Inflation... what inflation?

User Forum Topic
Submitted by an on May 19, 2021 - 10:19am

Submitted by an on May 21, 2021 - 11:01am.

You nailed it Coronita

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 11:07am.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
That is not what either of us are arguing. We aren't saying more people. We are saying more highly compensated and rich people. These days po folk need not apply

Perhaps due to changing job environment, but not necessarily related to remote work, which I don't believe is going to be major factor one way or the other relating to SD home values in the long run.

And the fact remains that RE values are going up all over the Country, not just SD. SD is going up more, admittedly. But is that difference really attributed to all of these new high paying jobs, or, is it just the good old sunshine tax we've always had.

Because your track record of anticipating the markets moves is stellar. And thank you for finally admitting I was correct all along. Things are going up here more. A lot more

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 11:11am.

an wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Question for Corona and AN related to Engineer's salaries. What website do you use to see San Diego salary data? Has it shown significant salary increases in recent years for apples to apples jobs (i.e. inflation)?

Many of you have been reporting big increases in salary and/or difficulty hiring. It sounds to me like you guys are hiring for very niche positions. Although admittedly I am one of those folks you mentioned that is stuck in 90s/00s technology and mentality so the jobs you describe are completely Greek to me.


There isn't one place for this data. For me, it's a combination of talking with recruiting team (they do a yearly salary assessment and they ask every candidates what their salary expectation are), looking at what candidate's salary expectations are for the positions we have open, and keeping tab on LinkedIn. I'm seeing signification salary increase in the last few years.

We're on the MERN stack, so definitely not niche. If you do web development, this is the most popular stack and have the biggest pool of candidates.

Do you use Indeed and Linkedin to find candidates? I may need to do some hiring this year so need to get prepared. Also, I want to be knowledgeable on salary situation so I can take care of the folks that work for me. Looking back at last year, my company provided less than 2% for COLA. I guess they got that number from some questionable government figures but we all know cost of living is rising way more quickly than that, especially in SD. With that small of COLA raise our salaries are going down in real terms big time.

I've never heard of MERN, will have to look that up.

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 11:15am.

sdrealtor wrote:

Because your track record of anticipating the markets moves is stellar. And thank you for finally admitting I was correct all along. Things are going up here more. A lot more

We'll see what the future holds. But if you are so certain of that, I assume you have invested 100% of your money into SD RE. Buy now or be priced out forever. Opportunity of a Lifetime.

Submitted by an on May 21, 2021 - 11:31am.

deadzone wrote:
Do you use Indeed and Linkedin to find candidates?
Yes when I was Head of Engineering at an early stage startup. But now, the recruiting team is responsible for that. But I do mobilize my LinkedIn network to point them to the job postings.

deadzone wrote:
Looking back at last year, my company provided less than 2% for COLA. I guess they got that number from some questionable government figures but we all know cost of living is rising way more quickly than that, especially in SD. With that small of COLA raise our salaries are going down in real terms big time.

COLA is pointless in engineering IMHO. At least in my entire career experience. If you're only giving COLA, the good one will leave.

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 12:06pm.

Yes I agree with you about the COLA being worthless. That's why I want to arm myself with as much salary data as possible. Mainly for taking care of my own people, I may need to get into it with the company execs if they are not willing to give more realistic raises this year.

Submitted by Coronita on May 21, 2021 - 3:13pm.

.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 2:32pm.

deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:

Because your track record of anticipating the markets moves is stellar. And thank you for finally admitting I was correct all along. Things are going up here more. A lot more

We'll see what the future holds. But if you are so certain of that, I assume you have invested 100% of your money into SD RE. Buy now or be priced out forever. Opportunity of a Lifetime.

More nonsense. Put down the punch cards, I'm well diversified as well as well invested in secure prime SD real estate

Submitted by Coronita on May 21, 2021 - 3:33pm.

deadzone wrote:
Yes I agree with you about the COLA being worthless. That's why I want to arm myself with as much salary data as possible. Mainly for taking care of my own people, I may need to get into it with the company execs if they are not willing to give more realistic raises this year.

