San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

Horrible example. That is a house in poor condition and lousy location listed too low. Houses like that which were 350ish in 1997 and now in decent condition are 1.6 ish today maybe more. Stick to what you know

Better example. This house twenty years ago around 400k is a completely different and re built home now.

https://www.redfin.com/CA/San-Diego/2636...

A house in CV was nearly' new twenty years ago and substantially the same today

Here's one in Encintas from twenty years ago and substantially the same house today. No gentrification here, I live nearby and it's substantially the same neighborhood as it was then

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Encinitas/1804...

Wait if you moved here 45 years ago to teach that means you're in your 70s at least. Ominous trends? How long are you planning to live? California has severe issues none of which you mentioned, but man you are engaging in sophistry to a T.
Josh

Barnaby, your math is correct, I am in my 70's.
Ominous trends? Please explain how that is relevant.
Sophistry: "The use of fallacious arguments, especially with the intention of deceiving" according to google. Please explain, and as I used to tell my students, be specific. Show your work...

Obviously the high cost of living, and specifically housing costs, is the main reason to leave California. But you are delusional if you think Politics, or specifically California left wing politics and taxes, are the major reason for high housing prices. I hear this argument all the time by typical Redneck types who like to use the tired "Commifornia" cliche. But the fact is, not nearly enough of you guys are leaving because overall population and housing costs keep going up (due to other reasons that apparently are too complicated for the Fox news set to understand).

If you moved here 45 years ago, that would have been 1976.

My father was an ultra-Republican who could not stand Democrats. In 1970, he moved us from the Midwest to northern California, in the central valley. He bought a 3/2 1500 SF house there for $21K. He became angrier and angrier at California politics and what he perceived as a poor school system, and kept talking about moving us back to the midwest (I was a teen in the 1970s).

In 1975, he did move my family back to the Midwest - to Oklahoma where he grew up. He sold the house in Northern California for about $25-26K I can't remember that number exactly. OK is an ultra-Republican state and was ultra-Republican in the 1970s also.

Having attended both CA and OK schools, I can tell you I didn't see much of a difference. Pretty similar to me.

By 1978, my Dad had had enough of Oklahoma. It wasn't as good as he remembered and after just three years he moved the family back to the central valley in northern California, about 10 miles from where we had lived before. He lived out the rest of his life in that area and while he still grumbled about CA politics, he never even considered leaving CA again.

I just now checked: that house he bought in 1970 for $21K? Zillow says it is worth about $295K right now.

I guess what I'm saying is that making sweeping generalizations about California really doesn't work. The central valley was Republican in the 1970s and is still Republican today. Housing prices haven't went up nearly as much as the coast. In fact, they are right in line with the Midwest.

What you think of as ultra Liberal CA is really just the coast. When you go inland, CA is very Republican and not out of line with housing costs in the Midwest.

So you really didn't have to move to Utah to get the lower costs and Republican neighbors. You could have stayed in CA. You chose the location mainly due to its proximity to your family - which is a very valid reason.

Agree with Josh. More importantly, I can't friggin' wait to use sophistry in a sentence. Had to look it up. I like it.

EP, with your net worth, which, I'm sure is far, far, far greater than that of most Californians--regardless of age-- you can easily choose to live wherever you wish--including anywhere in CA--but if you choose to go, for whatever reason(s), enjoy your wealth and your new life, with no justification necessary.

Its irritating beyond measure to be around a flock of trump supporters, like, i want to vomit, put distance between us, so if liberals make you feel like that, or even 50% of how irritated trumplovers make me feel, its best to separate from that type of idiocy and surround yourself with likeminded republicans who seem to still be trumploving americans.

Actually California has for been a Red state probably longer than a blue state, and has switched back and forth since I have been here.
Probably will again someday.

One thing that always amazes me is how many who leave for financial reasons be it they can't afford it here anymore or want a lower cost of living always seem to trash CA for some other reason. Just take it and like it!

As to ominous trends, I was referencing you:

Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

Pure unadulterated unsupported sophistry.

Sophistry, something which could be true, but is false. Also my favorite GRE word! Never made it through grad school but did love learning that word for the GRE.

