interest rates in the USA v other advanced economies

User Forum Topic
Submitted by gzz on December 17, 2018 - 12:09pm

Ten Year Bond Rates

USA 2.86
Canada 2.06
Germany 0.25
UK 1.26
France 0.73
Spain 1.40
Holland 0.41
Switzerland -0.24
Japan 0.02
Australia 2.44
New Zealand 2.45
Hong Kong 2.03
South Korea 2.00

In other words, we have the highest of any major advanced economy!

While this certainly could continue to be the case, at some point I think people collecting 0.25, 1%, etc a year in other countries will decide instead to move their cash here and buy US Bonds. That will lead to... lower mortgage rates and higher RE prices!

They really should have bought our bonds years ago. They could then have not only earned higher interest rates, but could have taken advantage of the dollar's recent appreciation.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 9, 2020 - 3:45pm.

I have been dong some reading and we also have the highest real estate rents of the advanced economies. It’s more profitable to invest in US real estate.
I have a new tenant from Germany who’s here on a project. He said that the rents and costs of living here are ridiculous. I was thinking: “Maybe in the future I can take my US earning and hang out in Germany for a while”. It makes sense to have US income and live overseas — location arbitrage.

Submitted by gzz on February 27, 2020 - 12:00pm.

Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.

Submitted by carlsbadworker on February 27, 2020 - 5:27pm.

gzz wrote:
Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.

Then:
USA 2.86
Canada 2.06
Germany 0.25
UK 1.26
France 0.73
Spain 1.40
Holland 0.41
Switzerland -0.24
Japan 0.02
Australia 2.44
New Zealand 2.45
Hong Kong 2.03
South Korea 2.00

Now:
USA 1.28
Canada: 1.16
Germany: -0.50
UK: 0.49
France: -0.24
Spain: 0.33
Holland: -0.39
Switzlerland: -0.78
Japan: -0.10
Australia: 0.88
New Zealand: 1.22
Hong Kong: 1.22
South Korea: 1.42

USA is still pretty high. Negative rate, here we come!

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 27, 2020 - 5:51pm.

Record deficit and debt. No inflation.
The laws of economics have been suspended I suppose. Where are the fiscal hawks?

Submitted by Coronita on February 27, 2020 - 5:51pm.

carlsbadworker wrote:
gzz wrote:
Wow, 2.86 when i posted this, and 1.28 right now.

Then:
USA 2.86
Canada 2.06
Germany 0.25
UK 1.26
France 0.73
Spain 1.40
Holland 0.41
Switzerland -0.24
Japan 0.02
Australia 2.44
New Zealand 2.45
Hong Kong 2.03
South Korea 2.00

Now:
USA 1.28
Canada: 1.16
Germany: -0.50
UK: 0.49
France: -0.24
Spain: 0.33
Holland: -0.39
Switzlerland: -0.78
Japan: -0.10
Australia: 0.88
New Zealand: 1.22
Hong Kong: 1.22
South Korea: 1.42

USA is still pretty high. Negative rate, here we come!

I said this before. race to the bottom.

Submitted by svelte on February 27, 2020 - 6:38pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I have been dong some reading and we also have the highest real estate rents of the advanced economies. It’s more profitable to invest in US real estate.
I have a new tenant from Germany who’s here on a project. He said that the rents and costs of living here are ridiculous. I was thinking: “Maybe in the future I can take my US earning and hang out in Germany for a while”. It makes sense to have US income and live overseas — location arbitrage.

Instead of posting generalizations, you should bring data.

2018 Housing Cost as share of Income by Country2018 Housing Cost as share of Income by Country

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 27, 2020 - 7:32pm.

I didn’t look at data. But talking to various people, I find that US rents are some of the highest, in dollar terms. Our salaries are also higher; and purchase prices are lower— not in San Francisco but in places such as Phoenix.

Another advantage the USA has is that we don’t need licenses to rent out our homes. Just post an ad and find a tenant.

Submitted by svelte on February 28, 2020 - 8:25am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
I didn’t look at data.

I know that. Or you would have known that what you posted isn't backed by fact.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on February 28, 2020 - 11:46am.

facts that I collected. The data you posted are rents relative to income.
An investor would look at income only. Plus the strong dollar makes US revenue pretty good right now.

Submitted by gzz on March 3, 2020 - 12:12pm.

USA Ten Year falls below 1%!

Submitted by spdrun on March 3, 2020 - 1:13pm.

Stocks still down a few %. Hope the fall continues till it looks like 2008 ... having half their portfolios wiped out will expunge a lot of people from the property markets. People who are worried about money don't feel rich, and people who don't feel rich hunker down and don't buy property.

