How will Qualcomm layoff impact SD housing market?

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Submitted by NicMM on September 16, 2015 - 1:48pm

It's rumored that of 5000 layoffs, 70% will be in San Diego.

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Submitted by FlyerInHi on September 16, 2015 - 2:00pm.

That's a big hit to San Diego.
People may have to sell and move out, but maybe they will be laying off the less senior people who are currently renters?

We shall see.

Couldn't you do a screen grab instead of taking a picture of the screen? haha..

Submitted by Coronita on September 16, 2015 - 2:24pm.

That website is filled with nutcases. I question even if most of the posts are from real employees or ex-employees. Just read some of the posts. Some of the posts are so far out there, it's funny. I would take everything with a grain of salt.

What is clear is that there appears to be a lot of people with an ax to grind with Qualcomm and their employees. I don't know why.

From some of colleagues there, there hasn't been a reduction in some departments yet, so it is highly unlikely someone knows the bodycoint distribution, unless that person works in HR and is leaking information.

Submitted by NicMM on September 16, 2015 - 4:00pm.

I didnt visit that website. Don't even know which site it is. But saw that picture from a mobile chatting group. So forwarded it here.

Submitted by an on September 16, 2015 - 10:15pm.
Submitted by NicMM on September 17, 2015 - 9:59am.

Funny to see some company posted hiring information in that thread :)

Submitted by XBoxBoy on September 17, 2015 - 11:32am.

More news attention to this:

http://www.10news.com/news/major-qualcom...

Not sure how reliable their info is, but they are saying:

"There was no word on exactly how many employees would be laid off in San Diego, although the number was expected to be in the thousands."

If it is true thousands laid off in San Diego, then I would think that's enough to impact housing market.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on September 17, 2015 - 4:52pm.

Looks like it's gonna be 1,314 people laid off in San Diego.

http://timesofsandiego.com/business/2015...

Submitted by Coronita on September 17, 2015 - 5:18pm.

You can probably add some more to that in January once avago completes the acquisition of Broadcom. Great for shareholders. Bad for employees.

Submitted by fun4vnay2 on September 17, 2015 - 6:16pm.

More rounds of lay offs coming for qcom in SD. The cost cutting has just begun

Submitted by Escoguy on September 17, 2015 - 8:56pm.

Even if 20-30% of these employees actually left San Diego, one can assume the ownership ratio is somewhat higher than the general population but at most a few hundred homes would come on the market and these wouldn't be distressed sales. So best case for buyers, there may be a little more inventory.

As inventory is so low, one can only think this would be a small step to normalization but far from the basis for any larger correction.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on September 17, 2015 - 9:17pm.

Escoguy wrote:
Even if 20-30% of these employees actually left San Diego, one can assume the ownership ratio is somewhat higher than the general population but at most a few hundred homes would come on the market and these wouldn't be distressed sales. So best case for buyers, there may be a little more inventory.

As inventory is so low, one can only think this would be a small step to normalization but far from the basis for any larger correction.

I think it's important to also keep in mind the psychological impact on the employees who do remain. All of them will now be much less secure in their jobs, and so less likely to buy a house. While I won't make any claims that this will cause a housing collapse, I don't think you should dismiss this as being negligible.

Submitted by Escoguy on September 17, 2015 - 10:13pm.

Qualcomm has been around so long that the vast majority of employees could have bought years ago (especially in the 2008-2012 low price period). A former manager of mine was Managing Director for Qualcomm Europe. He made so much money on stock options, that he could easily retire, it was several million dollars for one person.

For more recent employees, you may have a point but even then, the effect will be minimal.

More Chinese buyers will buy more homes in one year than Qualcomm employees will sell. I was driving by an investment property in 4S ranch and see a group of them doing Tai Chi in the morning. The group keeps getting larger month by month.

With low interest rates, low supply, constant immigration, low energy prices, and lack of new construction, prices will be flat in the worst case, probably continue up at the 2-5%/year range for the mid term. If several years from now, the shale boom is over and we get some energy price inflation, then perhaps rates rise which will put a damper on things. In the mean time, Telsa, GM, Nissan are brining out more EVs which should cap energy cost inflation.

Wage inflation will stay capped by global competition.