Why do you feel you need to arm yourself with salary data in order to negotiate your compensation in CA?

If you aren't already aware, state law prohibits potential employers from asking you salary/compensation history from your current or previous employer in determining compensation for your next opportunity.

https://www.hrdive.com/news/salary-histo...

Now, if you voluntarily give your information about your compensation, they obviously can use it to determine your future compensation, but you are not obligated to answer what your salary history or required to provide proof of what your previous compensation history was...

So you can play it two ways. If you had a great compensation package, that otherwise would be unbelievable, I think it would be helpful to volunteer that information with proof so it it removes any doubt you made that.

If on the other hand your compensation was shitty, you aren't obligated to say anything. At most the only thing they will ask you is "what are compensation requirements" or "this is what we are willing to pay you"... And you can negotiate from there, assuming there is mutual interest up to that point.

Most of the people that I know that jumped ship wasn't really looking to move in the beginning. They got hit up by a recruiter on linkedin, who asked them if they were willing to consider a new opportunity, they casually said "I'm always open to opportunity but not really actively looking", did a few rounds of informal meet and greet, and then if the company actually was interested, threw out a comp number that was big enough for them to motivate to move, thinking well if the new company gave what they wanted, they would seriously consider it, not thinking that it would happen...And then the new company gave the comp package that they threw out there. Usually, when a recruiters contacts me about a opportunity, I usually go through the motion of talking the recruiter and then the hiring director/VP, because you never know what you might find...and even if it's not something that I'm interested in or I'm not a good fit, I always leave a note with that person "well, it's nice to meet you. I know you're looking for people and if there's anyone on my network you think that might fit what you're looking for, feel free to reach out to me and I can put you in contact with anyone you might think is interesting"... It's goodwill to do this. Because while, you might not have landed a fitting job with that person, maybe you can help him find someone that is. And then maybe that person remembers you, and he/she runs into someone looking for someone with your background, maybe he'll put you in contact with that person...if you do that enough, it increases you're chances of finding a better gig. Might not be today, tomorrow, or the next month...There's certain point that finding a next job is more about who you know and your reputation than going through the bottom up approach of applying for job through HR...

The other thing I've learned is if you have to pick and choose between pissing off your engineers or pissing off your VP.. Piss of the VP. Why? Because especially for a lot of those younger hot shot engineers. Those engineers give or take a few years will end up being directors and VP's, and chances are, how well you treated them (or not) will have a direct impact on what sort of opportunity you might have in the future, when you might end up working for them because they got on a luckier path than you did... Just recently, I had a former employee asking me if I wanted to fill an open manager position because his boss moved up. I wasn't interested in the position, because generally I don't like moving backwards to a lower position, unless there's a good reason to, but the boss seemed like a good guy.

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 6:25pm.

I'm not really worried about my people leaving. I just want to protect them from getting screwed by an eroding salary due to my company being out of touch with inflation in San Diego.

Submitted by an on May 21, 2021 - 7:49pm.

deadzone wrote:
I'm not really worried about my people leaving. I just want to protect them from getting screwed by an eroding salary due to my company being out of touch with inflation in San Diego.

If they've been getting COLA of 2% for many years, then they're well below market. If they haven't left yet, then why even try now?

Submitted by deadzone on May 21, 2021 - 8:29pm.

Yes but inflation is way higher now than it has been so it is more of an issue now. And I actually care that they don't get screwed. I already pointed out that my motivation is not that I am worried they will leave at this point.

Submitted by utcsox on May 21, 2021 - 9:25pm.

..

Submitted by an on May 21, 2021 - 9:30pm.

deadzone wrote:
Yes but inflation is way higher now than it has been so it is more of an issue now. And I actually care that they don't get screwed. I already pointed out that my motivation is not that I am worried they will leave at this point.

Engineer salary has been outpacing inflation for many years. If you haven't been keeping them current with market all of this time, I'm confused why start now? It also much harder to bring them current with one big jump.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 21, 2021 - 10:32pm.

