Is Inflation Transitory?

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 6, 2021 - 10:34am
Inflation falls back to under 2% before end of year.
0% (0 votes)
2-3% inflation in the coming years, nothing to be worried about
10% (3 votes)
3-4% inflation but drops after a year or two
20% (6 votes)
4-5% inflation that lasts longer than the fed thinks.
20% (6 votes)
5-6% inflation and the fed is well behind the curve
23% (7 votes)
6%+ Here come the 70's all over again.
27% (8 votes)
Total votes: 30
Submitted by Coronita on November 17, 2021 - 9:08am.

Escoguy wrote:
I hope so, one tenant retired and I'm afraid she will run out of money in less than a decade.

She is only 53, now working part time.

Got to invest. Wages alone will never keep up with inflation. Many people need to learn this here in the US.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 17, 2021 - 9:09am.

Surprised you remembered that but that's what went down. Was able to wrangle an extra $3k out of BMW due to the airbag recall making my vehicle unsaleable at the moment

Submitted by Coronita on November 17, 2021 - 10:53am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Surprised you remembered that but that's what went down. Was able to wrangle an extra $3k out of BMW due to the airbag recall making my vehicle unsaleable at the moment

I don't forget details about cars. Thankfully this is a hobby, and not because I really need to save money.

Be wary of BMW stealerships. They totally try to rip people off who are otherwise ignorant... When my X5 had their takata airbags recalled, it was also info for voluntary recall to replace VANOS bolts that were breaking...The stealership had part of the top engine disassembled for warranty work...AND on top of that, tried to con me into telling me that they my oil filter cooler "gasket" was leaking and should be replaced with part of the intake and engine apart, it would be cheaper to do it now...

Part was $25 for the gasket. Labor to change the gasket was $1200. I was like WTF? If $1200 was the "cheaper" price to have the gasket replaced when things were supposedly already partly disassembled, I was truly curious how much it would have been if I just went in to replace the gasket. I was arguing with the service guy that was saying is this gasket needed to be replaced at 50kmiles, that was ridiculous crappy parts quality on BMW... The service guy insisted it was a "normal maintenance" item for a BMW with 50kmiles...with all 6 cylinder N54 and N55 engines...

Bullshit....That ended up being a total farce...The reason why the oil filter gasket looked like it was leaking because when I replaced the oil filter, I made a mess and dripped some oil into the oil area. If they actually wiped it down, they would have easily been able to tell. It's been 80kmiles..Still no leak...Fvckers...

My BMW is actually pretty reliable (knock on wood), ever since I stopped letting dealership service hands molest it.

It turns out that for some models the oil filter gasket leak is a common problem though. And for some cars, like the 3 series, you need to take apart part of the top end intake just to be able to take off the oil filter cooler to replace a $12 gasket.... Brilliant, BMW...But plenty you youtube videos to teach you how.Like this video from FCP Euro about the N52 engine.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IiYHPnWF-jY

FCP Euro is awesome... Great parts, great prices, great how to videos. And every part you buy from them have their own lifetime warranty. If you send back the part (you pay shipping), they will replace it for free...Already done it a few times on the more expensive stuff.

It even applies to wear and tear items like Brake Rotors and Pads, though I don't do that with those, because the cost of shipping those back is almost the same price as just getting new stuff.

https://www.fcpeuro.com/page/lifetime-gu...

Quote:

Yes, our lifetime replacement covers every single part we sell, including wear-and-tear items like brake pads, spark plugs, gaskets, rotors, filters, belts, wiper blades, etc. This covers every part across every brand, including OE, OEM, genuine, performance, aftermarket, and re-manufactured parts.

The lifetime guarantee is non-transferable and only applies to parts you buy from FCP Euro. You must be both the current owner of the car and the original purchaser of the parts. Additionally, as stated above, we do not cover empty containers with contents that can not be physically returned. Such examples include aerosol spray cleaners, liquid gaskets, and additives that have been discharged or emptied.

This is why I generally never buy parts from Autozone or Oreilly, unless it's an emergency, or from Amazon unless it's much much cheaper...

Autozone and Oreilly is really expensive for parts and the quality you don't know, it's hit or miss. Autozone slightly better than Oreilly.

Places like FCP Euro sell OEM or OE parts much less than what Autozone/Oreilly charges for their offbrand aftermarket parts. Shipping is free on orders over $50, and there's a true lifetime replacement warranty even on wear and tear items.

