Goodbye to San Diego

User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on April 22, 2021 - 3:18pm.

If you have a paid off primary (bought maybe 20-30 years ago), your tax rate should be fairly low.
So staying put probably is a better option all considered.

(like sdr I am staying put until they wheel me out)

If you bought in a really expensive area with a really high MR, but then you are probably not worried about it either as you probably can afford it.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 21, 2021 - 4:16pm.

svelte wrote:
EconProf wrote:

Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.

"Californians may have been undercounted in the 2020 Census.

The Census Bureau’s decennial population count will have far-reaching consequences for California’s political representation and federal funding. Three in four Californians belong to one or more hard-to-count groups: children, young men, Latino and African American residents, and renters. Noncitizens may also have been particularly reluctant to participate, given the Trump administration’s actions to curtail immigration and its attempt to add a citizenship question to the census form. The pandemic further upended outreach efforts and affected in-person follow-ups by census workers. Parts of the final count will become available starting in April 2021, but it will take longer to fully discern how disruptions may have affected the count’s accuracy."

https://www.ppic.org/publication/californias-population/

Anecdotally, temeculas so crowded it can be quicker to drive to poway than one town over to murrieta. Please have a few less people .. .please...

Submitted by an on April 22, 2021 - 3:11pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
The irony is I've always felt retirement in place is one of the best parts of living here. All my friends back East always looked forward to retiring in a beautiful place with a warm climate. I've been enjoying that all along and don't need to move to get that. Of course they say they go to Florida because of low cost of living and taxes. But truth is they buy more expensive homes there and join expensive country clubs. If the weather sucked they wouldn't be moving there either. Kinda defeats the argument of low cost of living and taxes as a reason to a large degree. I'm staying put!

I feel the same way about retirement. Every time I go on vacation, regardless of where, when I get back to SD and experience this weather, there's no other place I'd rather live. People come here to vacation, so if I can live my life and experience the "vacation" every day, why would I leave if I can afford it here. I'm staying put as well.

Submitted by svelte on April 23, 2021 - 7:06am.

an wrote:

I feel the same way about retirement. Every time I go on vacation, regardless of where, when I get back to SD and experience this weather, there's no other place I'd rather live. People come here to vacation, so if I can live my life and experience the "vacation" every day, why would I leave if I can afford it here. I'm staying put as well.

I've lived in many other areas of the country. I know where I'm happiest, and that is in this state. As soon as we decided we would retire in San Diego, we put ourselves on a glide path to make that happen. When I retire, house will be paid off and we've got enough stashed away to live very comfortably.

If we moved out of state to save a few income tax dollars, all we would be doing is adding to the $ we'll give our kids when we kick the bucket. We're already likely to give them a significant amount, so why would we move to an area we like less just to give them more? Wouldn't make sense.

Early on, we often thought we'd retire on the norcal coast, but the years have changed our minds. We would sacrifice entertainment options, weather, and access to major medical facilities if we did that. San Diego is the better choice.

Submitted by Myriad on April 24, 2021 - 7:51pm.

People complain that CA is an expensive state to retire, but I wonder how many have actually done the math.
Yes, if you're young and looking to buy, it's expensive. And if you're moving to CA for retirement, it's also expensive (relative to other states/cities).

But... if you're been here for 30 years and owned your home for that long, and saved decently, it's really not that bad.
So you have the following compared to other states:
- lower property tax
- no tax on SSA income
- slightly higher income tax rate (for $60-100k taxable income) compared to states with taxes. Moderately higher for states w/o income tax: you'll pay more in property tax/sales tax/or other expenditures for things that are not covered by taxes.

How many people are actually paying the higher 10-13% state tax rate in retirement? And if you are, you can probably afford to "retire" to another state and keep your SD property as a second property (espeically now that you can move your property tax base to another property).

So the key here is to reduce your taxable income by shifting as much to Roth before you get SSA. It does take a little planning ahead of retirement

Submitted by EconProf on April 27, 2021 - 7:33am.

Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave. Our taxes, utility costs, homelessness, and increasingly leftist government at the city, county, school district, and state level are driving this exodus. None of these trends show any sign of reversing. If you are in RE in any capacity, you know that your estimate of the future should determine today’s opinion and actions.
San Diego’s relatively good RE picture today may be largely due to the well-off buyers fleeing the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities, as others here have mentioned. But the same push factors are now becoming evident in SD.
People and businesses are fleeing the difunctional cities and states at an accelerating rate which could well accelerate if there is increasing civil disorder. Great weather and beaches are nice, but not enough for many people and businesses.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on April 27, 2021 - 7:59am.

