Is Inflation Transitory?

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 6, 2021 - 10:34am
Inflation falls back to under 2% before end of year.
0% (0 votes)
2-3% inflation in the coming years, nothing to be worried about
14% (3 votes)
3-4% inflation but drops after a year or two
23% (5 votes)
4-5% inflation that lasts longer than the fed thinks.
27% (6 votes)
5-6% inflation and the fed is well behind the curve
27% (6 votes)
6%+ Here come the 70's all over again.
9% (2 votes)
Total votes: 22
Submitted by deadzone on July 19, 2021 - 10:58am.

sdrealtor wrote:
deadzone wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
I need to dig up some threads from 5-10 years ago. You were singing the same tune

Probably, doesn't mean I was wrong then.

Keep repeating after yourself. Doesnt mean I was wrong. Doesnt mean I was wrong. Doesnt mean I was wrong.

Timing is everything! Dont forget what they say about a broken clock

Again, I never predicted when said bubble will pop. So timing has nothing to do with it.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 19, 2021 - 2:18pm.

I predict at some point in the future real estate prices will decrease. I also predict at some point they will increase. I'm going out on a limb!!

I think you may be too invested in being right. I'd rather be rich

Submitted by an on July 19, 2021 - 2:48pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
I predict at some point in the future real estate prices will decrease. I also predict at some point they will increase. I'm going out on a limb!!

I think you may be too invested in being right. I'd rather be rich


I'll one up you. I predict RE will 10X from here.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on November 10, 2021 - 11:58am.

Thought it would be worthwhile to update this thread. Below are the CPI index values with monthly change and annual change since the beginning of 2020. (Pandemic begins in March 2020)

Month CPI Monthly Annual
Jan 2020 258.687 0.19% 2.49%
Feb 2020 258.824 0.05% 2.31%
Mar 2020 257.989 -0.32% 1.51%
Apr 2020 256.192 -0.70% 0.34%
May 2020 255.942 -0.10% 0.22%
Jun 2020 257.282 0.52% 0.73%
Jul 2020 258.604 0.51% 1.05%
Aug 2020 259.511 0.35% 1.32%
Sep 2020 260.149 0.25% 1.41%
Oct 2020 260.462 0.12% 1.19%
Nov 2020 260.927 0.18% 1.14%
Dec 2020 261.56 0.24% 1.30%
Jan 2021 262.231 0.26% 1.37%
Feb 2021 263.161 0.35% 1.68%
Mar 2021 264.793 0.62% 2.64%
Apr 2021 266.832 0.77% 4.15%
May 2021 268.551 0.64% 4.93%
Jun 2021 270.981 0.90% 5.32%
Jul 2021 272.265 0.47% 5.28%
Aug 2021 273.012 0.27% 5.20%
Sep 2021 274.138 0.41% 5.38%
Oct 2021 276.724 0.94% 6.24%

The above data is for Full CPI, not Core CPI.

I wonder if the Fed governors are still thinking inflation is transitory given the last five months of annual change.

Submitted by gzz on November 10, 2021 - 12:40pm.

Ready for inflation here! Bring it on!

Sic transit gloria fiat dollari!

These are my larger and older European silver coins. The community calls these large size silver coins on the left 2/3 of the picture "crown size" and this includes the US silver dollar.

Most of these 5 Franc size, slightly smaller than the actual British Crown, which was created during the French Revolution as a "standard" along with the metric system. At its peak, France, Italy, Belgium, French Africa, Spain, Romania, Latvia, Romania, Albania, and Switzerland used the French standard, allowing a wide amount of inter-changeability before the Euro was adopted.

The standard ended up surviving all the way until the 1960s, when the last Swiss silver francs made to the standard were minted.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 10, 2021 - 1:05pm.

Bring it on? Its been firing on all cylinders

Submitted by flyer on November 11, 2021 - 6:48pm.

Always a good idea to have multiple financial options to keep the lifeship afloat for the short time we're all here, and, of course, to pass along to the kids.

Sadly, that's not always possible for those who are suffering most from this inflationary period. Should be interesting to watch how it all plays out.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 11, 2021 - 8:06pm.

I bought $300 worth of almonds, perfect bars, almond butter, Gran free granola and pecans from Costco.

I bet it'll be 600 in 9 months.

Better check expiration dates tho.

My strategy, as usual, is nuts.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 11, 2021 - 10:22pm.

