Interesting COVID numbers article - Pigg thoughts ?

User Forum Topic
Submitted by sdduuuude on September 5, 2020 - 11:40am

Curious to see what the Piggs think about this. A nice article on numbers with clear definitions. I buy it 100% but need some skeptics to convince me otherwise.

https://drmalcolmkendrick.org/2020/09/04...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 5, 2020 - 12:01pm.

Maybe.

Except in my mind, anecdotally i knew a pretty healthy looking cop in his 50s who died. I doubt he wouldve died from the flu.

Could have...but....

Submitted by sdduuuude on September 5, 2020 - 12:22pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
Maybe.

Except in my mind, anecdotally i knew a pretty healthy looking cop in his 50s who died. I doubt he wouldve died from the flu.

Could have...but....

The ball has different colors when you cut into it but it is the same size ball. Many children who would have died from the flu have survived COVID, for example.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 5, 2020 - 12:28pm.

Kendrick sounds like hes taken some controversial, maybe unscientific positions.

Dont mean hes wrong, but he looks like he likes to say krazy shit

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 6, 2020 - 9:10am.

IMO Sweden had it right (although they could have done a better job protecting the elderly).

In the end the numbers were not much different than France or Spain etc...

Trying to do a hard lock down in the USA is just a really dumb Idea IMO.

Submitted by spdrun on September 6, 2020 - 10:05am.

We never had a hard lockdown in the US ... even in NYC in March-May, there were no travel restrictions to speak of, parks were open, many stores were open, de-facto outdoor dining and bars existed.

Sweden didn't have it right. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan had it right ... "soft" lockdowns combined with contact-tracing via apps, zealous testing programs, widespread mask use, etc. I don't get why so many people are getting their titties in a bind about mask use here in the USA -- it's the socially least costly way of controlling viral spread.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 7, 2020 - 8:45am.

What about if the infection rate (R0) is higher and its only a bit more deadly. That would kill a lot more people. Dwaths seem to be around 500 daily. Its not normal 180000 peoole to bw dying of flu in summer.

Aldo, unknown longterm effects. Not sure theres any evidence of younger healthy people being long term injured from flu.

Submitted by Myriad on September 7, 2020 - 6:24pm.

spdrun wrote:
We never had a hard lockdown in the US ... even in NYC in March-May, there were no travel restrictions to speak of, parks were open, many stores were open, de-facto outdoor dining and bars existed.

Sweden didn't have it right. South Korea, Taiwan, and Japan had it right ... "soft" lockdowns combined with contact-tracing via apps, zealous testing programs, widespread mask use, etc. I don't get why so many people are getting their titties in a bind about mask use here in the USA -- it's the socially least costly way of controlling viral spread.

Right, if people wore a mask, followed social distancing, limited large gatherings, SD wouldn't have had a 2nd shutdown of dining.

As as shitty at the CCP is, they were serious about the lockdowns. People couldn't leave their apartments, any travel outside was severely restrained, and people were constantly monitored.
(not advocating it, just stating the facts here).
People in the US should have taken it really seriously back in Feb, when China locked down a city right before Chinese NY. If they were taking that action AND allowing the world to find out, it was really f**king bad.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 8, 2020 - 11:23am.

“Sweden has gone from being the country with the most infections in Europe to the safest one.”

https://summit.news/2020/09/08/sweden-cl...

Submitted by ltsddd on September 8, 2020 - 11:56am.

Let's put it in perspective.
https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousd...

"However, on a per-capita basis, Sweden far outpaces its Scandinavian neighbors in COVID deaths, with 567 deaths per million people compared with Denmark's 106 deaths per million, Finland's 59 deaths per million, and Norway's 47 deaths per million. The Swedish figure is closer to Italy's 581 deaths per million."

BTW., not having a lock-down as part of a plan is not the same as not having a lock-down b/c our leader is clueless or was hoping for a miracle to happen in April.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 8, 2020 - 5:02pm.

Sweden's numbers are very similar to France, Spain and most the rest of Europe as well as USA and most the rest of the America's.

So either we do a completely crappy job at lock downs or they realty don't work here for a variety of reasons IMO.

Submitted by pencilneck on September 9, 2020 - 3:29pm.

"Previously, in the world of infectious diseases, it has been accepted that a ‘case’ represents someone with symptoms, usually severe symptoms, usually severe enough to be admitted to hospital."

Nonsense.

HIV positive, for example, is considered a case of infectious disease even when the person shows no symptoms.

I skimmed bits of it, but didn't read the article.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 9, 2020 - 6:02pm.

even trump is admitting its serious. unless.. this is more 4d chess...

Submitted by sdduuuude on September 10, 2020 - 2:05pm.

pencilneck wrote:
"Previously, in the world of infectious diseases, it has been accepted that a ‘case’ represents someone with symptoms, usually severe symptoms, usually severe enough to be admitted to hospital."

Nonsense.

HIV positive, for example, is considered a case of infectious disease even when the person shows no symptoms.

Can you cite a source on that ?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 10, 2020 - 4:05pm.

