Is Inflation Transitory?

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 6, 2021 - 10:34am
Inflation falls back to under 2% before end of year.
0% (0 votes)
2-3% inflation in the coming years, nothing to be worried about
10% (3 votes)
3-4% inflation but drops after a year or two
17% (5 votes)
4-5% inflation that lasts longer than the fed thinks.
24% (7 votes)
5-6% inflation and the fed is well behind the curve
24% (7 votes)
6%+ Here come the 70's all over again.
24% (7 votes)
Total votes: 29
Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 17, 2022 - 10:13am.

This could turn into 70's style stagflation in a heartbeat complete with gas lines if the Russian invasion happens.

Submitted by svelte on February 17, 2022 - 10:19am.

gzz wrote:

Rich: “Since stock prices tend to do poorly in high inflation environments”

You quoted the wrong person. Rich didn't say that, I did.

Submitted by anxvariety on February 17, 2022 - 10:30am.

IMO yes, about to be unprecedented deflation. Just picture when that 15 something trillion spigot shuts off and all the easy money in real estate over the last 12 years has been leading the lambs to the corral. When 75% of the inventory opens up because it's not possible to hit a bulls eye with every blind decision to take on more risk, we'll get to see who they had mind to hold the bag all along. What kind of sentence do you got 15 or 30 years?

Submitted by anxvariety on February 17, 2022 - 10:37am.

IMO yes, about to be unprecedented deflation. Just picture when that 15 something trillion spigot shuts off and all the easy money in real estate over the last 12 years has been leading the lambs to the corral. When 75% of the inventory opens up because it's not possible to hit a bulls eye with every blind decision to take on more risk, we'll get to see who they had mind to hold the bag all along. What kind of sentence do you got 15 or 30 years? Assume pay of 15-20$ to find out what affordability/prices will look like. How many properties will you be able to hold on to at that pay rate?

In our consulting business we have 5 people doing the work with relative ease of what normally be a 20+ person IT department. As costs goes up more will be paying attention to that IMO. If someone's a slacker(look around at your place of employment) they'll be moved into the rote hustler economy rate, 15-20$/hr.

Submitted by gzz on February 17, 2022 - 1:34pm.

"IMO yes, about to be unprecedented deflation. Just picture when that 15 something trillion spigot shuts off and all the easy money in real estate over the last 12 years has been leading the lambs to the corral."

Well it won't be shut off completely and suddenly. We just had the smaller of the two big spending plans pass (BIB), but the larger one (BBB) fail. A very scaled down version might pass later however.

While we might scrape below 0% into deflation for a month or two, I think the fed will helicopter drop money before we have sustained deflation.

Here's some data, fed spending the past three months. Starting with Nov 21 to Jan 22:

472,543
508,041
346,380
----
1,326,964

Now the same three months, Nov 20 to Jan 21:

364,819
489,682
547,483
-----
1,401,984

So a pretty big reduction in nominal federal spending, especially in Jan 2022. And the spending reductions are hitting working to middle class Americans the most, who are the ones who spend the money.

Once again, I wish there were some nice way to bet against inflation. But the market already agrees with me. 10 years yield 2%, there's obviously no expectation of sustained 4%+ inflation. If there were, investors would decamp to inflation protected assets. So how are, say, oil stocks doing? Not too great.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 17, 2022 - 2:53pm.

I would argue maybe no-one actually believes the FED will really raise rates much especially once the economy starts tanking regardless of inflation.

Submitted by svelte on February 17, 2022 - 3:14pm.

svelte wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
No expert, but IMO its complex.

Also depends on type of inflation and how long it lasts IMO.

Quick list of biz con's IMO
1) Cost more to get a loan (well it used to maybe not anymore if the fed keeps printing regardless of anything)
2) Cost more for employee's
3) Cost more for materials and equipment.
4) People try to buy less (Well after maybe exhausting their extra cash)
5) Bonds become a safer maybe better investment (well if the fed actually lets rates rise anyway)

I guess this makes sense. Bonds become a better choice, and people may have less $ to spend because wage increases may lag price increases.