Coronita wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Yes I agree with you about the COLA being worthless. That's why I want to arm myself with as much salary data as possible. Mainly for taking care of my own people, I may need to get into it with the company execs if they are not willing to give more realistic raises this year.

Why do you feel you need to arm yourself with salary data in order to negotiate your compensation in CA?

If you aren't already aware, state law prohibits potential employers from asking you salary/compensation history from your current or previous employer in determining compensation for your next opportunity.

https://www.hrdive.com/news/salary-histo...

Now, if you voluntarily give your information about your compensation, they obviously can use it to determine your future compensation, but you are not obligated to answer what your salary history or required to provide proof of what your previous compensation history was...

So you can play it two ways. If you had a great compensation package, that otherwise would be unbelievable, I think it would be helpful to volunteer that information with proof so it it removes any doubt you made that.

If on the other hand your compensation was shitty, you aren't obligated to say anything. At most the only thing they will ask you is "what are compensation requirements" or "this is what we are willing to pay you"... And you can negotiate from there, assuming there is mutual interest up to that point.

Most of the people that I know that jumped ship wasn't really looking to move in the beginning. They got hit up by a recruiter on linkedin, who asked them if they were willing to consider a new opportunity, they casually said "I'm always open to opportunity but not really actively looking", did a few rounds of informal meet and greet, and then if the company actually was interested, threw out a comp number that was big enough for them to motivate to move, thinking well if the new company gave what they wanted, they would seriously consider it, not thinking that it would happen...And then the new company gave the comp package that they threw out there. Usually, when a recruiters contacts me about a opportunity, I usually go through the motion of talking the recruiter and then the hiring director/VP, because you never know what you might find...and even if it's not something that I'm interested in or I'm not a good fit, I always leave a note with that person "well, it's nice to meet you. I know you're looking for people and if there's anyone on my network you think that might fit what you're looking for, feel free to reach out to me and I can put you in contact with anyone you might think is interesting"... It's goodwill to do this. Because while, you might not have landed a fitting job with that person, maybe you can help him find someone that is. And then maybe that person remembers you, and he/she runs into someone looking for someone with your background, maybe he'll put you in contact with that person...if you do that enough, it increases you're chances of finding a better gig. Might not be today, tomorrow, or the next month...There's certain point that finding a next job is more about who you know and your reputation than going through the bottom up approach of applying for job through HR...

The other thing I've learned is if you have to pick and choose between pissing off your engineers or pissing off your VP.. Piss of the VP. Why? Because especially for a lot of those younger hot shot engineers. Those engineers give or take a few years will end up being directors and VP's, and chances are, how well you treated them (or not) will have a direct impact on what sort of opportunity you might have in the future, when you might end up working for them because they got on a luckier path than you did... Just recently, I had a former employee asking me if I wanted to fill an open manager position because his boss moved up. I wasn't interested in the position, because generally I don't like moving backwards to a lower position, unless there's a good reason to, but the boss seemed like a good guy.

This is what we call being a mensch.

Submitted by Coronita on May 22, 2021 - 8:27am.

an wrote:
deadzone wrote:
Do you use Indeed and Linkedin to find candidates?
Yes when I was Head of Engineering at an early stage startup. But now, the recruiting team is responsible for that. But I do mobilize my LinkedIn network to point them to the job postings.

deadzone wrote:
Looking back at last year, my company provided less than 2% for COLA. I guess they got that number from some questionable government figures but we all know cost of living is rising way more quickly than that, especially in SD. With that small of COLA raise our salaries are going down in real terms big time.

COLA is pointless in engineering IMHO. At least in my entire career experience. If you're only giving COLA, the good one will leave.

i just went through this last month with my team. Theres this one engineer whose performance was bad that i was about to PIP him because a bunch of people had so many issues with his work for so long even before I was here. I ended up talking to HR and execs, and theres some twisted HR policy that basically prevents me for giving him a 0% raise even if his performance was lousy...So instead of a standard 2% cola raise, I was advised to give him a 1.5% raise to "send him a message"...WTF... But my best performers...i could send them a "token of appreciation" by giving them a 2.5% raise.....