Now back to ominous, another cherished GRE word. The whole world is suffering ominous trends. Overpopulation, resource limits and our concerted attempts to do nothing about them are the issue. Also on an economic front the bifuraction of our economy into winner take all tech and everything else with low margins is a real issue. California relatively is in a great position. It still has rich soil, a good (again relatively) education system and attracts the best and brightest in droves. What we haven't figured out how to do is share that equitably with those who aren't best, brightest or both, without turning into a full on socialist fantasyland. If you want to leave, by all means do. Utah is physically GORGEOUS. It is however intellectually speaking the 8th level of hell. It attracts refugees from rich places like CA. Folks who extracted their wealth from CA and are then reviled for ruining it (aka driving up prices) for, "average folks." Plus it doesn't have much water, or industry; I realize that's not important if you're retiring. Whatever ominous trends exist here, Utah and satellite states will always suffer it worse. When the Colorado river water finally gives out, California will get the majority of it, why? Because it's where the people, the intellect and the industrial capacity are.

At a more personal and fundamental level flyer is right you don't have to justify yourself to me or anyone else. I have to say however this thread, given what little I know about you just screams scared old white person running from a changing world and thats sad. You are or were a professor and that implies (one would hope) a thinker. To uproot yourself from the life you have known for 45 years because you don't like change just seems sad. This thread would have been much more positive if it'd started out with, we're leaving to go to X,Y,Z, not running from A,B,Change....
Josh

Josh it's just the standard I'm leaving CA for my own personal reasons but hey it's an opportunity to throw the state under the bus for the things that have always annoyed me. It's like the annual articles by the mass media that people and businesses are leaving CA in droves. I laugh everytime I read them

Any 7th grader taking an economics class should be embarrassed to make such a ridiculous claim. You can't seriously be an economics professor. If you really are an econ prof, and you taught any of that nonsense to your students, I feel very sorry for them that they had you for a professor.

>Stick to what you know

I have seen the data and do know. I picked a random example, and you say that's a bad example and mispriced. But it would be easy for you to show me contrary examples.

Low end areas went up more than high end areas, that's the case in both the current and prior bull markets as well as the very long term trend.

Areas that started medium-low and gentrified went up the most.

Sorry, the gentrified areas that used to have high crime and now are high end went up more than suburban areas that were always nice. That's the case here, as well as LA and the Bay Area.

Not sure why you laugh at that, it is fact that many businesses are leaving California due to various anti-business liberal policies from high taxes to ridiculous requirements such as public companies having to have certain % of board members from minority and women.

But in spite of businesses and individuals leaving, housing costs keep skyrocketing. So the point is his claim that these liberal politics are responsible for the high housing costs is total BS.

I laugh because virtually the same article gets written every year. Yes some companies leave but just as many start and/or grow to the point of being a big time success. There are assets and infrastructure that exist in CA that dont elsewhere. The premature demise of CA is often reported on but we just keep chugging along here. The door is plainly visible for anyone that would like to walk through it just dont expect to be able to return to the same lifestyle

California's major market housing prices are not especially high compared to other high income and high amenity urban areas with low crime and strong investor protections. Check out prices in Sydney and Tel Aviv as two wealthy places with mild weather plus safe and stable.

You can also look at Seattle, but your might find your home is suddenly with a "CHOP" mob ruled area for a month.

Prices do seem a bit high in our lower income inland cities like Fresno compared to similar places elsewhere in the sunbelt. That may be a Prop 13 artifact.

Fresno population: 525K
Omaha, NE population: 475K

Fresno average home price: $290K (per Zillow)
Omaha average home price: $221K (per Zillow)

Maybe slightly higher, but not outrageously higher.

Although the world trends are ominous, i think it should be a non issue if yourein your 70s, be dead before it gets ugly.

It is funny, a guy works for the ca govt, sucks the state teat of State U for half a century, extracts massive wealth and takes off to save a few bucks cuz taxes n shit.

Its ron swanson from parks and rec. The anti gov gov worker.

Lol. My dad was the same way. There was an uncle-in-law(is that a thing?) of mine that my dad hated. He said he had a weak moral compass because he didn't believe in his employer (my uncle lived in a house when he was a mobile home salesman, then moved to a trailer when he became a realtor).