Reading more articles on what is going on now, I think it is a chain reaction that causes stocks to be less favorable during high inflation periods:
1) transportation and material costs rise which are passed on to manufacturers
2) manufacturers are slow to raise prices which impacts their profit margin (thus making their stock less appealing)
3) consumers must pay for for items before they see their wages increase, giving them less money to spend on purchases which in turn
4) reduces the amount consumers buy from manufacturers further depressing company stock values

Looks like it can become a vicious circle.

And with gas (of all types) prices rising, this could very well be a repeat of the 1970s.

Submitted by gzz on February 17, 2022 - 4:13pm.

Svelte, your "vicious cycle" seems to assume everyone pays higher prices before charging higher prices. You have manufacturers paying more first before rising prices, and consumers paying more first before getting higher wages.

The 1970s inflation was exceptional in that oil was 6% of the economy, much larger than now, and the higher energy prices were shipped to foreign oil exporters.

I'll say again, inflation makes stocks more attractive, high interest rates makes them less attractive. While I don't think it will happen, if 7.5% inflation and 2% interest persists, that would be absolutely amazing for the stock market, most especially companies with a lot of fixed rate debt.

My last example was XOM. How about YUM, the fast food company. $11 billion in long term debt, about 0.5b in operating profit per quarter. If costs and prices go up at the same rate, inflation drastically increases shareholder value by eroding their long term debt. On top of the pure financial benefit, their pricing power also operates as an inflation insurance policy, like with TIPs. And their quarterly profit goes up because while other costs may increase, interest costs as a percentage of revenue will drop.

I don't think a lot of inflation is coming, so I don't own YUM. But I'd certainly be a buyer if it did. I use YUM as an example because it is really heavy in debt, though it easily services it because it is growing and profitable.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 17, 2022 - 4:13pm.

svelte wrote:

Reading more articles on what is going on now, I think it is a chain reaction that causes stocks to be less favorable during high inflation periods:
1) transportation and material costs rise which are passed on to manufacturers
2) manufacturers are slow to raise prices which impacts their profit margin (thus making their stock less appealing)
3) consumers must pay for for items before they see their wages increase, giving them less money to spend on purchases which in turn
4) reduces the amount consumers buy from manufacturers further depressing company stock values

Earlier I commented that it mostly comes down to valuation, which you dismissed as stating the obvious... now you've posted 4 theories none of which involve valuation. Which is it?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 17, 2022 - 4:19pm.

Gold showing signs of life. I have no idea if it means anything.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 17, 2022 - 5:37pm.

IMO Russia invades and we end up with $7 - $10 dollar Gas it's going to leave a mark.

Worse if we end up with real shortages (even for a few months), it could get real ugly quick. I think we are still a lot more depended on Oil than most may think.

Plastic does not fall from the sky, stuff really does not magically show up at your door (even from china).

My Opinion only.

Submitted by deadzone on February 17, 2022 - 8:27pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I would argue maybe no-one actually believes the FED will really raise rates much especially once the economy starts tanking regardless of inflation.

Really? No one believes it? Have you noticed the stock market since the Fed first publicly announced their plans to begin easing? Nasdaq already down 15% off its highs. In the same timeframe 30yr mortgage rates have increased a full percent (3 to 4) for about 30% increase in a matter of 3 months.

I would say the "market" certainly believes it.
This inflation problem is real and everyone, regardless of political affiliation, knows it is real (with the exception of gzz, he is in his own world)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 18, 2022 - 7:26am.

deadzone wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
I would argue maybe no-one actually believes the FED will really raise rates much especially once the economy starts tanking regardless of inflation.

Really? No one believes it? Have you noticed the stock market since the Fed first publicly announced their plans to begin easing? Nasdaq already down 15% off its highs. In the same timeframe 30yr mortgage rates have increased a full percent (3 to 4) for about 30% increase in a matter of 3 months.

I would say the "market" certainly believes it.
This inflation problem is real and everyone, regardless of political affiliation, knows it is real (with the exception of gzz, he is in his own world)

15 perc is nothing after this run up and these valuations.

I'd say I also don't believe the fed will raise rates in a meaningful way to combat inflation, if it really isn't transitory. There will be a lot of talk, and a little raising, but not commensurate with what might actually be effective.

I could be very wrong.

I have no idea what the right move is even if this were right which I'm not sure of. Say, 60 perc. Sure.

Basically, I do nothing. But occasionally fret.