Always a good idea to have multiple nut options to keep the lifeship afloat for the short time we're all here, and, of course, to pass along to the kids. I think you are all set

Submitted by flyer on November 11, 2021 - 11:51pm.

Scaredy, you can't go wrong stocking up on things you'd buy anyway, as long as you know you'll use them by the expiration dates. We do it all the time.

Submitted by Coronita on November 12, 2021 - 5:17am.

flyer wrote:
Always a good idea to have multiple financial options to keep the lifeship afloat for the short time we're all here, and, of course, to pass along to the kids.

Sadly, that's not always possible for those who are suffering most from this inflationary period. Should be interesting to watch how it all plays out.

Just stop. It's really pathetic that as wealthy as you claim you are (which I suspect if that's evenreally true), that you feel compelled to constantly try rub it in the dirt on a public blog about "sadly, those poor unfortunate people who are not as lucky as me"...Wrong audience and most people on this blog are not in the category that you are seeking to make yourself feel better with your messed up feudal overlord versus serfdom closet tendencies....Sorry to disappoint you... you were born in the wrong century if you were looking for that. Most of us are doing just fine, even if we are not as insanely as wealthy as you claim to be, and probably much happier and more content than you.

You'll end up in the dirt the same way as everyone else eventually. And honestly when that happens, lights out game over, and it won't matter what happened in the short 60-70-80 years that one was briefly here. So continue to feel good about yourself versus those people who are really less fortunate and continue to gloat about it on a public blog while you are briefly here on this earth. It won't matter because eventually we are end up the same. Your expensive Louis Vuitton coffin will not be any different than some poor guy's cheap Walmart coffin. Because both of you will be dead in the same dead way in the same dead dirt and your dead body will decompose the same way, unless you option for the cremation option or option to cryogenically preserve your head in the hopes that science can catch up and resurrect your brain with new physical body grown from stem cells one day. Ewe, no thank you, but if you have money to burn. Go for it. It might derail plans for an afterlife, if you believe in that. But that's up to you. Speaking of afterlife, if you believe in it, you'll also need to worry about if you were prick during this life. After all, if you believe in an afterlife, and the big G, you'll also believe he's all noticing, and remember every single time you were a prick during this life...including the times you felt compelled to rub poor people's plight in the dirt on an internet blog why you sat on a lofty chair from the Ritz Carlton. If you're Budhist, that might mean, you'll be reborn as an ant, that gets stepped on or fried by a magnifying glass by a rich kid spoiled brat in Rancho Santa Fe, that has nothing better to do in life. Karma. Who knows.

There's nothing wrong if you've done well in this world relative to everyone else, and certainly not something one needs to be ashamed or embarrassed of despite what some leading progressives might make people think. But seriously, poor people don't need your fake southern california shallow sympathy. In fact, many less than stellar financially successful people are perfectly happy with their life they have. They aren't the ones camping on this blog trying to personally trying to find meaning and purposem and trying to one-up others to make themselves feel better. I'd say, despite them having 10x less wealth, they are 100x happier because they are doing something meaningful in their life besides just trying to find ways to one-up others on a blog..And many of them, if they believe in an afterlife, at least won't have a guilty conscience of being prick while being here shortly.
Personally, if it was me, the closer I'm getting to end-game, the less prickish I'd try to be..Just in case....

....just saying...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 12, 2021 - 8:18am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I bought $300 worth of almonds, perfect bars, almond butter, Gran free granola and pecans from Costco.

I bet it'll be 600 in 9 months.

Better check expiration dates tho.

My strategy, as usual, is nuts.

Maybe buy a Nut tree, I saw Gates was buying up farmland.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 12, 2021 - 9:21am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
scaredyclassic wrote:
I bought $300 worth of almonds, perfect bars, almond butter, Gran free granola and pecans from Costco.

I bet it'll be 600 in 9 months.

Better check expiration dates tho.

My strategy, as usual, is nuts.

Maybe buy a Nut tree, I saw Gates was buying up farmland.

Good idea. Fruit trees, nut trees.

I haven't had a drink for 19 m and been vegetarian for several years now. The cost saving is pretty damn high. I think meat and booze was half the grocery bill.

Cost cutting is the best inflation strategy.

For the common folk, anyway.

Although I do buy sometimes some no alc. Beers, which cost the same as good reg. Beer. They've come a long way. Na IPA beers, esp. tastes like a decent IPA.

