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sobmaz
14 years ago

It is amazing how influential
It is amazing how influential free money can be to the economy.

It is like the FED and the Government has dumped and dumped gallons of gasoline on the smoldering fire and it is quickly igniting.

Don’t they call that the “finale”. Isn’t that usually the end of something?

Oxford
14 years ago
Reply to  sobmaz

buy baby buy.
ox
…bubbles

buy baby buy.

ox
…bubbles are fun

SD Realtor
14 years ago
Reply to  Oxford

Actually the increase is
Actually the increase is pretty tame compared to the rise in the equities market.

Everything is fine! Like Ox said buy baby buy!!

livinincali
14 years ago

Based on the chart march
Based on the chart march seems to be a strong month. In 2006 march produced a strong bounce. In march 2007 march produced a noticable bounce and in March 2008 the market stayed flat in a severe decline. Based on 2006 and 2007 it seems prices might rally into June-July this year, which would make sense with the expiring tax credit. I’ll be curious to see if the sales remain robust in May and June with the rising mortgage rates (they’re up about 25 basis points since the fed stopped the MBS purchase program) and tax credit expiration.

weberlin
14 years ago
Reply to  livinincali

livinincali wrote:…which
[quote=livinincali]…which would make sense with the expiring tax credit. I’ll be curious to see if the sales remain robust in May and June with the rising mortgage rates (they’re up about 25 basis points since the fed stopped the MBS purchase program) and tax credit expiration.[/quote]

Yeah, let’s see what happens in the coming months. The second half of 2010 seems to be the consensus target for the ‘new financial meltdown’.

Will the government try to counter rising mortgage rates? Cash for caulkers anyone?

poorgradstudent
14 years ago

I do imagine this is a short
I do imagine this is a short term surge thanks to the pending expiration of the $8k credit and the perception that interest rates are going to start going up. I’d be interested to see the low-medium-high breakdown; I’m guessing a lot of the gains are coming from the low end of the market. Also, Spring does tend to see a bounce in activity.

I guess the other thing for the permabears around here to keep in mind is the economy IS improving, and governments do typically throw money at problems to soften blows. The government can easily use monetary policy to support current prices long enough for inflation and improved employment to stabilize things.

All that said, I fully expect a dip back down as the $8k credit expires.

Fletch
14 years ago

Rich has probably addressed
Rich has probably addressed how his data differs from other sites, but I’m wondering if anyone might know why this March bump isn’t reflected in the Redfin data? I looked (on Redfin) at all of San Diego (and my zip codes of interest) and nowhere did I see a significant bump for March.

(former)FormerSanDiegan
Reply to  Rich Toscano

From redfin’s site:
“Unless

From redfin’s site:

“Unless otherwise specified, we calculate these values using moving windows that present the metrics based on the 90-day period ending on the given date shown on the graph.”

http://www.redfin.com/help/real-estate-trends-methodology

If you compute a 3-month average from Rich’s plot, it will look a lot like the redfin plot.

Fletch
14 years ago
Reply to  Rich Toscano

Great, thanks much for
Great, thanks much for clarifying that Rich.

(former)FormerSanDiegan

I also wanted to point out an
I also wanted to point out an observation upon closer inspection of Rich’s graph …

You can now clearly see that we indeed hit bottom on April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm as I indicated last Spring.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom

[img_assist|nid=13126|title=bottom|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300]

livinincali
14 years ago

uh oh. Now you just jinxed
uh oh. Now you just jinxed it. It is interested that as soon as the fed turned on the liquidity spigot in March of 2009 that the market stabilized. I wonder if they’ll have to do it again and if so would it be as successful the next time around. The problem is these liquidity floods always end up creating bubbles and crashes. The 1999-2000 stock market bubble was caused by the fed liquidity spigot to prevent a Y2K panic. Now it looks like we have another stock market bubble forming. Oh well, people like bubbles until they blow up.

creative_cpa
14 years ago
Reply to  livinincali

If you want a real world
If you want a real world example of the after effects of a liquidity flood, look at the sales of new cars the day after the “cash-for-clunkers” promotion ended.

[img_assist|nid=13127|title=Cash for Clunkers|desc=|link=node|align=center|width=500|height=350]

sdcellar
14 years ago

FSD– That’s awesome!
FSD– That’s awesome!

CA renter
14 years ago

FormerSanDiegan wrote:I also
[quote=FormerSanDiegan]I also wanted to point out an observation upon closer inspection of Rich’s graph …

You can now clearly see that we indeed hit bottom on April 17, 2009 at 9:37 pm as I indicated last Spring.
http://piggington.com/welcome_to_the_bottom

[img_assist|nid=13126|title=bottom|desc=|link=node|align=left|width=400|height=300][/quote]

Good call, FSD! 🙂

Huckleberry
14 years ago

Hmmm, strange… This may be
Hmmm, strange… This may be representative of all SD county, but definitely not the coastal neighborhoods that I watch.

I see places come on the market (still overpriced) and sit and sit, while the prices on them are continually lowered.

I figure as long as I see properties exhibiting these characteristics, I would be retarded to buy right now…

desmond
14 years ago

Vengeance? San Diego is #1,
Vengeance? San Diego is #1, #1 in short sales:

http://www.facorelogic.com/uploadedFiles/Newsroom/Distressed_Sales_Report_April_8.pdf

Not a healthy market, it’s just a big going “out of business” sale.

temeculaguy
14 years ago

FSD-Epic post!!! Bonus points
FSD-Epic post!!! Bonus points for the Mr. mortgagesque arrow on your chart. Since you are on a roll with predictions and the NBA playoffs are right around the corner, any predictions? It could be lucrative, if gambling on sports were legal that is.

(former)FormerSanDiegan
Reply to  temeculaguy

TG – In my NCAA bracket I
TG – In my NCAA bracket I had Butler losing in the first round, so I have little confidence in my sports preditcions … That said, since I am not really a Lakers fan, I would have to go with the LeBrons breaking through and taking it this year. It is time for the King to take his throne.

/end threadjack