In for a Surprise

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 12, 2007 - 11:56am

North County realtor and regular Nerd's Eye View quotee Chuck Smiar is back with some words of wisdom in a recent North County Times article:

"There's buyers out there, but they're just not buying. They're sitting on the fence, waiting for (prices) to drop more. They're going to see it drop and then they'll wait for it to drop some more," said Chuck Smiar, a Prudential Realtor in Escondido. "They all think it's going to go to zero, and they're going to be in for a surprise."

Well, I'm not quite sure what to make of this one...

read more at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on December 12, 2007 - 12:26pm.

Nice graphic. Threat-o-Meter is a cool name, but here are some other suggestions for titles and sub-titles ...

The Up-Chuck-o-Meter
"Quotes that make you puke"

Smiar-Smiar-Pants-on-Fire-o-Meter
"True gauge of not-quite true statements"

Submitted by JC on December 12, 2007 - 12:44pm.

Love the graphic! Helped restore my sense of humor. I've been out trying to buy in this market. (Yes, I am a knucklehead, but the family pressure just got to be too much).

I've been routinely rejected by sellers. Granted, I have been putting in serious low ball offers (2003 prices).

Pretty sure I am not expecting to pick up something for free....

Submitted by davelj on December 12, 2007 - 1:05pm.

I'm reminded of Winston Churchill's observation that, "It's better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to open one's mouth and remove all doubt."

Submitted by JPJones on December 12, 2007 - 1:53pm.

Is it possible that Chucky is reading the charts upside-down?

Submitted by NotCranky on December 12, 2007 - 2:14pm.

At least he hasn't learned to talk out of both sides of his neck. Slow learner, I guess.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on December 12, 2007 - 4:06pm.

Wow, the really interesting thing is to go to the NC Times site and look at the comments to the article itself. Overwhelmingly, they make fun of Mr. Smiar and his comments. Amazing how the attitude has changed in the last two years.

I wonder what the editors of the NC Times think when they run an article like this and then get totally blasted in the comments section. Admittedly, nobody takes web comments too seriously, but given the overwhelming negative attitude to the story, ya gotta wonder if the editors don't start to think, "hmmm... maybe we should get someone to write for us that people don't just laugh at and make fun of."

Submitted by cr on December 12, 2007 - 4:14pm.

"They all think it's going to go to zero, and they're going to be in for a surprise."

Dangit! I was hoping that I would be able to delcare ownership and claim a house for myself at the end of this.

Guess I better go buy right now!

Submitted by VoZangre on December 12, 2007 - 4:55pm.

Be-yooooo-tiful

analysis, Senor Toscano....

I tend to lend more credence to

http://rs.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/23...

than to Smiar

ciao for now...

Voz

Submitted by brandyn on December 12, 2007 - 7:26pm.

Have you ever been able to discern the real cause behind comments like his? Is it just honest naivety? Or is it that optimism sells papers better than realism? Or perhaps just that agreeing with existing popular opinion sells better? Or does it ultimately tie back to some attempt to manipulate the market (they know better, but hey, they'll get more commissions for them and their buddies if they can convince more people to buy)? Or...?

"Never attribute to malice that which can be adequately explained by stupidity."

I'm never sure how ubiquitously I should apply that.

Submitted by 34f3f3f on December 13, 2007 - 8:48am.

It's all of those brandyn. When I first saw the graph, I thought it was just a joke, not realizing that there were serious comments behind. This is an industry verging on self-parody. I have an image of Borat setting up shop, with a Chuck Smiar's "Ten Easy Steps to be Become a Successful Realtor" taking pride of place on his desk.

Submitted by lawman on December 13, 2007 - 9:56pm.

Hi JC,
I am looking also. I use Realty Trac and Zip Realty together. I compare new listing, provided by zip realty, to notice of foreclosures, provided by Realty Trac, not 100% accurate but close enough. Not surprisingly most new listing are in th foreclosure process. I personally would not buy now, look at Realty Trac show your family, those will be your comps. Mark my words, at the bottom the correction will be over 50% from the peak.
Good Luck to us all

Submitted by Fearful on December 14, 2007 - 5:50pm.

I love some of the NCTimes's reader comments. Especially the one that quotes the article and then says nothing but

HAHAHAHAHAHA!

Submitted by jimmyle on December 14, 2007 - 10:56pm.

It is not a roller coaster any more but closer to a free fall. Very nice graph, interesting to see if the slope ease up any bit the next few months.

Submitted by NotCranky on December 15, 2007 - 11:22am.

"interesting to see if the slope ease up any bit the next few months."

Interesting to see if it doesn't too.

Submitted by JC on December 15, 2007 - 12:12pm.

Lawman, thanks for the insight. May I ask where you are looking and if you've attempted the low ball strategy at all?

Submitted by SD Realtor on December 16, 2007 - 9:59am.

Rich I spoke to the reporter who wrote the story and we had a good laugh together. I think his next story is going to focus on short sales and the foreclosure process as he queried me a long time on those two issues.

Also for JC and Lawman I have a few clients who have been rolling lowballs in. One of them has been submitting them down in the South Bay area with no takers yet. He keeps getting outbid on the high side by other people. Another person has been doing the same in the Normal Heights area with no luck yet. Two others in La Costa Valley...no luck yet.

It just takes patience.

SD Realtor

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