So the 10 perc bracket starts at 300k and 12 perc at 600k. Photos of people leaving in uhaul trucks aren't in either of these brackets. Well, hell, I am, but I guess I am cheap enough to move myself in a uhaul.

Maybe you're right.

If you're calling a top to ca r.e. long term, prob. As foolish as calling a 20 year top to the nasdaq

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2021 - 12:11pm.

Enjoy St George and check back in when the temps are 110

Data sadly omitted from your post

Submitted by EconProf on April 27, 2021 - 1:27pm.

Will do SDR.
Remember St George is high desert, so is noticeably cooler than Las Vegas. 110 degrees is not common. And there’s a 30 degree swing in temperatures, so mornings are OK.

Submitted by gzz on April 27, 2021 - 3:30pm.

"the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities"

How many $10 billion+ companies were started in California the past decade versus Texas+Utah+Florida? I don't hear much about Dell and Novell these days.

Submitted by an on April 27, 2021 - 4:23pm.

gzz wrote:
"the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities"

How many $10 billion+ companies were started in California the past decade versus Texas+Utah+Florida? I don't hear much about Dell and Novell these days.


I think that's backward looking. To get to $10B, you'd have to start at least 5-10 years ago, unless you get lucky. We all knew CA and NY are where the VC money was. TX and FL were not really on the radar. However, past performance does not guarantee future return. If you want to see where the next set of $10b+ companies will be in 10-20 years, you'd have to look at VC funding today. Today, it's still mostly bay area and NYC. However, Austin has beaten out San Diego (which was @ #10 6 years ago) last year to claim the 10th spot.

Also, just because they start in CA doesn't mean they stay in CA. Just look at Tesla as a prime example. I know that cost of engineers here in CA is driving a lot of companies who have made it past survival mode to look outside of CA. When you're in survival mode and need VC money, you need to be near the money. However, once you're past that stage, distance to VC $ is no longer a high priority but cost of labor is.

Submitted by deadzone on April 27, 2021 - 4:28pm.

EconProf wrote:
Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave. Our taxes, utility costs, homelessness, and increasingly leftist government at the city, county, school district, and state level are driving this exodus. None of these trends show any sign of reversing. If you are in RE in any capacity, you know that your estimate of the future should determine today’s opinion and actions.
San Diego’s relatively good RE picture today may be largely due to the well-off buyers fleeing the more disfunctional LA and Bay Area cities, as others here have mentioned. But the same push factors are now becoming evident in SD.
People and businesses are fleeing the difunctional cities and states at an accelerating rate which could well accelerate if there is increasing civil disorder. Great weather and beaches are nice, but not enough for many people and businesses.

None of those factors are influencing SD RE prices one iota. If/when San Diego real estate prices crash it will be due to a crashing of the current global financial bubble which will affect RE prices in Utah and everywhere else.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2021 - 4:37pm.

EconProf wrote:
Will do SDR.
Remember St George is high desert, so is noticeably cooler than Las Vegas. 110 degrees is not common. And there’s a 30 degree swing in temperatures, so mornings are OK.

But 105 is

Submitted by Myriad on April 27, 2021 - 6:00pm.

EconProf wrote:
Let’s revisit my claim of ‘ominous trends” for San Diego and CA I mentioned that got a lot of criticism. CA’s now declining population is a result of many “push factors” that are causing people and companies to make the very exensive decision to leave.

It's yet to be seen how many people have actually moved out of state vs just moving in state.
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2021-...

Declining native-born population maybe. But the country needs more younger immigrants to offset the aging population and to pay for SSA/Medicare. Immigrants from Asia are highly likely to go to CA and TX - so the population won't decline. Just won't grow as fast as TX, AZ, or FL. But CA is still way better than most NE states, so you'll get people moving away from those states also.
The CA tax burden is much lower than those states.

Costs in SF/SJ/LA/SD are much higher relative to other tier 1 cities in other states. But eventually the main cities in TX, AZ, FL prices will move up also, negating the cost differential over time.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 27, 2021 - 6:11pm.

NY and Boston not cheap. Denver not cheap anymore. Austin not cheap anymore. Raleigh still cheap but getting more expensive by the day. Seattle and Portland not cheap. Phoenix not cheap anymore. Cleveland is cheap.. Have at it

Submitted by Sdcateacher on April 30, 2021 - 5:58pm.

Idaho is over, the fabled day sof getting a spread and agreat house are gone. The #1 destination according to the WSJ is Northern Idaho. Want a great house, low taxes a cheap cost of living? North Carolina or and hour outside of Knoxville. Oklahoma as well. Buy your spread, bank money and spend your free time traveling.

Submitted by Sdcateacher on April 30, 2021 - 5:59pm.

