Goodbye to San Diego

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Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by Escoguy on July 24, 2021 - 1:29pm.

DataAgent wrote:
We have 2 non-Tesla EVs and an over-sized rooftop solar array. Our solar panels power our house and both of our cars. We use net-metering and pay no monthly electric bills. We net-up in November. In November of 2020, out total electric bill for the entire year of 2020 and late 2019 was $50. I'm satisfied with a $50 annual electric bill. However, there are members of my local EV Club who spend lots of time trying to get their annual electric bill as close to $0 as possible. Their Zoom presentations bore me to log-off early.

I am content with the $16 per month EVTOU5 rate which powers the house/pool and two EVs plus one plug in hybrid. Solar covers the usage. The climate credit brings the annual bill down to approx $150.

The discussion about gas prices bore me so I often go to sleep when it is discussed.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 25, 2021 - 9:52am.

Escoguy wrote:
DataAgent wrote:
We have 2 non-Tesla EVs and an over-sized rooftop solar array. Our solar panels power our house and both of our cars. We use net-metering and pay no monthly electric bills. We net-up in November. In November of 2020, out total electric bill for the entire year of 2020 and late 2019 was $50. I'm satisfied with a $50 annual electric bill. However, there are members of my local EV Club who spend lots of time trying to get their annual electric bill as close to $0 as possible. Their Zoom presentations bore me to log-off early.

I am content with the $16 per month EVTOU5 rate which powers the house/pool and two EVs plus one plug in hybrid. Solar covers the usage. The climate credit brings the annual bill down to approx $150.

The discussion about gas prices bore me so I often go to sleep when it is discussed.

Hey I just had a business idea. A gas station with way higher prices...the surplus goes to environmental remediation causes.

Fucking brilliant. It would be high status to gas up there. Middle of l.a. Instagram spot.

Gas station of the stars.

100$ a gallon. 500 a gallon for super unleaded.

Full service though. A PhD in environmental studies cleans the windshield on your ferrari.

Or maybe there are no pumps. Just Jerry cans. Your gas decanted by hand by a petroleum sommelier/engineer.

An anti gas gas station. An on staff hippie protesting fracking. Some asshole kid screaming about bicycles.

Part theatre, part gas station.

Price it so we only need 2 customers a day...

Submitted by an on July 25, 2021 - 10:41am.

Gas station can't stay in business selling gas. They make their money from the stuff they sell inside. It'll probably more beneficial for you to just donate the money you would have spent on the failed business idea to your favorite environmental cause charity.

Submitted by Coronita on July 25, 2021 - 6:58pm.

Unfortunately, we got sort of lost at the Peek-A-Boo Canyons, just as the flash flood storm moved in, and it threw the rest of our trip off by a few hours (fortunately, we didnt up as the dumb missing hikers on the 6pm news) ....so we arrived at St George pretty late in the afternoon and missed the last round of Bingo at the community center...maybe next time...
hello

In all seriousness though, Utah is a beautiful place to hike and camp. Had a good time, especially at Zion... Definitely worth the trip.
Next time though, i should pack a GPS and a satellite phone when going to remote places...
The cell phone coverage understandably is spotty.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 25, 2021 - 9:50pm.

Yes very beautiful in many parts. And I hear there is a panda express there

Submitted by Coronita on July 26, 2021 - 12:15am.

.

Submitted by svelte on July 27, 2021 - 7:23pm.

San Diego housing prices rose second highest in the nation.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/bus...

And if you look at the list of top rising metro areas, looks split pretty well between blue and red. I notice no trend.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2021 - 11:40pm.

Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.

Submitted by svelte on July 28, 2021 - 7:05am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.

Phoenix metro area - which is the only city with higher yoy home prices that San Diego - did indeed vote Biden in 2020 (50.1%), but it voted Trump in 2016. I think the Trump hatred is an anomaly and that Phoenix will return to red voting in 2024 (unless Trump runs).

Dallas/FW metro area - while it is true that Dallas is very blue, Ft Worth is very red. And it is the same with this area - 50.6% Biden in 2020 but voted Trump in 2016.

In my opinion, we'll have to wait for another election cycle to see if they really are turning blue.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 8:33am.

You just made my case for me. While Phoenix could come back to GOP the trend is clearly blue in what was once Goldwater country. Dallas and Texas are behind them on the curve but again the trend is clear. Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant. Prices are being driven by immigration from blue states. Even if we send red folks they are far more liberal than the old time conservatives in those states and politics will shift left as we export weed smoking, socially liberal Republicans.

Submitted by svelte on July 28, 2021 - 9:18am.

sdrealtor wrote:
You just made my case for me. While Phoenix could come back to GOP the trend is clearly blue in what was once Goldwater country. Dallas and Texas are behind them on the curve but again the trend is clear. Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant. Prices are being driven by immigration from blue states. Even if we send red folks they are far more liberal than the old time conservatives in those states and politics will shift left as we export weed smoking, socially liberal Republicans.

