Goodbye to San Diego

User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 2, 2021 - 4:05pm.

I would submit that IMO exactly zero politicians would do anything that could lower the tax base (such as low cost housing in mass).

They talk a good game but it will only go through if it does not lower rents or home values.

And if they ever do they would be recalled immediately.

Submitted by phaster on March 2, 2021 - 4:53pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I would submit that IMO exactly zero politicians would do anything that could lower the tax base (such as low cost housing in mass).

They talk a good game but it will only go through if it does not lower rents or home values.

And if they ever do they would be recalled immediately.

...Recall Jen Campbell???

https://www.piggington.com/node/27310

Quote:

San Diego leaders propose vacancy tax, community land trusts for housing crisis

Democrat-dominated City Council explores bold ideas after years focused on incentives, streamlined regulations

By DAVID GARRICK
FEB. 8, 2021 6 AM PT

SAN DIEGO — San Diego’s new Democrat-dominated City Council is proposing several bold ideas to tackle the city’s affordable housing crisis, including creating community land trusts, a rent registry, vacancy taxes and forcing landlords to rent to people with pets.

City officials have routinely listed the housing crisis as a top priority, but most of the legislation they have passed in recent years has focused on streamlining existing regulations and creating new incentives for housing developers.

The exceptions are two efforts spearheaded by former City Council President Georgette Gómez to preserve existing low-income units and strengthen the city’s “inclusionary” law so developers must build more low-income units.

Now the City Council, with an 8-1 Democratic majority and five new members, is proposing that San Diego begin exploring more aggressive ideas.

They say solving the housing crisis has become more important with the city’s greater focus on social equity. Minorities are the most impacted by scarce housing, they say.

Council members Vivian Moreno, Dr. Jennifer Campbell and Raul Campillo said they want the city to study a possible vacancy tax, which would tax the owners of undeveloped lots and landlords who have empty units.

www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/politi...

Should San Diego establish some type of vacancy tax?

Some San Diego City Council members [i.e. JEN CAMPBELL] are considering a variety of progressive proposals aimed at cutting housing costs, including an additional tax on owners of empty lots or landlords with unoccupied units.

The idea is money from the tax could be used to fund construction for subsidized housing and encourage landowners to build new housing or sell to someone who will.

www.sandiegouniontribune.com/business/st...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 2, 2021 - 5:28pm.

Yea probably LOL,

The only thing these would do if enacted (talking is one thing doing is another) is cause a mass exit of Mom&Pop landlords from the game, and big corporate landlords to jack up prices even further.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 2, 2021 - 5:50pm.

hanging out in east village, it looks like a huge percentage of the high rise condos are unoccupied. not sure if those statistics are anywhere? they just look...empty...

Submitted by EconProf on March 2, 2021 - 7:54pm.

spdrun wrote:
Isn't Leavenworth also a military prison?

Leavenworth also has a major military base, but that is separate from the Federal Penitentiary I taught at. The base goes back to frontier days and has a storied history. The university I taught at was in St. Joseph, MO, 45 miles away, and where the Pony Express riders started their relay-type trip to Sacramento.
My students at Leavenworth had a sense of humor. Once, during a lecture, two bells went off, a sound I had never heard before while teaching there. I asked the class what that meant. One guy said "Its a signal to take hostages". They all laughed, except me.
A few minutes three bells went off. I asked what that was supposed to mean. "It means to kill the hostages".

Submitted by Myriad on March 3, 2021 - 9:21am.

phaster wrote:

...Commercial real estate broker Adrian Glover has consulted on hotel transactions for decades, representing buyers and sellers. He said the city paid too much for the two Residence Inn properties.

“Hotels are worth probably 30 percent to 40 percent less than they were a year ago because of COVID-19,” he said. “This should have come out in the due-diligence period” of the escrow process.

Based on capitalization rates reflected in the CBRE appraisals — the measure of annual returns on investment — the city will lose about $866,000 a year in hotel taxes, plus $100,000 or more in annual income for the tourism marketing district.

Yep, the city should stop buying RE - they are f*** terrible at it.
I looked up the prices as the Marriott Mission Valley was up for sale a while back. It was $242k/key in April 2019. Who pays more for a Residence Inn, only politicians do.

Submitted by phaster on March 6, 2021 - 4:26pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Went on a walk with a neighbor friend this weekend that has a place up in Brian Head. He grew up in Mass so loves the winter fun and snowmobiling up there. They have great golf courses in St George also.

as a teen did some skiing in Brian Head and always thought it would be neat to have a vacation home there or up in the mammoth lakes area because those areas seemed so "lush" WRT SD

last week drove one of my vehicles out to Julian to charge up my battery and also get some apple pie (figured I'd kill two birds w/ one stone)

anyway what I noticed is it's really dry out in east county AND this seems to be the case w/ the rest of CA according to news reports

Quote:

California is bone dry. Will March bring more misery or a miracle?