If something FCP Euro doesn't sell, I then check RMEuropean.com, which does 1-2 day shipping from Colorado, and they warranty their parts for 2 years... Also a good place to buy parts.

If they don't have it...Third place is ECSTuning...Which usually has a much larger parts selection and pricing is the same or better than FCP Euro, but they don't have any special warranty....

I hate people that buy a german car, then go cheap on parts an maintenance. I mean, you bought a german car, and you are trying to stick the shittiest oil, shittiest made in china parts into it, or do the shittiest oil change at JiffyLube which probably ends up putting transmission fluid accidentally as engine oil.... and then you wonder why an already wonky questionably reliable german car is even less reliable??? It's right up there with buying a new car, and then going cheap on auto insurance with the shittiest coverage from a cheap insurance company that is known to not pay out claims well... Makes no sense.

Submitted by gzz on November 18, 2021 - 1:36pm.

Did you actually read that article which showed nutritionally void foods are flat but sources of nutrition skyrocketed in price. Yay spaghetti, flour, snacks, ice cream, cheddar cheese, soda, potatoes, white bread , hot dogs and lettuce! And cookies!!

Actually it was more mixed than that. Sugar went up 12.5%, cheddar cheese went down 3%.

Your statement is however more example of inflationista cognitive bias and motivated reasoning. Inflation is a general increase in the price level. That's it.

The price of higher quality things going up and lower quality things not suggests an increase in income levels is causing demand for the higher quality good to substitute for the lower quality goods.

Such changes can be interesting to track, but do not mean inflation is somehow being understated.

Overall, the widely reported CPI inflation is badly overstated because hedonic adjustments are too conservative and substitutions in actual consumer baskets were not accounted for. The alternative chained CPI fixes the second issue.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Sta...

https://www.brookings.edu/blog/up-front/...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 18, 2021 - 2:35pm.

Suggestion. When you step out and its raining grab an umbrella

Submitted by gzz on November 18, 2021 - 4:14pm.

The media and inflationistas of course ignore the superior measure chained CPI because it is lower and they always hype inflation.

Submitted by an on November 19, 2021 - 1:18am.

I wonder how much prices has changed for Kool-Aid.

Submitted by Coronita on November 19, 2021 - 4:09am.

an wrote:
I wonder how much prices has changed for Kool-Aid.

When it first came out, it was $1 per packet

During the great depression,price was reduced to 50 cents per packet

Today, you can buy a packet at Vons for 39 cents

See, no such thing as inflation

Submitted by Coronita on November 19, 2021 - 9:23am.

Actually, really old packets of Kool-aid are collector's items. So not only is it inflation free. It's actually a potential investment. People pay $100-400 for old packets of Kool-aid...

https://thetakeout.com/inside-black-mark...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 19, 2021 - 9:24am.

I'm gonna go buy a pallet of Kool-aid as a hedge against inflation

Submitted by Coronita on November 19, 2021 - 9:26am.

sdrealtor wrote:
I'm gonna go buy a pallet of Kool-aid as a hedge against inflation

That's wrong. It's a speculative investment. Just like bitcoin.

You're not buying a hedge against inflation. You're buying something like a stock option into the future hoping for incredible gain... The only difference is ... unlike stock options... Kool-aid packets don't really have an expiration date... And they don't exactly go to worthless, since you could always use one to make a drink anytime...

Ha ha

Submitted by Coronita on November 19, 2021 - 9:34am.

The other things that seems to be inflation proof are

Costco Rotisserie Chicken.

Still $4.99 after all these years. But we know Costco sells these as loss leaders.

However, contrary to popular belief, Costco crossants are NOT inflation proof....Along time ago there were $2.99 for 24... Then they were $3.99 for 24... Then they were $3.99 for 18... Now they are $4.99 for 18.

Also a carton of orange juice has also gone up in price.

It use to be $2.50-3 for half gallon (64 fl oz).
OJ no longer comes in the half gallon. It's comes in 52 fl oz for roughly $3...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 19, 2021 - 9:47am.

Oh yeah!

Submitted by gzz on November 19, 2021 - 10:39am.

I like getting ancient unused things from ebay too. I have some new and sealed Hanes t-shirts from the 1960s for example. I opened and wore some while keeping some pristine.