Submitted by deadzone on February 18, 2022 - 11:07am.

The Fed balance sheet more than doubled in just the last two years. Of course this is going to cause massive inflation and is the direct cause of the current madness in the housing market, stock market, etc. The Fed money printing machine is literally our economy and has been for years.

But capital markets are already realizing the party is over. Housing stocks are getting hammered, Redfin is down 25% today. Zillow has been getting destroyed. They quickly exited their house flipping business a few months ago because they knew the party was over and they didn't want to be caught when the music stopped.

Fed has no choice but to "taper", there is too much political pressure now to tame inflation. The only way to control it is to let the markets crash. The big question is how far can they or will they let it crash?

The Fed has to raises rates significantly in order for them to come back later and "rescue" the markets again. Rinse and repeat.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 18, 2022 - 11:51am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

15 perc is nothing after this run up and these valuations.

LOL kind of the way I feel too.

Submitted by deadzone on February 18, 2022 - 12:21pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:

15 perc is nothing after this run up and these valuations.

LOL kind of the way I feel too.

Well keep watching, it's starting to get interesting.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2022 - 9:30am.

deadzone wrote:
The Fed balance sheet more than doubled in just the last two years. Of course this is going to cause massive inflation and is the direct cause of the current madness in the housing market, stock market, etc. The Fed money printing machine is literally our economy and has been for years.

But capital markets are already realizing the party is over. Housing stocks are getting hammered, Redfin is down 25% today. Zillow has been getting destroyed. They quickly exited their house flipping business a few months ago because they knew the party was over and they didn't want to be caught when the music stopped.

Fed has no choice but to "taper", there is too much political pressure now to tame inflation. The only way to control it is to let the markets crash. The big question is how far can they or will they let it crash?

The Fed has to raises rates significantly in order for them to come back later and "rescue" the markets again. Rinse and repeat.

FWIW Zillow travails Had nothing to do with the markets and everything to do with ego, incompetence and mismanagement. They over paid grossly for houses that they bought, bought many flawed properties at premium property prices and have no idea how to cheaply add value to them.

In this market it’s astonishing they didn’t make money and an indication of how badly they blow it operationally. Had they asked me I would’ve set up their business very very differently and am confident they could’ve made a killing if they had done things how I would’ve. The first thing I would’ve done before hiring a single realtor is buy a good solid home remodeling company in every market before I entered it.

I would have set up local business units in each market led by an experienced local realtors who understood how to differentiate home values based upon lot , location and layout as compared with the comparables it was using to set a price.

They were simply desperate to buy as many houses as they could as quickly as they could to build market share and shut out other ibuyer companies . It was a mess and I know people who sold their houses to them and made out like bandits. It’s hard to imagine how they could’ve done it any worse

FWIW I am not disagreeing with your overarching point. You just chose very bad examples. Zillow got killed while the market was still raging and now that it’s falling Zillow is recovering over the last month.

Submitted by deadzone on February 19, 2022 - 9:32am.

Sorry not buying that for one second, just the mainstream narrative to hide the fact that this was a giant red flag for the housing market. No chance Zillow didn't have the smartest folks and best algorithms available given their deep pockets. They bailed because they saw a top in the housing market. Flipping and I-buying only works when the prices are perpetually going up, which has been working like a champ due to Fed balance sheet perpetually going up.

So if this was just a failure in Zillow strategy, not the market, why is Redfin stock crapping the bed? OPEN and OPAD not doing much better. When Zillow failed I fully expected that in due time, Redfin would soon follow, and here we are.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2022 - 9:46am.

I know a senior finance guy at Zillow. If he’s the best and brightest I’m Tinkerbell. I don’t care if you buy it. That’s what happened! They bought crappy homes, grossly over paid and didn’t know what to do with them. They bought homes here last Spring and lost tons of money on most of them. You know how much prices soared here. How could anyone but an idiot lose money. In hindsight it was shooting fish in a barrel and they missed.

Redfin is a very different case. Real estate brokerage is not a profitable business and never was. I saw the financials of the #1 office in SD back in 04 when things were going bonkers and they barely turned a profit when 6% listing was the rule. They are investing heavily in growth now entering new markets and sales volume is tanking in most markets because no one wants to sell. Just got back from annual Florida trip. Prices spiked there also though nowhere near like here. I spent time in three friends golf course country club communities in Palm Beach County. There was barely anything for sale in the three of them and in past years there were signs everywhere. If people aren’t moving a company like redfin will have a much more difficult time selling a story of growth to institutional investors

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2022 - 9:47am.