It feels wrong to pay off my 2.5 perc mortgage today, but it's tempting when I'm somewhat ahead. No one ever went broke taking money off the table, but it...feels wrong.

No one in the poll on this thread saw the 6.2 perc Oct inflation rate. Pigs, me too, expect things to be more or less like they were.

But we are o l d....

Regarding Louis Vuitton coffins...washington now permits human composting...which is amazing in results...

https://recompose.life/our-model/

This place turns you into a cubic yard of rich dirt in just a month in a special pod that maximizes the rate of decomposition. . My oldest said he'd get me up there to do this if I die before CA legalizes it. Said he'd make a nice garden bed and eat my veggies. I'm stoked. I'm not gonna be in the dirt. I'm gonna BE the dirt.

Submitted by flyer on November 12, 2021 - 9:14am.

My comments have never been intended as you described. Sorry if they came across that way.

As you said, life on earth is short for all of us, and it's my hope that everyone is as happy with their lives, and the promise of eternity, as we are.

Finally, per your request, which I am extremely glad to accommodate, I will "just stop." Enjoy!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 12, 2021 - 9:15am.

Personally I would like to see 5% money market and FDIC CD's but not likely IMO as that would crash just about everything (stocks, housing etc...).

IMO After 2008/9 fed found out it could not afford a real crash to ever happen ever again (at least one that last several years).

But that's just my opinion.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 12, 2021 - 9:20am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Personally I would like to see 5% money market and FDIC CD's but not likely IMO as that would crash just about everything (stocks, housing etc...).

IMO After 2008/9 fed found out it could not afford a real crash to ever happen ever again (at least one that last several years).

But that's just my opinion.

If your mortgage is 3.5 perc or over, you'd essentially be getting a 5 perc return after taxes for every dollar you pay it down...but it's not as satisfying...and less liquid...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2021 - 3:31pm.

Here's a real data point. I play at a local golf course most weekends with friends. I dont know if others realize but golf was dying until COVID and the pandemic rescued the sport. When everything else was shut down, it was one of the only recreational activities you could do. Courses have been packed around the country for the last 18 months. Club manufacturers have been killing it with record sales.

A year ago this course offered a package deal

5 rounds good anytime with 5 buckets of range balls and we could book tee times an extra day ahead of general public for $250

6 months ago price went to $300

3 months later range balls gone and no booking an extra day ahead of general public

Last week email goes out and its now $350

1 year ago it was $250.

Now its $350 + $40 for 5 buckets of range balls = $390

Exact same product is 56% more today and tougher to get a good time on weekends

Thats what inflation looks like

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 12, 2021 - 4:02pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Here's a real data point. I play at a local golf course most weekends with friends. I dont know if others realize but golf was dying until COVID and the pandemic rescued the sport. When everything else was shut down, it was one of the only recreational activities you could do. Courses have been packed around the country for the last 18 months. Club manufacturers have been killing it with record sales.

A year ago this course offered a package deal

5 rounds good anytime with 5 buckets of range balls and we could book tee times an extra day ahead of general public for $250

6 months ago price went to $300

3 months later range balls gone and no booking an extra day ahead of general public

Last week email goes out and its now $350

1 year ago it was $250.

Now its $350 + $40 for 5 buckets of range balls = $390

Exact same product is 56% more today and tougher to get a good time on weekends

Thats what inflation looks like

i will sell you a hackysack for $10.00 that will keep you and your friends busy for weeks on end.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 12, 2021 - 4:25pm.

hmmm seems more a supply/demand thing to me, but maybe that's how it starts, throw in a few free checks from the feds and minimum wage increases and....

Submitted by deadzone on November 12, 2021 - 4:32pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Here's a real data point. I play at a local golf course most weekends with friends. I dont know if others realize but golf was dying until COVID and the pandemic rescued the sport. When everything else was shut down, it was one of the only recreational activities you could do. Courses have been packed around the country for the last 18 months. Club manufacturers have been killing it with record sales.

A year ago this course offered a package deal

5 rounds good anytime with 5 buckets of range balls and we could book tee times an extra day ahead of general public for $250

6 months ago price went to $300

3 months later range balls gone and no booking an extra day ahead of general public

Last week email goes out and its now $350

1 year ago it was $250.