Tip for dating old things: UPCs became big very fast around 1982.

I don't have any deadstock food, but I have some Ivory soap from the 1940s and hair tonic from about 1920. The soap was indistinguishable from new soap.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 19, 2021 - 10:40am.

gzz wrote:
I like getting ancient unused things from ebay too. I have some new and sealed Hanes t-shirts from the 1960s for example. I opened and wore some while keeping some pristine.

Tip for dating old things: UPCs became big very fast around 1982.

I don't have any deadstock food, but I have some Ivory soap from the 1940s and hair tonic from about 1920. The soap was indistinguishable from new soap.

Old sweatshirts very valuable. Loopwheeled v. Knitted. Interesting. Things were much slower to produce in the old days.

Submitted by gzz on November 19, 2021 - 10:44am.

I don't wear sweatshirts.

Thermal clothing is one of the cheaper items to find new in package from before 1970. A lot of people would buy it, throw in in the closet, and then never open it up.

Baby clothes can be cheap too because they can outgrow them before they ever get opened, and then take up little room in storage. This was a great deal I purchased a month ago:

https://www.ebay.com/itm/123164972363

Submitted by flyer on November 19, 2021 - 6:53pm.

gzz and scaredy, check everything you have that might now be a "collectible." You might find you or older family members have things you never imagined would be valuable.

My wife has been into this for years in every possible form, and it's extremely interesting. She says "the hunt" is what makes it exciting. Personally, I've been into cars since I was a teenager.

Submitted by gzz on November 22, 2021 - 2:29pm.

About 15 years ago my grandmother let me have a random box of unopened expired OTC medication from the 1950s that fell behind her bathroom counter. It went for $65 on eBay.

San Diego as a newer city isn't a great place for hunting for collectables. When I am in the Detroit area for Thanksgiving, there will be fatter pickings. I have a good eye for electronics/video games from 1975-1989.

Submitted by Coronita on November 22, 2021 - 11:18pm.

Meh. I have better things to do than go on a scavenger hunt.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2021 - 9:39am.

Dollar Tree is becoming Dollar and a Quarter Tree. Prices will now be $1.25. The change is not transitory. #gameover

Submitted by teaboy on November 23, 2021 - 9:51am.

surely we all think inflation is transitory, since most none of us believe inflation will continue to be high (say, >5%) from now until eternity.

tb
#mikedrop

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 23, 2021 - 10:37am.

Eternity is a long time. In the long run we're all dead

Submitted by flyer on November 24, 2021 - 12:47am.

Love it, sdr--so true--but it's still great that we all have such fantastic lives while we're here:)

Happy Thanksgiving to All!

Submitted by flyer on November 24, 2021 - 1:01am.

gzz wrote:
About 15 years ago my grandmother let me have a random box of unopened expired OTC medication from the 1950s that fell behind her bathroom counter. It went for $65 on eBay.

San Diego as a newer city isn't a great place for hunting for collectables. When I am in the Detroit area for Thanksgiving, there will be fatter pickings. I have a good eye for electronics/video games from 1975-1989.

Interesting gzz. Yes, you're right--this is one of those rare situations in life where older IS generally better. My wife is more into art, coins, books, gems, wine etc., along with her other projects. She's made some amazing finds at flea markets when we travel--she had one find in Paris that would blow your mind.

Happy hunting on your trip!

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 24, 2021 - 11:06am.

flyer wrote:
Love it, sdr--so true--but it's still great that we all have such fantastic lives while we're here:)

Happy Thanksgiving to All!

You're the best!

Submitted by carlsbadworker on November 30, 2021 - 2:06pm.

“We tend to use [the word transitory] to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.”

Submitted by an on November 30, 2021 - 2:39pm.

carlsbadworker wrote:
“We tend to use [the word transitory] to mean that it won’t leave a permanent mark in the form of higher inflation,” Fed Chairman Jerome Powell told Congress on Tuesday. “I think it’s probably a good time to retire that word and try to explain more clearly what we mean.”

Nothing in life is permanent. So, everything is transitory.

All high inflation period in the past ended, so this time is not any different.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 30, 2021 - 5:22pm.

At least in the 70's/80's you could get a 5-8% maybe even 11% FDIC cd LOL.