Again I’m not disagreeing with your overarching point. You just chose the wrong examples for it

Submitted by deadzone on February 19, 2022 - 4:15pm.

Regardless, companies like Zillow and Redfin, completely jettisoning and/or losing significant money on I-buying (flipping) is a very ominous sign for the market.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 19, 2022 - 5:17pm.

deadzone wrote:
No chance Zillow didn't have the smartest folks and best algorithms available given their deep pockets.

Have you never worked for a company?

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2022 - 6:55pm.

deadzone wrote:
Regardless, companies like Zillow and Redfin, completely jettisoning and/or losing significant money on I-buying (flipping) is a very ominous sign for the market.

It is an ominous sign for iBuying not the market. Flippers continue to make a killing. It’s best done locally

Submitted by deadzone on February 19, 2022 - 8:00pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
deadzone wrote:
No chance Zillow didn't have the smartest folks and best algorithms available given their deep pockets.

Have you never worked for a company?

Zillow has a lot of money. They can buy expertise. To suggest they do not understand the real estate market is extraordinarily naive. With all due respect I think the brain trust of Zillow has more understanding of the market than sdr or anybody on this site.

If the Fed actually tapers, all flippers are going to get destroyed, ibuyer or local. Flipping only works in an expansionary environment. Perhaps that's why Zillow cut bait, they didn't want to be a bag holder when the Fed takes away the punch bowl.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 19, 2022 - 8:28pm.

Zillow has zero expertise buying and selling real estate or operating a brokerage. The have zero experience as a general contractor. Zillow has a ton of money and can buy expertise. They did not. Why they did not boggles my mind.

I have flipped homes. You do not understand flipping. Flipping is profitable in flat markets also. You make money flipping by buying well (i.e. below market) and adding value cheaply (paint, flooring, throwing in new kitchen cabinets/counters that look good but are cheap quality etc). This is where most of the flippers in SD buy materials. They bring in materials by the container from China. http://www.granitencabinet.com/about/ Go check this place out sometime. You will walk out laughing because you'll see all the materials you have seen for years in the listings for flipped houses.

Zillow bought poorly (i.e. far above market) and did not have the manpower to add value.

A rising market is the icing on the cake and good flippers do not count on it. They make money buying well and adding value. That Zillow could not make money in a rapidly rising market only speaks more to how incompetent they were

They cut bait because they realized the business was not what they thought it was

Submitted by scaredyclassic on February 19, 2022 - 9:16pm.

https://www.uaproperty.com/ua-offers/c15...

Nice place in the ukraine,pretty cheap. I'd probably try a low-ball offer on Monday. Still, the place is practically free, $7300. Wonder if it'll flip profitably once the shelling stops. House is a cozy 400 sq ft, but comes with a nice veggie garden.

Submitted by svelte on February 20, 2022 - 8:16pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
svelte wrote:

Reading more articles on what is going on now, I think it is a chain reaction that causes stocks to be less favorable during high inflation periods:
1) transportation and material costs rise which are passed on to manufacturers
2) manufacturers are slow to raise prices which impacts their profit margin (thus making their stock less appealing)
3) consumers must pay for for items before they see their wages increase, giving them less money to spend on purchases which in turn
4) reduces the amount consumers buy from manufacturers further depressing company stock values

Earlier I commented that it mostly comes down to valuation, which you dismissed as stating the obvious... now you've posted 4 theories none of which involve valuation. Which is it?