Hahah
I was telling people Ohio, Oklahoma and Iowa will become hot markets for people that can either work from home or retiree and enjoy low taxes and a low cost of living. Plenty of nice areas in those states and you can spend your spare time traveling.

Submitted by EconProf on May 2, 2021 - 9:27am.

Some observations from living here in St. George/Washington City for 4 weeks now.
The people here are friendly, overwhelmingly white (a mixed blessing), young (Utah has the youngest state population), and athletic. Hiking, bicycling clubs abound, gyms aplenty, and everything is cheap, from gasoline to restaurants, to taxes. Ethnic restaurants aplenty, and I count 8 Thai restaurants for SDR to try. No ocean views, but snow-capped mountains visible from everywhere in town. Last of the snow just disappeared however.
Our Brio development of 800 or so homes is about half built out. Since prices are going up so fast, the developer is no longer setting a fixed price and then committing. Instead, you get to bid on a finished product, and then it could become a bidding war. Average time on market for homes in town is 6 days. The broker sets a price, then gives people 5 days to come in with their best offer over that--all cash or pre-qualified only need apply.

Submitted by svelte on May 2, 2021 - 12:42pm.

Have a friend who sold their house for $1M and moved to Texas and purchased a similarly priced house. They got about 1,000SF more and pay 3.3 percent property tax.

They are bored. And their San Diego house has went up 40% in value since they sold it.

Another friend moved to Texas about 5 years ago, then moved to Oklahoma last year. He said leaving California is the worst mistake he ever made...now he's priced out of the areas he liked in CA so it is impossible for him to come back.

I know there are many who move to other states and are happy as a clam. I just don't personally know them.

Submitted by sdduuuude on May 3, 2021 - 10:54am.

I wonder if "snowbirding" will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities - one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 3, 2021 - 11:09am.

sdduuuude wrote:
I wonder if "snowbirding" will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities - one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.

I think actually a condo would work better than a SFH in this type of case (Need someone to look after it while your gone for months at a time).

Although in general I am against owning condos.

Submitted by gzz on May 3, 2021 - 12:17pm.

EP: Sounds like Park City UT in the summer, except it wasn't cheap.

A bidding way in a small Utah town, or anywhere outside large coastal cities, sounds like a very bad move for the buyer.

Short term factors could see a 20% jump in prices in one year, but long term Utah should see housing prices rise only at the level of construction costs.

That's probably on a 2 to 3% long-term growth trendline in middle america.

Utah will see its electricity costs go up when it has to close down its legacy coal power plants. It won't go up to California levels, but the gap will partly disappear.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 3, 2021 - 1:00pm.

sdduuuude wrote:
I wonder if "snowbirding" will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities - one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.

Nobody wants to live in Tucson

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 3, 2021 - 1:16pm.

"Nobody wants to live in Tucson"

Sounds like the Girl in the flatbed Ford looking for an escape.

My bad that was Winslow

Submitted by Coronita on May 3, 2021 - 1:21pm.

I actually like san diego. I don't consider it a liberal cesspool. I think it's pretty well balanced.
I like the bay area, because of the tech scene.

Given the two, I won't mind switching between the two locations to live.

I don't care about L.A. L.A. is an armpit imho.

I've contemplated selling one of my properties and cashing in on the appreciation. Don't need the money, it rented out $1000/month more than last year. I'll let it ride.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 3, 2021 - 1:46pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
"Nobody wants to live in Tucson"

Sounds like the Girl in the flatbed Ford looking for an escape.

My bad that was Winslow

Its sdudes hometown ;)

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 3, 2021 - 4:01pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
sdduuuude wrote:
I wonder if "snowbirding" will become popular for working empty nesters if the working-remote thing sticks.

Could I sell my home in San Diego and buy two kick-ass properties in two different cities - one for Summer living and one for Winter living ?

Tucson for the Winter, Denver in the Summer, for example.
or Phoenix / Idaho or Austin / New Hampshire, etc.

I think actually a condo would work better than a SFH in this type of case (Need someone to look after it while your gone for months at a time).

Although in general I am against owning condos.

One nice van.

Submitted by sdduuuude on May 3, 2021 - 4:37pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Nobody wants to live in Tucson

Tucson is a great place to be from.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 3, 2021 - 9:04pm.

sdduuuude wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Nobody wants to live in Tucson

Tucson is a great place to be from.

That's what I always say about the Philadelphia area

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 4, 2021 - 8:51am.

sdrealtor wrote:
sdduuuude wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Nobody wants to live in Tucson

Tucson is a great place to be from.

That's what I always say about the Philadelphia area

Brooklyn was the nation's breeding ground.

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