Actually I didn't. You're reading things into the move from blue states to red states. EconProf is a prime example, as are other republicans I know who are currently migrating to Arizona/Utah.

"Whether it gets to a blue majority is irrelevant" is an amazing statement in the context of what I wrote...I said there was a mixture of red and blue cities in the list and you disagreed. Now you're saying yeah well the red cities are more liberal now because republicans are more liberal. Apparently you are saying red = blue. Can't disagree more.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 9:44am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Huh? The top markets are either turning blue or already blue.

This is what I said. I stand by it and your post supported it. They are blue or turning blue

Yes guys like EP are moving but so are other more liberal, younger and non-white folks. The shift is happening in Phoenix and in Dallas

Submitted by svelte on July 28, 2021 - 10:17am.

sdrealtor wrote:
The shift is happening in Phoenix and in Dallas

Truth be told, Phoenix party registration by percentage of voters is moving away from both the Democratic and Republican parties:

https://ktar.com/story/4468106/gop-democ...

There are still more Republicans that Democrats registered there though Republicans lost a few voters and Democrats picked up a few. "Other" is picking up the most ground and taking a bigger slice of the Phoenix voting population...the Rep and Dem shares are both dropping.

Texas doesn't require voters to select a political party when registering, so the Dallas/Ft Worth metro area is harder to measure.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 12:57pm.

Those Phoenix numbers are minute. A few thousand voters. Arizona was reliably deep red for decades. Not any more. The non white population is growing and it has become more progressive through retirees and influx of high tech white collar professionals. There is no argument it is a more progressive than it was 20 years ago

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 28, 2021 - 1:12pm.

IMO Even California has flipped several times from blue to red and back again. Would not surprise me too much to see if flip again someday. Not every republican is white as well.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 2:16pm.

Of course over time anything could happen. And non-whites are overwhelming not republican taken as whole

Submitted by barnaby33 on July 28, 2021 - 3:12pm.

I'm always deeply suspect of anyone who conflates growth in Latino populations with a leftward political shift. Most Latinos are very conservative. They may have voted more liberal because of wedge issues, but for the most part their values align better with conservatives/Republicans.
Josh

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 28, 2021 - 3:23pm.

I did not specifically call out Latino but since you asked they lose votes based upon perceived racism and anit-immigration postiions in the party

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hispanic_a...

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 3, 2021 - 6:27pm.

Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 4, 2021 - 7:33am.

Indios 120. Humans live there. But how.

I once left a bottle of wine in my car out there by mistake and it exploded.

My new life plan is to spend every July or aug in Vermont. Maybe I need a Burlington timeshare.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 5, 2021 - 2:18pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.

111.

Money may be the least of our problems soon. The world has a fever.

Maybe invest in water

Submitted by gzz on August 5, 2021 - 3:31pm.

I just did invest in western us water rights. VWTR.

Very speculative small-cap co so i kept it to 300 shares.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 23, 2022 - 11:03am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Looks like they may hit 110 tomorrow in St George.

Had a friend who just took the trip through St Goerge up to ski counry in Utah and it reminded me of our old pal EP. I figured id check in to see what is doing there. Todays weather is in the 30's all day but at least he has his conservative politics away from CA liberals and his skyrocketing home val......ooops. Looks like they have hit a little speed bump. It looks like median price is down about 4% year over year. Well he's got his family and that is why he really went after all. Hope they are all doing well.

https://www.redfin.com/city/16751/UT/St-...

Submitted by EconProf on February 26, 2022 - 9:03am.

Thanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?

Submitted by EconProf on February 26, 2022 - 9:23am.

Now about our RE...hard to accept Redfin's claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 26, 2022 - 11:53am.

EconProf wrote:
Thanks sdr for keeping this old thread alive. I still like to keep up with SD RE trends on Piggington.
Re your comments, yes it can get cold here, and warm in the summers, although our elevation keeps us better off than nearby Vegas.
I looked up official average St. George temperature highs and lows and rainfall for February: average daytime high 59, nighttime low 37. Brutal! 3 days with precipitation.
For March, 68, 43, and 4 days of precipitation.
That must account for our awful utility bills on our 2550 SF house: January water + el bill: $170.24. Gas bill: 97.28.
In hot July, el + water = 213.19. (Combined because the City collects for both). sdr, care to tell us what your July numbers were?

My water bill was about $40 as I have beautiful drought tolerant landscape. People take pictures of it all the time. My gas was $35. I have no electric. My solar is long paid off. My house is bigger than yours

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 26, 2022 - 10:43am.