Now its $350 + $40 for 5 buckets of range balls = $390

Exact same product is 56% more today and tougher to get a good time on weekends

Thats what inflation looks like

I agree that inflation is going nuts right now. But I think golf courses in san diego is about the worst possible example. For one thing, like you said, a lot of the demand is due to Covid. This is likely a temporary thing when these new players realize golfing is hard, frustrating, time consuming and expensive. This bump in # rounds played is probably temporary. Furthermore, prices are going to go up more in san diego and west coast states due to the fact that WE HAVE NO WATER! Many of the public courses I used to play closed pre pandemic due to this fact. So there are far fewer public courses in San Diego now, compared to 5-10 years ago. So that is going to drive up prices.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2021 - 4:51pm.

I never said it was the best example just an example. I dont think its the worst example either. I actually know the GM well and was drinking wine with him on tuesday. Their big issue is course maintenance workers and the cost of them.

I dont think a lot of the demand is new players either. I think a lot of people that stopped playing have come back. Im hearing more and more people retiring earlier than planned which will keep the courses busy also. Im not seeing an uptick on hacks on the courses

This morning I grabbed myself a Machaca burrito and enjoyed it at the Moonlight Beach Overlook. A year or so ago that was $7 with tax. Its about $9 now.

And lets not get started on rents. Good luck finding a 1BR under $2K up here

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2021 - 5:19pm.

With all this inflation, at least one thing is finally free!

BRITNEY!!!

So which call was worse? The "sell everything now" or "inflation isnt real"?

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 13, 2021 - 7:55am.

sdrealtor wrote:
With all this inflation, at least one thing is finally free!

BRITNEY!!!

So which call was worse? The "sell everything now" or "inflation isnt real"?

Maybe she will pump up the economy with some wild spending

Submitted by Coronita on November 13, 2021 - 9:47am.

Wage inflation.

I just gave one of my engineers a raise. My out of touch boss was gone on vacation. My android engineer said he was approached by a company based in San Diego that offered a base pay of $160k + 20k stock options shares and healthplan benefits fully paid by employer for individual + 5% 401k match. Fully remote.

I talked to my cool senior VP.
We jumped through the bureaucracy and did a out of cycle "market adjustment". And increased base pay to by $18k to $162k, there's a unofficial bonus around 15% I think given the unexpected, good business, 401k match and health benefits about the same. And theres about an additional $25k RSU stock grants that are all or nothing vesting in 3 years.with a promise to start.his green card within 6 months.

Guy currently works remotely out of...Utah...closed on a $400k sfh that he put 50% down on....he's stoked.

I don't need to find a replacement. So I'm stoked.

There's 2 other guys that will need a market adjustments that we will need to do within 5 weeks....

I recently poached a QA engineer that has maybe 1 year of experience out of school from UCSD from a big company. He's pretty good. Have him a better comp package but also path to moving from QA to mobile development in 6 months. Old company wanted him to remain in QA role for 2 years... what a waste of talent...good luck with that one.

Pretty tough job market right now for tech employers ..first need to sort through the pool to find the good ones in the sea of not-so-good ones...then need to be competitive... thankfully I'm not running my own business.

If only my boss would quit or get fired or move out of the way, I'd be super stoked. Hopefully the latest dumpster fire he sort of created that I wasn't part of will have him move aside. I like my bosses boss. Much easier to work with.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 13, 2021 - 10:51am.

Super breakfast burrito at El Pueblo La Costa up $0.50. Next move will put it over $10 with tax

Submitted by deadzone on November 13, 2021 - 12:35pm.

My neighborhood donut shop just raised the price of standard donut from 1.50 to 1.75 since last week. A year or two ago I'm pretty sure they were closer to 1.00.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 13, 2021 - 9:18pm.

Let's call it 3. That's 75% in 3 years

Submitted by svelte on November 13, 2021 - 10:21pm.

deadzone wrote:
My neighborhood donut shop just raised the price of standard donut from 1.50 to 1.75 since last week. A year or two ago I'm pretty sure they were closer to 1.00.

In 1984-85 I worked the graveyard shift at 7-11 in norcal. That's how I put myself through college. The donuts would be delivered, put on display by my register, and go up for sale on my shift.

I'm pretty sure the prices were 40 and 50 cents depending on the donut. Standard donut was probably 40. Wonder what 7-11 charges now.

Seems like bear claws were 75.

Submitted by deadzone on November 14, 2021 - 7:14pm.