I was laughing my ass off at this suggestion because i was like ...hmmm... if i was still an engineer and my choices were be (1l rockstar engineer and earn 2.5% or (2) be a flaky engineer and earn 1.5%.....I'd be the flaky engineer that earns 1.5%, and use my free time to moonlight in real estate or a side business...Since shit, its not like my employer is going out of their way to reward me for a stellar performance or providing a fabulois growth opportunity...or going to drastically punish me for less than stellar performance..Id hit the red easy button and do the bare minimum just to collect a paycheck to pay the bills while i would spend considerable time and energy figuring out how i should really make my net worth grow since my job wasnt going to be key and i was only doing it because its easy. that or i would be looking for a new job...or both..

In fact, there were times i was tempted to do just that... Park at a slow moving government job. i mean, the base pay might suck, but there are a lot of perks too...like great medical and dental benefits that is more important when you are older and in poorer health..
and much chiller work hours...and possibilly just easier work...

i wouldnt want to park at a job in the defense industry though. pay not good unless you are in sales, highly bureaucractic, very inflexible work structure, very little ability to move up or around unless peple above you retire or die because people in this industry tend not to move around a lot, in part because some people in this industry still have a pension carrot to keep them at the same employer for some time. oh and i dont want to be the collateral damage next time US and China gets into a pissing match and dont want to be a Taiwanese with a security clearance that falsely gets accused of espionage because thr average idiot American cant tell the difference between chinese and taiwanese and ends up fvking both of us over when they feel like it.... pass on the entire defense industry or any job requiring a security clearance....Theres one things about the defense industry...If you dont quit and move into another industry within the first 3-4 years of your career, chances you have a really high pain tolerance for getting kicked around a lot by people who are probably less qualified than you (IE bean counting program managers)...and then theres a high probability you will end up a "lifer" who will continue to work in this industry for the next 20+years for the easy job and decent benefits..Theres nothing wrong with that too, since some people hate confrontation and dont mind going with the easy flow and like i said if one had more free time, they can invest that time doing something more productive for themselves. my parents were one of them...But it took me only 2 summer internships to realize there was no way in hell the defense industry was right for me.

Submitted by Coronita on May 22, 2021 - 6:08am.

.

Submitted by utcsox on October 19, 2021 - 7:57pm.

deadzone wrote:
Yes I agree with you about the COLA being worthless. That's why I want to arm myself with as much salary data as possible. Mainly for taking care of my own people, I may need to get into it with the company execs if they are not willing to give more realistic raises this year.

Here is one data point for you from Bloomberg Businessweek. I hope this help!

"Meanwhile, salaries rose by 4.6% to $158,000 in Seattle, home to Amazon.com Inc., and by 5% in Austin, Texas, which has attracted companies like Facebook Inc. and Alphabet Inc.’s Google, and will soon welcome Tesla Inc.’s headquarters. In San Diego, a major remote-work destination, salaries jumped 9.1% to $144,000, the largest increase in the country.

“We’re seeing movement,” said Hired Chief Executive Officer Josh Brenner, “to some of these smaller markets driven by the actual lifestyle there.” He said, “people are realizing San Diego has a nice way of living, good weather and it’s by the beach.”

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

Submitted by sdduuuude on October 31, 2021 - 3:14pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I only go to prostitutes that accept venmo.

Post of the year nominee.

Submitted by barnaby33 on November 16, 2021 - 5:35pm.

Deadzone I was thinking the same thing. Remote work leads to salary compression. If you can speak English and work vaguely US hours, then you're my new competition.
Josh

Submitted by XBoxBoy on November 16, 2021 - 6:52pm.

barnaby33 wrote:
Remote work leads to salary compression. If you can speak English and work vaguely US hours, then you're my new competition.

But I wonder how true this is. Coronita is reporting that he's got to pay higher wages then ever. Personally, I'm hearing from way more recruiters than ever. Maybe it totally depends on what your skill set it, but so far I'm not seeing signs of wage compression.

I'm not sure what data would be reliable for proving or disproving wage compression.