So even if we have rent inflation in California, the rest of the country won't be so bad because they will build more elsewhere like in Texas.

So big picture, some layoffs at one company won't do much.

Submitted by svelte on September 18, 2015 - 5:26pm.

KUSI claims 1,314 in San Diego are scheduled to get the axe in the next 60 days.

http://www.kusi.com/story/30060449/qualc...

That's around a third of the 15% workforce cut Qualcomm is targeting.

(oops just saw other post quoting this number too...sorry for the dupe)

Submitted by henrysd on September 18, 2015 - 9:07pm.

Some of those group Tai Chi players in 4S Ranch are actually parents of Qualcomm engineers.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 19, 2015 - 10:43am.

Xbox, I find myself in agreement with you on most things, but I see this one a bit differently.

So far in 2015, San Diego has added 4,800 jobs per month on average. So even if 4k people get laid off from qcom, that's less than 1 month's job growth. And that assumes that none of these people will find other jobs in San Diego, which is of course not the case. Given the general state of the tech industry as I see it (which is: techies are in high demand), I would be surprised if even half of the people had to move out of town. Let's say 40% have to leave -- now we are down to about 1 week's worth of San Diego job growth to replace those folks.

So I just don't see this as being a big issue for San Diego housing as a whole. It's a big city.

That said, I could see there being an impact in the surrounding areas that are popular among QCOMers. If enough people need to move, there could be a bit of a mini-glut in that area for a while. But I would view that more as an opportunity for people who are looking to buy in those areas -- not as a game changer for the overall housing market.

Do you think I'm missing something?

Submitted by mixxalot on September 19, 2015 - 11:41am.

Chinese are invading California and driving up real estate prices. Saw it in bay area, and Orange County now they are destroying San Diego with suitcases of cash. It is the corruption sewage from Red China.

Submitted by Coronita on September 19, 2015 - 12:48pm.

mixxalot wrote:
Chinese are invading California and driving up real estate prices. Saw it in bay area, and Orange County now they are destroying San Diego with suitcases of cash. It is the corruption sewage from Red China.

Got envyfluenza?

Submitted by mixxalot on September 19, 2015 - 12:50pm.

Nope I don't just stating root cause of price bubble that is all. The Japs did the same thing in the 1980s and look how well that turned out.

Submitted by Coronita on September 19, 2015 - 1:30pm.

mixxalot wrote:
Nope I don't just stating root cause of price bubble that is all. The Japs did the same thing in the 1980s and look how well that turned out.

So do you have the actual closing stats for all of san diego county to see what percentage of purchases are chinese from mainland china? I specially ask because, well for instance there are some chinese that are US citizens and/or naturalized citizen, that well are just like every domestic buyer, with the exception that they possibly manage their money better than the average person....And then, while visiting places like Encinitas, Carlsbad, Cardiff, RSF... I don't see too many chinese buyers for those homes there. I think the bulk of those buyers are still, for the lack of the better word of describing people in general, white...

So, I'm curious what lead you to conclude that the reason why real estate prices are unaffordable is the fault of roughly 18-20% of all real estate purchases in CA that are that are buyers from mainland china? Could it be also possible that other people were luckier, didn't go through a major layoff or financial crisis during these years, did ok with investments, had access to cheap borrowed money and were qualified to get those loans?

Submitted by Coronita on September 19, 2015 - 1:36pm.

flu wrote:
mixxalot wrote:
Chinese are invading California and driving up real estate prices. Saw it in bay area, and Orange County now they are destroying San Diego with suitcases of cash. It is the corruption sewage from Red China.

Got envyfluenza?

Must be all those anchor babies that Bush and Trump keep talking about :(

Submitted by flyer on September 19, 2015 - 3:49pm.

Many articles indicate that fewer and fewer of the native-born population are able to buy homes, so the influx of foreign funds in certain housing markets like CA may end up being a sustaining force for housing prices in those areas longer term.

That's a good thing for those who already have property--but not great for those who don't--especially not for young people who would like to buy in the areas in which they were raised. We bought property for our kids years ago, but it's a different world today.

Submitted by utcsox on September 19, 2015 - 6:04pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Xbox, I find myself in agreement with you on most things, but I see this one a bit differently.