Well this particular donut shop is family owned/operated and bake their own donuts. So wage inflation is not necessarily going to directly impact them like other businesses. But it did make me raise my eyebrow when I picked up donuts the other day and noticed the charge was more than normal. Just reinforces the reality that everything is going up right now, at a much higher rate than most of our salaries. Thanks Fed!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 14, 2021 - 9:36pm.

Dammit. Now we can't say dollars to donuts anymore. Stupid inflation

"Take the saying “dollars to doughnuts.” It’s what we say when we’re really sure of ourselves. We’re so confident that we’re making a bet, and we’re betting something valuable against something that’s worth less. If I’m wrong, I’ll pay you money. If you’re wrong, just give me pastry.

An array of wordsmiths trace “dollars to doughnuts” back to the 19th century. The first recorded usage was a newspaper article in Nevada in 1876. “Dollars to doughnuts” was used matter-of-factly and without definition, suggesting it was a common saying of the day.

Betting cash against something of relatively little value wound its way into other expressions, such as “dollars to buttons” and “dollars to cobwebs.” Chances are “doughnuts” took hold because of our avid appreciation for alliteration. Other examples include “dollars to dumplings” and “dollars to dimes.”

Taken literally, “dollars to doughnuts” does not have the weight it once carried as a sign of self-assurance.

Consider that the classic Dunkin’ Donut doughnut costs 99 cents. So, literally to bet someone a dollar to a doughnut, is like saying, “I could be right, or I could be wrong. Either give me a doughnut, or I’ll give you money to buy one.” Include the sales tax, and you would be better off losing the bet because the doughnut is worth more than the dollar."

Submitted by scaredyclassic on November 15, 2021 - 12:20pm.
Submitted by sdrealtor on November 15, 2021 - 1:38pm.

The Springdale, Arkansas-based Tyson, the biggest U.S. meat company by sales, said chicken prices rose 19% during its fiscal fourth quarter while beef and pork prices jumped 33% and 38%, respectively. Signals more coming

Submitted by gzz on November 15, 2021 - 5:36pm.

I like Flyer's posts. Brian's too.

More undisguised inflation hype scare tactics from the MSM, owned and controlled by anti-inflation elites who hate the idea of the real value of the fixed rate debt they hold over the 99% being eroded by inflation:

https://jabberwocking.com/yet-another-te...

Submitted by flyer on November 15, 2021 - 8:28pm.

Thanks, gzz. Find your posts interesting as well. I really enjoy reading the posts of some who post here, and, as I've said before, the information Rich has provided over the years has been very helpful to us in making some major real estate decisions.

There have always been a few really interesting and insightful people who post here, whose opinion I value, so I'll stop by once in awhile to see if there is anything of interest. Good luck with all of your projects.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 15, 2021 - 8:41pm.

gzz wrote:
I like Flyer's posts. Brian's too.

More undisguised inflation hype scare tactics from the MSM, owned and controlled by anti-inflation elites who hate the idea of the real value of the fixed rate debt they hold over the 99% being eroded by inflation:

https://jabberwocking.com/yet-another-tedious-gripe-about-food-inflation-reporting/

Did you actually read that article which showed nutritionally void foods are flat but sources of nutrition skyrocketed in price. Yay spaghetti, flour, snacks, ice cream, cheddar cheese, soda, potatoes, white bread , hot dogs and lettuce! And cookies!!

Submitted by Escoguy on November 15, 2021 - 10:29pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
gzz wrote:
I like Flyer's posts. Brian's too.

More undisguised inflation hype scare tactics from the MSM, owned and controlled by anti-inflation elites who hate the idea of the real value of the fixed rate debt they hold over the 99% being eroded by inflation:

https://jabberwocking.com/yet-another-tedious-gripe-about-food-inflation-reporting/

Did you actually read that article which showed nutritionally void foods are flat but sources of nutrition skyrocketed in price. Yay spaghetti, flour, snacks, ice cream, cheddar cheese, soda, potatoes, white bread , hot dogs and lettuce! And cookies!!

Usually I need more than one reason to do something but for the moment my thinking is that processed grains are bad for:
1. sleep
2. mental clarity
3. the waistline/weight loss
4. long term brain health

So it makes sense that products which have adverse effects would have less demand. Imagine though if they taxed empty carbs and subsidized leafy greens.

This knowledge is coming from multiple sources within short period of time.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 16, 2021 - 8:11am.

I stocked up on Haagen and Dazs at Costco when they were 3 dollars off 15-cnt box last month.