Now you just get screwed

Sarcasm on: I mean We just want to reduce your wealth by 25-50%

Submitted by XBoxBoy on December 1, 2021 - 2:13pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
At least in the 70's/80's you could get a 5-8% maybe even 11% FDIC cd LOL.

Now you just get screwed

Because it has happened so slowly, I think a lot of us fail to understand the magnitude of the war on savers that the fed has fought over the years. It's no wonder stocks are so high, investments like crypto currencies and NFTs are all the rage. Who the heck wants to buy a 10yr note paying 1.5%?

Submitted by sdrealtor on December 14, 2021 - 11:20am.

INFLATION IS TRANSITORY
July 6, 2021 - December 14, 2021
Rest In Peace

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 15, 2021 - 10:01am.

I guess the big question now is will the fed raise rates and kill the economy/housing market or let inflation run.

Interesting times.

Submitted by Coronita on December 15, 2021 - 11:57am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I guess the big question now is will the fed raise rates and kill the economy/housing market or let inflation run.

Interesting times.

A little of both.

Submitted by gzz on December 15, 2021 - 4:05pm.

There is no Fed "war on savers."

I have read the US Constitution several times. Nothing in it promises an unalienable right to high APR insured bank accounts.

The Fed's ability to set interest rates is very limited, and essentially no power when it comes to long term real rates, which are a function of supply and demand for loanable funds, which in turn are governed mainly by demographics, taxes, and technological progress.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 15, 2021 - 5:07pm.

So I guess the fed does not manipulate rates with bond buying etc...

They absolutely control short term rates.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on December 15, 2021 - 5:05pm.

duplicate

Submitted by deadzone on December 17, 2021 - 9:38am.

gzz wrote:

The Fed's ability to set interest rates is very limited, and essentially no power when it comes to long term real rates, which are a function of supply and demand for loanable funds, which in turn are governed mainly by demographics, taxes, and technological progress.

Wow, that is about the most clueless statement I've seen in a while.
Why does the Fed "own" 8 trillion dollars worth of debt (Treasury, MBS, etc)? Why does the Fed own any debt for that matter?
They literally control interest rates and have since QE began in 2008. There is no free market in any way, shape or form.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 10, 2022 - 8:43am.

More new highs. 7.5% I’d gladly take that on a CD

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 10, 2022 - 8:54am.

sdrealtor wrote:
More new highs. 7.5% I’d gladly take that on a CD

+1

IMO the whole world is just flush with cash chasing too few resources.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 10, 2022 - 4:01pm.

Barry Ritholtz had a great headline today:

"Transitory is taking longer than expected"

Submitted by Escoguy on February 10, 2022 - 9:49pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
More new highs. 7.5% I’d gladly take that on a CD

+1

IMO the whole world is just flush with cash chasing too few resources.

I bonds my friend.

Now about 7%.
My ibonds from 2001 are at 10.3%.

Submitted by svelte on February 12, 2022 - 10:08am.

Here's something I don't understand.

I've been reading that when inflation is high, stocks don't do well.

If you look back to the last period of high inflation - late 1970s, early 1980s - that appears to be true.

But if inflation is high, the value of products is higher and therefore income to companies should be higher and their value, it would follow, should be higher. Right?

Why is that not the case?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on February 12, 2022 - 10:56am.

No expert, but IMO its complex.

Also depends on type of inflation and how long it lasts IMO.

Quick list of biz con's IMO
1) Cost more to get a loan (well it used to maybe not anymore if the fed keeps printing regardless of anything)
2) Cost more for employee's
3) Cost more for materials and equipment.
4) People try to buy less (Well after maybe exhausting their extra cash)
5) Bonds become a safer maybe better investment (well if the fed actually lets rates rise anyway)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 12, 2022 - 12:41pm.

svelte wrote:
Here's something I don't understand.

I've been reading that when inflation is high, stocks don't do well.

If you look back to the last period of high inflation - late 1970s, early 1980s - that appears to be true.

But if inflation is high, the value of products is higher and therefore income to companies should be higher and their value, it would follow, should be higher. Right?

Why is that not the case?

The main issue is valuation: investors aren’t (or haven’t been, historically) willing to pay as much for stocks during times of high inflation. The poor performance in the 70s/early 80s resulted from valuations moving from somewhat high in the early 70s to ridiculously low in the early 80s.