EconProf wrote:
Now about our RE...hard to accept Redfin's claim our home prices are down 3% YOY, since all other reports say 20% or so. Could be because Redfin does not hold constant the size or quality of homes sold. So more small houses or condos would yield that misleading figure.
I can only speak for my own experience of moving last April into our new house for $556,000. Am now refinancing and the appraisal came in at $730,000. The refi will enable me to add to my stock of rental condos (3 currently).
PS: our house price was set in the previous July, so appreciation was not as large as it appears.

Stats are stats. As you noted your price was set two years ago and it appears the appreciation happened the first year. Also you bought new, how much more did you spend to get it move in ready. I’d guess about $50k but may be more or less

Liquidating all your San Diego real estate 2 to 3 years ago has likely already cost you well over $1 million. But you do get the joy of living in a red state while we suffer in a prosperous blue state. My next-door neighbor made a similar choice and thought he made a killing. He left in June and his house has already gone up around 400 K. Such is life. I hope you are enjoying the time with your family. It has come at a very high price but those years are priceless and you can’t get time back

Submitted by EconProf on February 26, 2022 - 5:16pm.

sdr, you are usually pretty good with math, but a few corrections are in order.
July of 2020 was more like a year and a half ago, not two. So our appreciation rate was about 20% per year, in line with most all the RE reports on St. George houses.
No I did not sell my San Diego RE investments 2-3 years ago...more like twelve years ago, investing in AZ. Yep, it would have done better if left in San Diego, but not by much.
The new house we moved into last April did not require any money to be move-in ready as the developer (Brio) gave us so many choices and optional add-ons, costing about 50K but included in the $556,000 price.
Back to the bigger picture, CA has the highest unemployment rate 7.7% (BLS, December), and Utah second lowest (1.9%), with St. George the lowest in Utah. Utah has the 2d fastest population growth and CA is losing population faster than all states except NY and IL. I'm guessing the politics of each state is a major factor. Incidentally, our property taxes are about one-half of one percent, so moving to a better house with better government cut our taxes paid by about 80%. Income taxes, likewise.
Congrats on your low utility bills, but let's not ignore the $20,000 to $40,000 you probably spent to put in solar.
As you and I have previously pointed out, SD is benefitting from people moving from the two other worse-governed coastal California metropolitan areas who still want to stay near the ocean. With employers fleeing CA to other western states, I'm not sure how long that will prop up San Diego prices.

Submitted by sdrealtor on February 26, 2022 - 6:35pm.

That’s great that the market is so strong there the builder throws in upgrades worth $50k and you didn’t have to pay to landscape your own property. Here I’m down and out California if you’re unlucky enough to be one of the few on the waiting list to get a house all they throw in is thanks for coming. And nice of you to omit the 4.2% unemployment rate here which is rapidly dropping. I did not omit the cost of my solar I said it was long since paid off which means that it has already paid for itself and is returning the equivalent of close to $4000 in savings every year.

EP your math skills are usually good also. But I’m going to have to correct something because you did not compound that return. If it was 20% over two years compounded twice it would now be worth over 800 which as you said it is not. It’s actually more like 15%.

While our markets are appreciating 30% so it’s not even close to what we are getting. If you had what we had you would be close to 950k. And our taxes are a very small price to pay for that appreciation. Over the last two years My average weekly appreciation has been more than my annual tax bill. My taxes are about 1/3rd of 1% of my current value due to prop 13.

Unlike Utah we are constantly birthing new unicorn tech companies and now even have them in small towns like Encinitas. The blue line on the trolley opened and ridership is soaring. They just opened 9 more miles of car pool lanes on the 5 freeway last week with more coming. Things are absolutely blossoming here and there looks to be no retreat in sight.

Submitted by Coronita on February 28, 2022 - 9:45am.

sdrealtor wrote:
That’s great that the market is so strong there the builder throws in upgrades worth $50k and you didn’t have to pay to landscape your own property. Here I’m down and out California if you’re unlucky enough to be one of the few on the waiting list to get a house all they throw in is thanks for coming. And nice of you to omit the 4.2% unemployment rate here which is rapidly dropping. I did not omit the cost of my solar I said it was long since paid off which means that it has already paid for itself and is returning the equivalent of close to $4000 in savings every year.

EP your math skills are usually good also. But I’m going to have to correct something because you did not compound that return. If it was 20% over two years compounded twice it would now be worth over 800 which as you said it is not. It’s actually more like 15%.

While our markets are appreciating 30% so it’s not even close to what we are getting. If you had what we had you would be close to 950k. And our taxes are a very small price to pay for that appreciation. Over the last two years My average weekly appreciation has been more than my annual tax bill. My taxes are about 1/3rd of 1% of my current value due to prop 13.

Unlike Utah we are constantly birthing new unicorn tech companies and now even have them in small towns like Encinitas. The blue line on the trolley opened and ridership is soaring. They just opened 9 more miles of car pool lanes on the 5 freeway last week with more coming. Things are absolutely blossoming here and there looks to be no retreat in sight.

That new I-5 northbound opening is awesome. Same with the UCSD trolley.

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