Being happy is worth something

Submitted by Coronita on November 16, 2021 - 9:15am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I stocked up on Haagen and Dazs at Costco when they were 3 dollars off 15-cnt box last month.

Being happy is worth something

Make.your own ice cream and sherbet. Before it wasn't cost effective. Now it probably is. And sometimes DIY can be fun.

Take auto repair. My stupid BMW X5 needed a new car battery... $1110 quoted from the stealarship, $550 for battery and $600 for labor. Because BMWs have a special thing like the new battery needs to be registered with the ECU so the alternator can charge correctly.

1. NAPA battery was $198 with the AAA discount.
2. odb2 dongle to scan and program bmw was $12 (if I didn't break my old one, it wouldn't have been needed)
3. BimmerLink phone software to register battery $49
4. FRM computer module reprogramming from eBay repairer $60

Someone forgot to warn me that when you change a BMW battery never let the electronics have 0 volts. Doing so, if you are unlucky, you will brick some of the computer modules. Shitty bmw design..So always leave a battery charger or trickle charger connected when changing the battery... So I did end up bricking the FRM module. New one would have been $500 but fortunately there are eBay repair geeks that can reflash the brickedmodules for like $50-60 so BMW doesn't do a cash grab on you for their shitty design.

anyway battery replacement was $370 out of pocket instead of $1100 from stealerhip.... Suck it BMW stealers.

Car is pretty reliable if you dont let stealers molest them

Submitted by gzz on November 16, 2021 - 10:27am.

My last car battery was $66, the cheapest I have ever paid. This guy but on sale:

https://www.autozone.com/batteries-start...

They didn't ask me to pay the deposit because they kept the old battery.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 11:49am.

gzz wrote:
My last car battery was $66, the cheapest I have ever paid. This guy but on sale:

https://www.autozone.com/batteries-start...

They didn't ask me to pay the deposit because they kept the old battery.

Not surprising as you bought a super cheap economy one with a 3 month warranty. I've never even heard of that before. Your old dead one was probably more valuable

Submitted by Coronita on November 16, 2021 - 12:15pm.

gzz wrote:
My last car battery was $66, the cheapest I have ever paid. This guy but on sale:

https://www.autozone.com/batteries-start...

They didn't ask me to pay the deposit because they kept the old battery.

Umm. No offense. That's a pretty shitty battery....The stuff you would put into a car you are selling or getting rid off. It's right up there with the cheap made in china no name brand tires and the $10 economy brake rotors you can find on ebay.
The warranty on the battery is 3 months. Most decent battery at least are warrantied for 24 months at least. 36 months is standard.

And for what it's worth, that battery is expensive for a low end battery. $66 is how much I paid for a Interstate battery from Costco for one of my cars for a battery with a much larger capacity and better warranty...If you can find your battery through costco, that would be the cheapest and best place to get a battery with the best warranty... For the longest time, costco had a 4 year NON-prorated warranty. Which means if was bad at 3 year 11 months, you took it back to costco, and they would exchange it for another battery and restart the 4 year NON-prorated warranty. They changed their policy since then, but if you were grandfathered in, old policy still applies even with new battery is only 3 years/non-prorated. Unfortunately, Costco doesn't sell the correct battery for late model BMW's, Group 49...

Autozone and Oreilly batteries are generally way overpriced. The equivalent battery for the Econcraft you bought is the everstart battery from Walmart which is probably slightly cheaper for the same quality... Actually ,edit. I just looked it up. The walmart battery is roughly the same price and better because at least it's warrantied for 1 year, not 3 months.
https://www.walmart.com/ip/EverStart-Val...

And you won't find a BMW Group 49 AGM battery with at least 90AH less than $200, which is the bare minimum most BMWs require these days. Almost all BMW's use the Group 49 battery, 3 series, 5 series, and SUV. The only difference is the AH, which is 90AH for the smaller cars and cars with lower electronics, to 105AH for the larger cars with the V8's with the heavy electronics.

You can change to a larger capacity battery, but then you have to recode the ECU to take the larger capacity battery with a different software so the alternator charges correctly AND then you need to register a new battery....

NAPA Legend AGM battery has a 75 months prorated warranty. and is cheaper than just about everywhere else.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 12:27pm.

I think he bought a lawn tractor battery

Submitted by gzz on November 16, 2021 - 1:50pm.

I am selling the car, I got a new one in September. But I like the old one so have been slow to do it. I also like to haul wood, cement bags, manure compost etc in the old one.

