will be, but I think the odds of Trump winning are extraordinarily low - it will take a miracle (eg, massive Russian interference).

In a lot of ways, it comes down to Pennsylvania and Florida - as it usually does. And those two races are really close.

Im thinking Trump gets FLA and Biden gets PA. The two I wonder are Michigan and WI

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