So far in 2015, San Diego has added 4,800 jobs per month on average. So even if 4k people get laid off from qcom, that's less than 1 month's job growth. And that assumes that none of these people will find other jobs in San Diego, which is of course not the case. Given the general state of the tech industry as I see it (which is: techies are in high demand), I would be surprised if even half of the people had to move out of town. Let's say 40% have to leave -- now we are down to about 1 week's worth of San Diego job growth to replace those folks.

So I just don't see this as being a big issue for San Diego housing as a whole. It's a big city.

That said, I could see there being an impact in the surrounding areas that are popular among QCOMers. If enough people need to move, there could be a bit of a mini-glut in that area for a while. But I would view that more as an opportunity for people who are looking to buy in those areas -- not as a game changer for the overall housing market.

Do you think I'm missing something?

I think the analysis needs to factor in the desirability of areas that are popular among QCOMers. If the housing in these areas have characteristics that are extremely undesirable (i.e too much walls, lizards....) to most buyers, the mini-glut will put severe downward pressure to the housing prices.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 19, 2015 - 6:54pm.

Lizards???

Submitted by bearishgurl on September 19, 2015 - 7:46pm.

flyer wrote:
Many articles indicate that fewer and fewer of the native-born population are able to buy homes, so the influx of foreign funds in certain housing markets like CA may end up being a sustaining force for housing prices in those areas longer term.

That's a good thing for those who already have property--but not great for those who don't--especially not for young people who would like to buy in the areas in which they were raised. We bought property for our kids years ago, but it's a different world today.

flyer, that's all well and good .... um, except that you have posted here several times that your kids are currently living and working in the LA area and SF bay area, respectively (as my kids are). How are your kids (theoretically) going to one day occupy a home (in SD County?) that you have "earmarked" for them if they are making a much better living elsewhere in the state??

Are your property "investments" actually spread thoughout the state, and if so, are your kids currently occupying them?

For the record, my kids (all SD natives) have (vociferously) stated that they will NOT return to SD for a job when they can make much more money elsewhere in the state. And frankly, I don't blame them. If I was a freshly minted 22-year-old college graduate, I would NOT be here in SD, plain and simple.

H@ll, no ...

Submitted by flyer on September 19, 2015 - 10:09pm.

True, BG. To answer your questions. Yes, we do have properties throughout the state and elsewhere. The kids have kept the properties we gave them, and they are now rentals, because each of them wanted to purchase homes in other locations. As your kids, their career interests have taken them elsewhere--but they do visit often:)

Submitted by an on September 19, 2015 - 10:26pm.

Rich Toscano wrote:
Lizards???

Yep, the infestation kind. Even worse are the ones that love the unbearable heat.

Submitted by paramount on September 20, 2015 - 12:05am.

I'm glad I never stopped calling Jack Murphy Jack Murphy.

Submitted by Coronita on September 20, 2015 - 2:37am.

AN wrote:
Rich Toscano wrote:
Lizards???

Yep, the infestation kind. Even worse are the ones that love the unbearable heat.

In exploring Carlsbad, Encinitas, Cardiff, Solana Beach, I discovered the lizards are absolutely beautiful in these areas. Much more beautiful than the lizards that I could find in my backyard and your backyard. But the price of walls up there are also considerably much more expensive.
You know, to keep the wind and sand out.

This is a freaking trip..
http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-150007635
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150010383-11...
http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-150048330
http://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-150035244-21...
http://www.sdlookup.com/Pictures-150037207

I'm in the wrong profession...

Submitted by utcsox on September 20, 2015 - 7:26am.

I wonder why the "corruption sewage from Red China" are not destroying Carlsbad, Encinitas, Cardiff and Solana Beach with "suit of cash". Can it be these beautiful lizards and the prices of walls are deterrents to them? Other cities in California shall take notes and learn from it to reduce the price bubble!!

Submitted by Coronita on September 20, 2015 - 7:30am.

utcsox wrote:
I wonder why the "corruption sewage from Red China" are not destroying Carlsbad, Encinitas, Cardiff and Solana Beach with "suit of cash". Can it be these beautiful lizards and the prices of walls are deterrents to them? Other cities in California shall take notes and learn from it to reduce the price bubble!!

lol....

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