It takes 2 mins to change my battery, so if it lasts 65% as long as $130 battery, I am ahead. My old "baby" is hard to value because it is a 2011 with under 40k miles. It makes sense I think to clean it up a bit before selling it.

A battery warranty is worthless because my time is too valuable to screw around with the forms for a warranty service.

Same reason I get high deductible insurance. I'm not going to deal with Nationwide over a $400 repair if I can get a lower rate and self insure.

Flu: I test drove a couple BMWs in 2014 (X3 and 335) and wasn't too impressed. This round I didn't include them in the test drive mix, I did Hyundai/Kia, then Subaru, and Mazda which is what I settled on. In 2020 I test drove a VW GTI and liked the driving a lot, but the interior was cheap for the price and too small.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 2:21pm.

gzz wrote:
I am selling the car, I got a new one in September. But I like the old one so have been slow to do it. I also like to haul wood, cement bags, manure compost etc in the old one.

It takes 2 mins to change my battery, so if it lasts 65% as long as $130 battery, I am ahead. My old "baby" is hard to value because it is a 2011 with under 40k miles. It makes sense I think to clean it up a bit before selling it.

A battery warranty is worthless because my time is too valuable to screw around with the forms for a warranty service.

Same reason I get high deductible insurance. I'm not going to deal with Nationwide over a $400 repair if I can get a lower rate and self insure.

Flu: I test drove a couple BMWs in 2014 (X3 and 335) and wasn't too impressed. This round I didn't include them in the test drive mix, I did Hyundai/Kia, then Subaru, and Mazda which is what I settled on. In 2020 I test drove a VW GTI and liked the driving a lot, but the interior was cheap for the price and too small.

The battery warranty is not simply hopes and dreams. It is a projection of how long it should last. Buying a battery with a short warranty is buying a shorter life for your lawn tractor battery and an earlier replacement hence taking more of your valuable time away sooner

Submitted by The-Shoveler on November 16, 2021 - 3:04pm.

I was reading an article that said the high inflation will cause many retired workers to have to re-enter the work force.

Seems likely to happen IMO.

Submitted by Coronita on November 16, 2021 - 3:52pm.

gzz wrote:
I am selling the car, I got a new one in September. But I like the old one so have been slow to do it. I also like to haul wood, cement bags, manure compost etc in the old one.

It takes 2 mins to change my battery, so if it lasts 65% as long as $130 battery, I am ahead. My old "baby" is hard to value because it is a 2011 with under 40k miles. It makes sense I think to clean it up a bit before selling it.

A battery warranty is worthless because my time is too valuable to screw around with the forms for a warranty service.

Same reason I get high deductible insurance. I'm not going to deal with Nationwide over a $400 repair if I can get a lower rate and self insure.

Flu: I test drove a couple BMWs in 2014 (X3 and 335) and wasn't too impressed. This round I didn't include them in the test drive mix, I did Hyundai/Kia, then Subaru, and Mazda which is what I settled on. In 2020 I test drove a VW GTI and liked the driving a lot, but the interior was cheap for the price and too small.

There is no screwing around with costco. Battery fails within 3 years (previously 4), you get a new battery full replacement. Other places do some prorated return, but costco is the full 3 years. If it dies at 2 years 11 month, you get a new battery and the 3 years resets.

Also, you need to pay attention to the type of battery. For cars that have the battery in a sealed compartment instead of an open engine bay (like all BMWs, which is in the trunk), you have to go AGM. It's not worth going with non-AGM for various reasons...unless you do what I do with my track car and use Lithium Iron Phosphate, which is relatively stable. But it's expensive. $250 for roughly 400cca. But the weigh savings is huge. 2.5 lbs, versus 40-60lbs for a standard battery. It's not practical for a street car, but for a track car, that weight savings is huge.And I wouldn't use a LifeP0 battery on a street car because of all the electronics drawing on it. If the battery is completely drain, it is dead and cannot be recharged...Forget and leave the light on overnight, you're screwed.

As far as cars.
Rule #1: you should never buy a used german car that isn't CPO.
Rule #2: you should never buy a used german car isn't CPO.
Rule #3: if you are thinking about buying a used german car, you should never buy a used german car isn't CPO.

Why? Simple, they are complex machines, and most people that had them previously lease them, go cheap on maintenance, and is a disaster for the used car owner, especially when most of BMW's are all turbo charged...