This isn't due to COVID... this is a long-overdue deflation of Trumpy's "big, ugly, fat bubble." Remember when he said those words. Remember him bitching about the Fed keeping rates low to help Obama? Hope he's eating them now!

Ride the Slide!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4xn9jLy_...

Submitted by gzz on March 3, 2020 - 11:03pm.

Spdrun, you’ve been missing out on our swole portfolio gainz for like 8 years now, waiting for that correction that never comes.

Come on, join the party, you have nothing to lose but your chains!

Submitted by spdrun on March 3, 2020 - 11:36pm.

Oh, it'll come ... it's always "different this time" until it's not. COVID-19 is just an excuse or a catalyst for a long-overdue shitshow. Remember the 90s, with the "end of history?" Then came the 2000 dot.BOMB crash, and life was fun again.

I don't want to HAVE to invest or take risks. I hope that we get national healthcare, etc, in the next 5-10 years so I can lead the rest of my life in comfortable mediocrity, working 30 hours a week, without having to strive, scrimp, or stress, just being comfortable, safe, and protected. That's my goal: safe, comfy mediocrity, and a crisis that flips the 2020 election blue is the best hope of achieving that.

The goal isn't even investment anymore, just getting a country where I can live in comfort without trying too hard or competing.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 3, 2020 - 11:59pm.

spdrun wrote:
Oh, it'll come ... it's always "different this time" until it's not. COVID-19 is just an excuse or a catalyst for a long-overdue shitshow. Remember the 90s, with the "end of history?" Then came the 2000 dot.BOMB crash, and life was fun again.

I don't want to HAVE to invest or take risks. I hope that we get national healthcare, etc, in the next 5-10 years so I can lead the rest of my life in comfortable mediocrity, working 30 hours a week, without having to strive, scrimp, or stress, just being comfortable, safe, and protected. That's my goal: safe, comfy mediocrity, and a crisis that flips the 2020 election blue is the best hope of achieving that.

The goal isn't even investment anymore, just getting a country where I can live in comfort without trying too hard or competing.

That ain’t never gonna happen in USA or anywhere in the world except for small places like Switzerland or Norway (the irony is that they have the biggest sovereign wealth fund invested in competitive countries like the USA).

The USA is not safe in bad neighborhoods. Too many guns and drugs.

You have to be competitive in this world. It’s kind of unfortunate that we self-induce the stress.... but such is life.

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 12:07am.

The rhetoric has shifted to the left ... even "Slow Joe" Biden is calling for a public option for hellth in$urance. All it will take is a recession at the right time (in the next few months) to turn Congress and the White House blue enough to make it happen.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 4, 2020 - 12:45am.

No. American blue is like British right.

You shouldn’t hold your breath for the society you want. Ain’t never gonna happen.

On the bright side, Americans have the highest salaries and purchasing power in the developed world. Spd, you should sacrifice a few years, invest and move to another country. Then take your USD investment earnings to supplement local wages.

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 8:33am.

This country is moving in that direction, like it or not, at least on the state level...

* NY State did free tuition in state and city universities
* Marijuana is being legalized in states across the US; no one thought it would be in the 1990s.
* Every Democratic presidential candidate wants a public option for hellth in$urance, even "Slow Joe" Biden

All it will take is a recession to tip this country blue this year, and away we go. I don't need to "take a few years" slaving for some fucking asshole to move out of this stinking excuse country, though; all I need is to sell or ATM a property LOL.

Submitted by Coronita on March 4, 2020 - 8:45am.

spdrun wrote:
This country is moving in that direction, like it or not, at least on the state level...

* NY State did free tuition in state and city universities
* Marijuana is being legalized in states across the US; no one thought it would be in the 1990s.
* Every Democratic presidential candidate wants a public option for hellth in$urance, even "Slow Joe" Biden

All it will take is a recession to tip this country blue this year, and away we go. I don't need to "take a few years" slaving for some fucking asshole to move out of this stinking excuse country, though; all I need is to sell or ATM a property LOL.

lol, maybe it's not the boss that's the asshole. One time. ok, maybe. Twice...mmmm ....Three times....at that point there's only none variable that is constant, and it's not the boss. :)

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 8:56am.