My Dad would complain at great length at how bad the federal government was and the inefficiencies he saw in the Air Force. Yet when he retired after 20 years in the Air Force, he went right back and joined the Civil Service for 20 more years. I never did point out to him that his actions didn't match his words, and how he seemed to have similar actions to my uncle.

I agree that being concerned about finances, especially when you have more money than you'll ever need for yourself and your family, ad infinitum, isn't necessary.

EP has enjoyed wealth for many years, and is now fortunate enough to be living to an advanced age--which many won't,(mortality rates in the US from various causes are rising among many age groups--especially 25-64 from what I've read) so he is free to enjoy life wherever he chooses!

I think some of you folks with money should spend less time blogging about how much money you have to overcome whatever insecurity issues you might have wrto your peers (who may/may not have more money than you)... and spend more time spending it and actually enjoying it versus attempting to fish for self validation on an internet blog that you are financially better off than some people...financilly better off, maybe. Happier, most likely not..aimless, pointless, vacuous, meaningless life, to have no purpose of said wealth...taken to the grave...

Thanks to all for the feedback, both positive and negative.
We’ve now lived here for three weeks, and it is exceeding our high expectations.
Regarding California’s population—it is declining in absolute terms. If you believe otherwise, your information is old. Census comes out with annual estimates in the first quarter of the year, and then as more data comes in gives us a revised member in July. The very latest figures show a decline.
This is in marked contrast to California’s reputation as a destination, and for decades that reputation was deserved. But the rate of growth has declined for about five years and the latest revision shows an absolute decline.

I call this an “ominous trend”. Piggs are free to speculate on the causes, but I believe the Census figures and expect them to accelerate in the years ahead.

A single population change number doesn't mean much. Would be nice to know more detailed data on median and average household income of who's moving out vs who's moving in. Would be nice to remove people under 18 as well, since they're not really contributing to society yet. Would also be nice to know which cities their influx migrations are moving to and more specifically, relating to housing, what are their housing preference (condo vs SFR). Would also be nice to know the median/average age of the people moving in vs moving out as well.

Congratulations on surviving the harsh Spring time weather. Please check back in after Summer

EP: California has been net losing native-born American population for decades. All that's happening now is the net immigration is dropping fast too.

From my perspective, I prefer quality over quantity. I don't know an easy way to look to see if this is a real trend, but it certainly seems like we're getting less "huddled masses" and more highly educated immigrants, both young and mid-career.

As for "ominous trends," we're seeing a strong trend toward smaller household sizes, especially in older suburbs. The fact that empty nest boomers are staying in 3 and 4 bedroom SFRs when earlier generations might have moved to a smaller apartment or multi-gen household does not strike me as ominous, but simply the result of California's very low property taxes and general high quality of life and prosperity.

To take a random example, Del Mar's population dropped from 4,389 in the 2000 census to 4,161 in 2010.

If Ca population is really going down, that is not an ominous trend, that is great news. In the long run that would result in lower housing costs and less traffic among other things. The main reasons that I will most likely leave San Diego when I am retired is the high cost of living and the heavy population and traffic. Those would be the obvious reasons to move to Utah in my opinion, I could give a rats ass about what political party is in Sacramento.

The irony is I've always felt retirement in place is one of the best parts of living here. All my friends back East always looked forward to retiring in a beautiful place with a warm climate. I've been enjoying that all along and don't need to move to get that. Of course they say they go to Florida because of low cost of living and taxes. But truth is they buy more expensive homes there and join expensive country clubs. If the weather sucked they wouldn't be moving there either. Kinda defeats the argument of low cost of living and taxes as a reason to a large degree. I'm staying put!

"Californians may have been undercounted in the 2020 Census.

The Census Bureau’s decennial population count will have far-reaching consequences for California’s political representation and federal funding. Three in four Californians belong to one or more hard-to-count groups: children, young men, Latino and African American residents, and renters. Noncitizens may also have been particularly reluctant to participate, given the Trump administration’s actions to curtail immigration and its attempt to add a citizenship question to the census form. The pandemic further upended outreach efforts and affected in-person follow-ups by census workers. Parts of the final count will become available starting in April 2021, but it will take longer to fully discern how disruptions may have affected the count’s accuracy."

https://www.ppic.org/publication/califor...