Submitted by svelte on February 14, 2022 - 7:52am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
No expert, but IMO its complex.

Also depends on type of inflation and how long it lasts IMO.

Quick list of biz con's IMO
1) Cost more to get a loan (well it used to maybe not anymore if the fed keeps printing regardless of anything)
2) Cost more for employee's
3) Cost more for materials and equipment.
4) People try to buy less (Well after maybe exhausting their extra cash)
5) Bonds become a safer maybe better investment (well if the fed actually lets rates rise anyway)

I guess this makes sense. Bonds become a better choice, and people may have less $ to spend because wage increases may lag price increases.

Submitted by svelte on February 14, 2022 - 7:56am.

Rich Toscano wrote:

The main issue is valuation: investors aren’t (or haven’t been, historically) willing to pay as much for stocks during times of high inflation. The poor performance in the 70s/early 80s resulted from valuations moving from somewhat high in the early 70s to ridiculously low in the early 80s.

Since stock prices tend to do poorly in high inflation environments, it stands to reason investors aren't willing to pay as much for stocks. That's implied by saying stock prices do poorly in high inflation environments.

The question is - why aren't investors willing to pay as much for stocks in times of high inflation?

Submitted by gzz on February 14, 2022 - 3:18pm.

Yawn, core inflation still well below the 2% trendline.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/...

Rich: “Since stock prices tend to do poorly in high inflation environments”

(1) In prior “high” inflation periods market expectations were for sustained inflation. In 2022, the hard money elite inflation scaremongers have complete dominance of MSM discourse which they own. However, large investors are still all on Team Transitory.

(2) the next big difference is the 7.5% headline rate reflects a ton of dispersion in price changes, which reflect the pandemic shortages and the dumb subsidies we had encouraging low wage workers to leave the labor force. So used cars are up 40% while medical inflation is the lowest in decades. This just isn’t the classic inflation caused by expansionary policy which was last seen in the mid 1980s.

(3) inflation is positive for stocks in general since public companies tend to have fixed rate debt, partly fixed costs, plus pricing power. If XOM’s labor costs double and oil prices double, it will be far ahead due to its debt being the same.
This isn’t the past when inflation was accompanied by high yields in assets other than stocks. Why lock on a gain of 2.05% buying treasuries? So many great companies with 4% yields and solid earnings.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on February 14, 2022 - 5:36pm.

gzz wrote:
Yawn, core inflation still well below the 2% trendline.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2022/...

That's a whole lot different that saying we are not currently in a high inflation environment.

gzz wrote:
In 2022, the hard money elite inflation scaremongers have complete dominance of MSM discourse which they own.

Not positive who specifically you mean when you refer to MSM. But, I would assume sites like Marketwatch, or finance.yahoo.com, or other market sites or finance cable. Here's a bit of free advice, Never, ever pay any attention to these sites or channels. These sites (and channels) are driven completely by ad revenue and so are little more than click bait. They include fear mongering of all ideologies and you should avoid that nonsense completely.

Which leads me to a second point. Using references to what clickbait sites are saying completely robs your argument of credibility. It's sorta like saying, "Hey the crazy nut standing on the street corner screaming obscenities thinks..." and then using that to make a point.

Submitted by gzz on February 14, 2022 - 10:51pm.

“ Not positive who specifically you mean when you refer to MSM. ”

Everything from clickbait sites to the TV news to prestige newspapers.

NYT and Washington Post are supposed to be liberal, and are on most issues. But the idea that sustained inflation at 6% would be a positive thing for most Americans will never appear there. Instead, we get inflation scare stories and unrepresentative anecdotes about the categories with the largest increases.

I would live to make a big bet against inflation staying 6%+, which is certainly the impression both the MSM and the huge right wing counter MSM both give, in their own styles and spins of course.

But I can’t do it. Because actual money managers with billions to invest collectively and correctly see the current inflation is transitory, so there’s nobody taking the other side of the bet.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 15, 2022 - 10:16am.

So now you changed the benchmark of sustained inflation to being 6% or more? From the beginning (check OP) the benchmark has been the sub 2% inflation we’ve been seeing a long time. Anything over that is quite a bit more and it’s already been going on for a lot longer than most expected. Your horse left the barn long ago

Submitted by an on February 16, 2022 - 4:31pm.

Right, so it's transitory. Care to put a date on when it'll be back below 2%?