Submitted by deadzone on November 16, 2021 - 7:42pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
barnaby33 wrote:
Remote work leads to salary compression. If you can speak English and work vaguely US hours, then you're my new competition.

But I wonder how true this is. Coronita is reporting that he's got to pay higher wages then ever. Personally, I'm hearing from way more recruiters than ever. Maybe it totally depends on what your skill set it, but so far I'm not seeing signs of wage compression.

I'm not sure what data would be reliable for proving or disproving wage compression.

The reason there is so much competition for employees, which is causing wages to go up, is there are fewer people in the work force (for whatever reasons). If all jobs could be done remotely, then clearly wages would go way down in the long run.

Submitted by Coronita on November 16, 2021 - 7:50pm.

deadzone wrote:
XBoxBoy wrote:
barnaby33 wrote:
Remote work leads to salary compression. If you can speak English and work vaguely US hours, then you're my new competition.

But I wonder how true this is. Coronita is reporting that he's got to pay higher wages then ever. Personally, I'm hearing from way more recruiters than ever. Maybe it totally depends on what your skill set it, but so far I'm not seeing signs of wage compression.

I'm not sure what data would be reliable for proving or disproving wage compression.

The reason there is so much competition for employees, which is causing wages to go up, is there are fewer people in the work force (for whatever reasons). If all jobs could be done remotely, then clearly wages would go way down in the long run.

I don't think there are fewer engineers in the work force. I just think there is more work to do. It is quite possible our economy has changed and accelerated the demand for technology and software and biotech.

For example, all this covid testing has put an enormous strain on lab resources and IT downstream to support this both at the lab level, and just at the clerical/billing/insurance level.

My company, we're busy as hell trying to get all our mobile ticketing, virtual lines, mobile food ordering, beaconing tech to work so people don't need to stand in a physical line. It's a requirement for lots of enterprise customers in the entertainment/hospitality business overseas in stricter nations. Some of the adage old systems are now being repurposed for a lot of these new opportunities, and it's bloody as hell to try to modernize some of this...We don't have enough people to go after every business.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on November 17, 2021 - 8:47am.

deadzone wrote:
If all jobs could be done remotely, then clearly wages would go way down in the long run.

I don't see any reason to believe this. If all jobs could be done remotely wages would go down in some areas and up in others. Not sure why you would think wages would go down simply because they could be done remotely.

Also, if all jobs could be done remotely, in the long run the cost of living in different areas would probably equalize much more than currently. Some areas that would be more desirable due to weather, or beauty of surroundings might be more expensive. But there would be no benefit to living bunched together in high tech areas like Silicon Valley. And currently the thing that makes most places expensive is being near high paying jobs.

Submitted by Coronita on November 17, 2021 - 3:12pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
deadzone wrote:
If all jobs could be done remotely, then clearly wages would go way down in the long run.

I don't see any reason to believe this. If all jobs could be done remotely wages would go down in some areas and up in others. Not sure why you would think wages would go down simply because they could be done remotely.

Also, if all jobs could be done remotely, in the long run the cost of living in different areas would probably equalize much more than currently. Some areas that would be more desirable due to weather, or beauty of surroundings might be more expensive. But there would be no benefit to living bunched together in high tech areas like Silicon Valley. And currently the thing that makes most places expensive is being near high paying jobs.

It's all relative. Speaking from what we just went through..Most companies in higher wage areas might marginally lower wages below their local markets, but that appears to be only in the fridges, like Bay Area where engineers were offered over $200k base or the big powerhouses that already had pretty sizable packages. And then it's just marginally lower to remote workers. For all other regions not at the high end fringe, companies have needed to significant raise wages to keep up with every other employer that is offering something higher...The high wage areas also tend to have the most jobs/opportunities, so it's not an averaging across the US. I'd say there's a few hotspots like BayArea that while might be offering slightly lower wages for remote opportunities...is still significantly above all the remaining wages offered locally across the US and there's a lot of those jobs that it drawfs the opportunities in those other local tech markets...What that is going to do is suck out the top talent from the local job pool into those much higher paying jobs that are offered remotely...And so if a local company in a lower cost area wants to retain those higher quality workers or needs to hire additional quality workers, they are going to have to play the game and offer higher wages that are now readily available remotely...