Anyone who makes me slave more than 50 hours a week for them is an asshole... I don't enjoy working; it just makes me feel ill and tired. But American society is also the asshole for accepting those conditions of employment and life. Civilized countries limit working hours to 35-40 per week and require boss scum to give at least a few weeks of blessed vacay to everyone. Thus, I wish for either the collapse or reform of society.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on March 4, 2020 - 9:14am.

spdrun wrote:
Anyone who makes me slave more than 50 hours a week for them is an asshole... I don't enjoy working; it just makes me feel ill and tired. But American society is also the asshole for accepting those conditions of employment and life. Civilized countries limit working hours to 35-40 per week and require boss scum to give at least a few weeks of blessed vacay to everyone. Thus, I wish for either the collapse or reform of society.

You sound like a real ladykiller. They must line up for a chance to be with you

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 9:25am.

Fortunately, there's an app for that ... LOL! Commitment is overrated, especially if it traps you into marriage and you have to get a "real jerb", move to the suburbs, and be a "provider" because the government doesn't provide basic services like daycare, health insurance, and college for a simple tax payment. I hope for a childless existence or one kid at most. Responsibility and commitment are overrated; irresponsibility and freedom in personal life is called "self-care" and is something that should be celebrated and nurtured. Plus there's the environmental aspect ... ZPG should be a goal, not a joke.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on March 4, 2020 - 9:28am.

spdrun wrote:
Fortunately, there's an app for that ... LOL! Commitment is overrated, especially if it traps you into marriage and you have to get a "real jerb", move to the suburbs, and be a "provider" because the government doesn't provide basic services like daycare, health insurance, and college for a simple tax payment. I hope for a childless existence or one kid at most. Responsibility and commitment are overrated; irresponsibility and freedom in personal life is called "self-care" and is something that should be celebrated and nurtured. Plus there's the environmental aspect ... ZPG should be a goal, not a joke.

You don't need an app to watch porno and rub one out. Your self care doesn't seem to be helping

Submitted by gzz on March 4, 2020 - 9:36am.

It ia different this time because (1) structural changes to the economy reward cities like San Diego (2) demographic, economic, and political changes worldwide have led to permanently low nominal interest rates, new construction, and inflation.

Partly why we had a bubble in the first place: prices overshot the trends.

The 1999 Internet stock bubble was the same: it didn’t mean the Internet was a fad or a bad place to invest.

San Diego is great to work hard in and be retired in.

Work low stress 30 hour a week job? Not so much. Much of the rest of America is better for this, many family members in the midwest feel like you do, and they make it work because large nice houses cost $100,000 and basic apartments are $400 a month.

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 9:49am.

It's always different this time ... until it's not. I don't want to live in the Midwest, and have to drive a car everywhere. I love trains. Trains are beautiful. I love riding them, love watching them. I think somewhere like Prague (with generally liberal "moral" laws and good social safety net) would be more in line with what I don't hate than the majority of this fucking rat-grinder of a country.

This is a more beautiful sight to me than any Ferrari or Tesla. Fast, clean electric train:

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on March 4, 2020 - 9:53am.

Then just go! Find your happiness. It's not here and nothing is holding you back. Just a word of warning though. Sex will still be scary the first time you have it. You'll be all alone

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 10:04am.

^^^

You seem to talk about it a lot ... people who don't have it, talk about it. I could say worse, but I'll take the high road here...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 4, 2020 - 10:12am.

gzz wrote:

Work low stress 30 hour a week job? Not so much. Much of the rest of America is better for this, many family members in the midwest feel like you do, and they make it work because large nice houses cost $100,000 and basic apartments are $400 a month.

$100k is cheaper than the 3rd world.
The US does have cheap housing. And you could live near the beach in some podunk town in the south cheap anywhere. But not jobs, shit eduction for the kids and no free university.

I hear that people in Switzerland and Germany live charmed existences
in rent controlled apartments all their lives — walkable to town, near public transport. Seems unfair to the property owners who aren’t able to get what the market will bear.

In Europe many stores are closed on sundays so you can’t go shopping.

Submitted by spdrun on March 4, 2020 - 10:15am.

So people are forced to go for a walk in nature, have a nice dinner with family, go to a church if they believe in a skydaddy, instead of spending their entire existence working or blowing money. What's so bad about that?

Submitted by Coronita on March 4, 2020 - 10:33am.

spdrun and brian, can you do me favor? Can you please tell me with 100% conviction that we are going to see the stock market correct more and we are going to have a recession this year? Because it certainly seems that when you emerge from hiding and start post these things in piggs, the markets move in the opposite direction and start moving up again. Can you tell use how happy you will be to see a market crash and recession again, about 5-6 more times? Thanks!

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on March 4, 2020 - 10:41am.

spdrun wrote:
^^^

You seem to talk about it a lot ... people who don't have it, talk about it. I could say worse, but I'll take the high road here...

You....high road? Ummmm ok, if you say so

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