You said it comes down to valuation. But you didn't say why they might be valued lower. I'm giving reasons why a company might be valued lower:
1) a company might be valued lower because their expenses are higher (transportation and material costs) which would affect their profit margin
2) a company might be valued lower because they can't pass on the higher transportation and material costs to consumers, meaning the company profit will be lower
3) a company might be valued lower because they aren't selling as many of their widgets because consumers have less spending money because their wages haven't caught up to the higher widget costs
4) just a repeat of 3, actually

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 20, 2022 - 9:08pm.

svelte wrote:
Rich Toscano wrote:
svelte wrote:

Reading more articles on what is going on now, I think it is a chain reaction that causes stocks to be less favorable during high inflation periods:
1) transportation and material costs rise which are passed on to manufacturers
2) manufacturers are slow to raise prices which impacts their profit margin (thus making their stock less appealing)
3) consumers must pay for for items before they see their wages increase, giving them less money to spend on purchases which in turn
4) reduces the amount consumers buy from manufacturers further depressing company stock values

Earlier I commented that it mostly comes down to valuation, which you dismissed as stating the obvious... now you've posted 4 theories none of which involve valuation. Which is it?

You said it comes down to valuation. But you didn't say why they might be valued lower. I'm giving reasons why a company might be valued lower:
1) a company might be valued lower because their expenses are higher (transportation and material costs) which would affect their profit margin
2) a company might be valued lower because they can't pass on the higher transportation and material costs to consumers, meaning the company profit will be lower
3) a company might be valued lower because they aren't selling as many of their widgets because consumers have less spending money because their wages haven't caught up to the higher widget costs
4) just a repeat of 3, actually

No, you gave reasons why their earnings would be lower.

I think you are conflating price and valuation here. Valuation is how much investors are willing to pay for a given amount of earnings. Price is the product of valuation and earnings.

My claim was that the issue is on the valuation side of the equation, not the earnings side. IE, company earnings do fine in inflationary times; investors are just not willing to pay as much for those earnings.

Now, you could ask why investors are not willing to pay as much for the same dollar of earnings. This is not totally clear cut, and in some ways I think this is more explanatory than causal (ie, just because investors DO behave that way doesn't mean they SHOULD). But with that said, I think a major part is: with inflation comes higher rates, and if you can get a higher rate on fixed income, stocks need to offer a higher prospective return to compensate for their volatility/uncertainty, and this higher prospective return is achieved via lower valuations for stocks.

Submitted by Escoguy on February 21, 2022 - 9:10pm.

XBoxBoy wrote:
deadzone wrote:
No chance Zillow didn't have the smartest folks and best algorithms available given their deep pockets.

Have you never worked for a company?

When I worked at Siemens, the engineers had an expression "they all cook with water".

No one has any 'real' special sauce, either the company is disciplined or it's not.
Good controls, processes, management, realistic compensation and budgets.
It's not hard but yes amazing that Zillow could mess this one up.

Admittedly, my wife does manage many of our contractors and paints the interiors herself but sometimes sweat equity is the edge you need.

Submitted by Escoguy on February 21, 2022 - 9:13pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
https://www.uaproperty.com/ua-offers/c1579r/kiev/cheap-house-for-sale-in-ukraine-with-land/

Nice place in the ukraine,pretty cheap. I'd probably try a low-ball offer on Monday. Still, the place is practically free, $7300. Wonder if it'll flip profitably once the shelling stops. House is a cozy 400 sq ft, but comes with a nice veggie garden.

That's the kind of house my wife grew up in, her father lives further north of Kiev.
She's in Moscow now, renovating the townhouse.
Yeah, great times.
Yes, you are reading this correctly.
I think his house is with about 10K.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 22, 2022 - 11:20am.

Interesting
Russian invasion seems like a big yawn for the market so far, either no ones really paying attention or it really is no big deal.

Submitted by svelte on February 24, 2022 - 10:12am.

Rich Toscano wrote:

No, you gave reasons why their earnings would be lower.

Sort of. I'm stating that earnings will be lower and thus the valuation is lower - potential stock purchasers apparently give the company a lower valuation if the earnings are lower. Makes sense to me.

Rich Toscano wrote:

I think you are conflating price and valuation here. Valuation is how much investors are willing to pay for a given amount of earnings. Price is the product of valuation and earnings.

It appears you and I are using different definitions for "valuation". I'm using Method #1 (Market Valuation) as given under "Methods of Valuation" at this link:

https://www.investopedia.com/terms/b/bus...

It looks to me like you are using something similar to Method #3 (Earnings Multiplier)

Two different ways of looking at it, that's all.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 24, 2022 - 6:30pm.

"Valuation" can (confusingly, I admit) be used describe what an individual company's is worth, ie price. But when talking about asset classes ("stocks" being an example of such), valuation and price are two different concepts.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 25, 2022 - 12:08pm.