Case in point. My employee works out of Utah now. At least currently, Utah local tech wages aren't anywhere near San Diego wages....He was offered $160k from a San Diego company. To stay competitive and to keep him, we have to offer him the same or better, even though we are based in lower local wages Florida...

The alternative option would let him move on and to try to hire replacement, someone good from Florida and try to get them in at the local florida wages..But in our experience, it doesn't work. The really good people in Florida are also quitting and working remotely for the higher wage opportunities elsewhere in the U.S. remotely...So the probability of finding a very talented engineer willing to quit and join a new company at a very low locally set wage is very low because if he/she is already looking for a job, he/she is going to consider all his/her options local or remote. Afterall, if you're going to take a chance and work for a new company, why would you go through all that hassle and not consider a remote opportunity that offers 20-30-40% more?? That leave the remaining people who remain at their lower local wages who either (1) can't move (not top talent) or (2) don't want to move and don't mind the local wages (maybe there's stock/stock grant vesting and other reasons to stay)... But those are the people you won't be able to hire away anyway...It doesn't matter how badly the company treats them. They aren't going to move...

So even if you are a Florida company that wants a great engineer, you have to pay above Florida wages...And hope the local Florida employees you still haven't adjusted the compensation won't find out the newer hires are paid way more then them, get pissed off enough, and polish their resume. Other groups in my company has recently found out that gamble also doesn't work. And have to now pay more for new people that knows a lot less, dumbazzes.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 17, 2021 - 5:54pm.

The Buffet indicator (useful maybe, maybe not, everything's out of whack IMO)

https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-ca...

In a world where nothings allowed to crash.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on November 18, 2021 - 4:02am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
The Buffet indicator (useful maybe, maybe not, everything's out of whack IMO)

https://www.longtermtrends.net/market-ca...

In a world where nothings allowed to crash.

The problem with this measure is that the percentage of companies that are publicly traded has gone up over the years. 30 years ago big investment banks, like Goldman Sachs, were LLCs and not traded. I'm sure other companies that were private went public as well. So the numerator of this indicator went up without adjusting the denominator causing the indicator to skew.

(Not sure the change in the percent of companies that have gone public that previously would have been private is enough to justify the rise, but it's certainly a consideration)

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 18, 2021 - 6:49am.

hmmm good point xbox

I still think it's way over extended and out of whack IMO

We seemed to have entered a time where everyone gets a trophy and nothing is allowed to crash IMO.

Submitted by Coronita on November 18, 2021 - 7:36am.

More proof of inflation. Software services...

We use a enterprise software service from a company that does app review scraping and integration to Slack so that when someone posts an app review, we get notified on slack, and there's a bunch of workflow and automation that happens from that.

Previously, the company was offering the capability at roughly $1.50/month/per app integration... Well, exceeded our app limit of 50....And now that I want to add more seats, the company is telling me that special pricing 3 years ago at $1.50/month/per app is no longer offered.....Current prices is roughly $8/month/per app...And when I asked about why the big price jump, the sales guy said "inflation"... lol....

I'm looking for another provider....

Submitted by barnaby33 on November 18, 2021 - 10:33am.

I don't see any reason to believe this. If all jobs could be done remotely wages would go down in some areas and up in others. Not sure why you would think wages would go down simply because they could be done remotely.

Because remote work generally increases supply of labor. In the short term the bottleneck is managerial resistance to building a culture of remote work. In the medium term when companies see that groups are successful they will search for talent at the lowest cost, duh! There is no magic that says rich western countries will win that competition. Increased global supply of software engineers and other knowledge workers will generally lower salaries unless there is enough demand to hoover all of them up.

Now the counter is that as far as innovation is concerned competition for the best will go up as companies do rely on less, but higher quality employees to get shit done. Those employees do generally (at least for now) come from rich countries, but that too will change. It will change because high quality people will realize they no longer have to emigrate for opportunity.
Josh

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