NY-times is saying the covid tests are far too sensitive with up to a 90% false positive rate, meanwhile hospitalization and death rates are falling like a rock.

Submitted by pencilneck on September 10, 2020 - 4:51pm.
Submitted by gzz on September 10, 2020 - 7:19pm.

Sweden is less wealthy and more urban than Norway Finland and Denmark.

There’s a big random factor in covid19 too. Belgium and Lombardy got hit very hard compared to similar neighboring areas.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 11, 2020 - 7:36am.

Thing is they are now the safest (with concerns of Covid) country in Europe.

Spain with the strictest lock-downs now has raging new outbreak.

Submitted by utcsox on September 11, 2020 - 10:44am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
NY-times is saying the covid tests are far too sensitive with up to a 90% false positive rate, meanwhile hospitalization and death rates are falling like a rock.

link, please? Which test(s) specifically have a 90% false positive rate? I find it hard to believe that testing sites use these tests if they know the false positive rate is at 90%.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 11, 2020 - 11:02am.
Submitted by utcsox on September 11, 2020 - 11:50am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/29/health/coronavirus-testing.html

Thanks. I think a better summary of the article will be the tests are too sensitive to identity potentially infectious patients. This doesn't mean those tests have up to 90% false positive rate.

Submitted by biggoldbear on September 11, 2020 - 11:54am.

The "false positives" noted by the NYT article refer to cases where the viral nucleic acid was detected, but at "low" levels.
There are many reasons why a sample my have a low target amount:
1. There is high variability between samples taken, even severely ill patents have days with no/low detectable target followed and preceded by high viral load measurements.
2. Patient is at early stage of disease, some of these progress to very high viral load, some remain very low and are typically asymptomatic.
3. Patient was exposed to virus/nucleic acids, but never truly infected. (it's estimated that it takes ~1000 infectious viral particles to cause an infection in ~50% of people)
4. True false positive- patient had no target nucleic acid, some contamination from collection through processing introduced the target. This is typically <1%(It is extremely rare for the vast majority of these tests to have false positives due to chemistry or off-target amplification)

Initially, the focus was on getting the best sensitivity possible, as the risk of a false negative spreading to others far outweighed the risk of a false positive self-isolating. Now that a single false positive can shut down a classroom/business/etc. more focus is being paid to determining if someone is truly a risk to spread to others.

The NYC article extremely overstated the utility of Ct values by themselves. While Ct values can give some semi-quantitative value, the variability between assay, specimen type, lot, etc. makes it impossible to draw any conclusions from that single number. Any test that wanted to look at viral load would need to run standards to give a quantifiable number, and the value would need to be based on copies per number of cells collected (for most sample types) to have any ability to compare.
Here is a good explanation:
https://doi.org/10.1016/S1473-3099(20)30424-2

tl;dr: The vast majority of positives came from patients with CoV-2 nucleic acid in their sample. Any effort to further stratify risk by viral load will take much more than the information we have on hand.

Submitted by biggoldbear on September 11, 2020 - 12:20pm.

With so much conflicting data/interpretations with regards to the number of cases and deaths from Covid, I tried to find the most unbiased data set, that couldn't be influenced by testing volume or personal judgement. Looking at the overall number of deaths, it is clear that Covid-19 is very serious and deadly.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid...
US Excess deathsUS Excess deaths
The number of excess deaths in the US closely match (and are even higher) than the Covid death tolls published. It far outpaces any flu season, you can see compared the the 2018 "bad" flu year.

If you want to see what unmitigated spread looks like, look no further than NYC where just days/weeks of exponential spread led to death rates almost 8X normal. Not to mention the even higher number of people with serious, and possibly long-lasting symptoms that didn't die.
NYC Excess DeathsNYC Excess Deaths

Take a look at the different states, you will see the excess deaths closely match the various outbreaks. This is not just overblown media hype, it needs to be taken seriously.

Personally, I'm not in favor of full-shutdowns except to combat severe spikes (e.g. NYC). With proper social distancing and mask-wearing, together we can push the average transmission rate below 1 and continue to live our lives.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on September 11, 2020 - 2:32pm.

IMO Lock-downs, forced biz closing and school closing is not really doing much to prevent the spread in SoCal and USA and is doing far more harm than good.

Like NYC and Sweden I think we are close to burnout.
Its about run its course IMO.
Lock-downs did not really do much IMO.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on September 13, 2020 - 1:47pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO Lock-downs, forced biz closing and school closing is not really doing much to prevent the spread in SoCal and USA and is doing far more harm than good.

Like NYC and Sweden I think we are close to burnout.
Its about run its course IMO.
Lock-downs did not really do much IMO.

LOL

Submitted by Escoguy on September 13, 2020 - 2:50pm.

I do a daily sinus rinse. A young man I know tested positive last week, my wife was briefly at the house (5 min), they both did the daily sinus rinse and are ok.

Wife never showed symptoms, probably won't bother to test.

A guy I work with went to dinner with three men, they all tested positive, he did the daily sinus rinse and didn't test positive.

I know it's anecdotal but hey.

Comment viewing options

Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.