Buying a used 2014 BMW is just asking for trouble. If you want to get a BMW either buy it new and work on them your self. Or lease them and turn them back in after 3 years....

I bought my X5 around 2011, and the only reason was back then, gas prices were high, and the car market was weird. Because my AWD X5 ended up costing about the same price as a FWD Ford edge, which comes in useful for those occasional trips to the local skiing. Also, I specifically bought the car with most bells and whistles stripped out.. Just so fewer things can break. It worked. Meanwhile my sister's 2014/15 335 already had all fuel injectors replaced... $6000 total.

Did I mention don't buy a used BMW unless it's CPO???

I'm sorry, there's definitely a noticeabledifference in handling between a Mazda and a German car. It's not even close between a 335 and a Mazda 3 or a Mazda 6. Approximately 120hp of difference. Dont get me wrong Mazda are great cars and I have 2, but you're kidding yourself if your comparing performance...Mazdas aren't know for their speed, unless you put a turbo or supercharger in it, and then it's just ok....Their handling is ok but not quite as tuned as bmw,unless you go aftermarket (did that too)...they probably are more reliable than bmw, though my newer Mazda I've already blown 2 transmissions and am on the third one, it literally grenaded....versus bmw has 2x more miles and much older ..

If I were to get a new car? I'd just bite the bullet and get a tesla.

About self insuring auto-insurance. If I understand you correctly, are you saying you don't carry liability and just provide proof that you are self-insured? If so, that seems to be a pretty big gamble in sue-happy SoCal for just saving a few bucks per month. I mean, it's different if you have no assets to lose, sure. But you're saving a few dollars per week and exposing yourself to considerable risk.
I don't skimp on insurance. I buy the maximum liability I can get $250k/500k and on top of that I get a $5 million umbrella because imho there certain things not meant to go cheap on, even though fundamentally I'm cheap. Safety features such as brakes battery tires I won't skimp on, nor will I skimp on insurance. Plus insuring 2 of my cars through Costco isn't that much for the maximum coverage: $600/6 month. And insuring the older cars through Hagerty classic car insurance is like $300 year.

Less than the sets of tires I burn through in 6 months.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 5:13pm.

I bought a used BMW 335. It was a CPO. AS soon as it got close to the end of the warranty I got rid of it thanks to you and spared myself untold pain and suffering. Then I leased a BMW 328 for 3 years until I was confident the kinks were out of the Tesla Model 3. Then I listened to you again and bought one. 18 months in I got an a bad front end collision, the car saved me and definitely the idiot that pulled out in front me. Insurance paid full cost of replacement (i.e. what I paid for it new as it had not depreciated at all even with 21k miles). Then I bought another and here I sit. Coronita is the auto advice guru

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 16, 2021 - 8:25pm.

Another data point. I pick up from a handful of fast/quick serve places that use apps so I can go back and see order history. The kids always get the same thing

Chik Fil A spicy chicken sandwich meal is 7.5% more than this time last year

Habit Charburger with cheese meal is up 11% since this time last year

Submitted by Escoguy on November 16, 2021 - 8:29pm.

I hope so, one tenant retired and I'm afraid she will run out of money in less than a decade.

She is only 53, now working part time.

Submitted by Coronita on November 17, 2021 - 8:53am.

Score!!!

Speaking of unreliable BMWs.. Just discussing them made me look at the TSB catalog for BMWs

https://bimmerscan.com/wp-content/upload...

BMW issued a TSB and the FRM modules bricking is a known issue and they've extended the warranty to 10 years/156,000 miles.

I'm submitting a warranty reimbursement for a new FRM module that I'll buy from FCP Euro for $500, because "repairing" a FRM module via eBay repairer is not a valid remediation process. Never hurt to have a spare FRM module in case it bricks again and need to send one back....

While searching, I also found there's a bunch of TSBs about leaking fuel injectors on the 3 series that also have their warranties extended. Gonna tell my sis that, maybe she gets $6500 back from BMW too.

http://www.bmw-rp.com/production/bmw/rei...

Reminds me of the time sdr that your old 335 started to have a turbo issue and coincidentally they were also in the middle of the Takata airbag recall and advised people to stop driving their cars and there was a stop-sales order on all CPO and used cars with the Takata airbag...and you were able to ditch the 335 with the failing turbo with a large incentive from BMW due to the Takata airbag stop-sales order...lol...