Hope it’s transitory!!!Hope it’s transitory!!!

Submitted by an on February 25, 2022 - 12:44pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Hope it’s transitory!!!Hope it’s transitory!!!

Of course it is. Housing will go back to pre-COVID, same goes for rent, income, gas, etc. ALL of it will just revert to pre-COVID. The only thing that won't is time. We just lost 2 years of our lives.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 25, 2022 - 2:06pm.

And 2 chicken nuggets!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 4, 2022 - 11:03am.

Inflation forecasts on the rise again

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 4, 2022 - 11:21am.

This is not the fed or the congress of yesteryear IMO.

IMO I think there is little will to do what would be necessary to fight inflation.

But just my Opinion.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on March 4, 2022 - 12:05pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Inflation forecasts on the rise again

Have you seen lumber prices (LBS) lately? Back up above $1300! Given that prior to this run up in inflation LBS was consistently below $500 that's more than double.

I realize this is just one thing. (Lumber) But wow, just wow!

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 4, 2022 - 3:21pm.

I paid $27 for a large cheese pizza this week. It was great but still…$27

Submitted by an on March 10, 2022 - 7:40am.

https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStor...

Yep, it's definitely transitory. 6%+ seem too broad now. I see 7%, do I see 8%? How about 9%? lol

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 10, 2022 - 8:44am.

an wrote:
https://abcnews.go.com/Business/wireStory/decade-inflation-high-expected-february-83358259

Yep, it's definitely transitory. 6%+ seem too broad now. I see 7%, do I see 8%? How about 9%? lol

I think we are all poorer than we thought.

Submitted by Coronita on March 10, 2022 - 9:27am.

All you folks that ended up refinancing or cash out equaity refinancing with a 3% or lower 30 year fixed mortgage must be laughing your asses off right now with the probably once in a lifetime lowest rates ever. Let the banks eat the cost of inflation....

I know I am...Congrats, and high-5.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 10, 2022 - 10:13am.

I feel so fortunate to have a 2.625% mortgage as an inflation hedge. The benefits will last for my lifetime. Glad to have had the opportunity

Submitted by an on March 10, 2022 - 10:43am.

Coronita wrote:
All you folks that ended up refinancing or cash out equaity refinancing with a 3% or lower 30 year fixed mortgage must be laughing your asses off right now with the probably once in a lifetime lowest rates ever. Let the banks eat the cost of inflation....

I know I am...Congrats, and high-5.


High 5 to you too Coronita! I pulled out as much cash as I could on my primary. Was going to do the same for my rentals but was so busy with other stuff that I put that off for early this year, only to miss the boat on those. Oh well, you win some and you lose some.

Submitted by Coronita on March 10, 2022 - 11:19am.

an wrote:
Coronita wrote:
All you folks that ended up refinancing or cash out equaity refinancing with a 3% or lower 30 year fixed mortgage must be laughing your asses off right now with the probably once in a lifetime lowest rates ever. Let the banks eat the cost of inflation....

I know I am...Congrats, and high-5.


High 5 to you too Coronita! I pulled out as much cash as I could on my primary. Was going to do the same for my rentals but was so busy with other stuff that I put that off for early this year, only to miss the boat on those. Oh well, you win some and you lose some.

Life is not about absolutes. It's about "close enough"... At least some of you folks have been telling me that... lol...

I feel like I'm in rest and vest retirement mood...lol....I'm really surprised I survived in tech for so long. I thought I would have been finished and burned out when I turned 40 and that was 7 years ago....lol.

When am I going to get my AARP membership application in the mail and start collecting social security again? lol

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 10, 2022 - 5:53pm.

So much for transitory , Treasury secretary predicts whole year of 'very uncomfortably high' inflation

Submitted by Coronita on March 14, 2022 - 7:41pm.

I so glad I bough my 5 qt jugs of oil last week and have 3 years worth of supply for 6 cars. This week, it's $10/more per 5 qt jug. 40% price increase. lol.

Submitted by JPJones on March 14, 2022 - 11:29pm.

dangit...how do I tell how I voted? I'm definitely sure I was wrong.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 18, 2022 - 1:59pm.

Food seems like about to get a lot more expensive (at least in Europe).

Get your import beer now.