...Los Angeles and Southern California have lots of company in this respect. The state and the West are gripped by persistent drought, including large areas of exceptional drought in the Southwest

https://news.yahoo.com/california-bone-d...

the reason I mention as a teen thinking Brian Head and Mammoth were lush and wanting a vacation home/ranch is realize things were quickly changing

as a teen what I thought was normal (areas of the western USA being "lush") was actually abnormal in the grand scheme of things

point being many parts of the western USA can be in drought conditions for thousands of years

https://historytogo.utah.gov/danger-cave/

as an "investor" in real estate the extended period of drought made me think it important to investigate the potential of fire storms in a location

sadly growing up and taking classes @ UCSD I lost the "dream" that a place like Brian Head was lush

basically after learning more about the long term climate conditions in the south western USA can be in drought for thousand of years,...this implies there was an elevated risk of fire, which means higher insurance rates or even the possibility of not being able to get insurance (due to co$t$)

https://www.latimes.com/california/story...

my drive out to Julian prompted me to do is google info on the topic of drought/wildfire AND rediscovered news items about the last big fires here in SD

Quote:

Revisiting a San Diego County story from 2005: “Choppers devour millions”

https://fireaviation.com/2021/02/10/revi...

thought it important to bring up the topic of fire storms because given our dry winter weather conditions,... this summer the odds of a devastating wildfire is something everyone should keep in mind

Submitted by phaster on March 20, 2021 - 9:51pm.

Myriad wrote:

Yep, the city should stop buying RE - they are f*** terrible at it.

I looked up the prices as the Marriott Mission Valley was up for sale a while back. It was $242k/key in April 2019. Who pays more for a Residence Inn, only politicians do.

speaking of "genius" real estate deals FWIW ya might find the following pod cast interesting,...

Quote:

Kevin Faulconer’s City Hall and 101 Ash:
The Worst Land Deal and the Biggest Cover-up


Art Castanares of LaPrensa San Diego, is joined by guest host, Barbara Bry to discuss 101 Ash Street. This premiere episode features an exclusive interview with attorney Lawrence Shea on city of San Diego's disastrous 101 Ash Street deal.

(Originally aired on 2March21)

https://anchor.fm/btc8


since faulconer is termed out of local office, seems he's scheming to be governor

https://www.kevinfaulconer.com

too bad there wasn't a virus that takes out the yuge population of "no talent ass clowns" (i.e. career politicians/pundits) to make the world a better place

...on the bright side had to laugh at the description DeMaio gave of faulconer (i.e. “Meg Whitman without the dress”)

Quote:

The fighting over California's top job has begun — among Republicans

...Two prominent Republicans have already launched their campaigns — former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer and businessman John Cox, who lost badly to Newsom in 2018.

Since launching his gubernatorial run, Faulconer has quickly sought to position himself as the establishment pick. He rolled out a slate of endorsements from Republican lawmakers. A mailer from his campaign stresses that Faulconer was able to win in populous, diverse San Diego by persuading independent voters. That offers a “credible shot at winning statewide, despite California’s challenging voter registration,” the piece argues.

But convincing the Chamber of Commerce is different from convincing MAGA adherents. Faulconer’s foes are already seeking to portray him as a milquetoast moderate who would not excite voters. Cox, who lost to Newsom in a landslide in 2018, has highlighted dubious real estate deals to try and portray Faulconer as corrupt. Cox attacked his rival in an ad entitled “Gavin Faulconer.”

“I’m attacking corruption. I’m attacking incompetence and mismanagement. I don’t care if it’s Republican or Democrat,” Cox said in an interview. “I don’t think Kevin Faulconer has any business running for governor.”

Faulconer has also drawn steady fire from former San Diego Councilman Carl DeMaio, a longtime rival and staunch Trump supporter who hosts a popular conservative talk radio show. DeMaio launched a website that portrays Faulconer as a liberal in disguise, drawing a public rebuke from Rep. Darrell Issa (R-Calif.).

Choosing an establishment-favored centrist like Faulconer would squander the energy and enthusiasm galvanizing California Republicans, DeMaio argues. He said California Republicans, desperate for a victory, have “demoralized the base” by seeking to elevate someone more like the Democrats.”

“It is vitally important to rebuild the infrastructure in the state. A recall race – win, lose, or draw – can be a real turning point for the Republican Party. You can only do this if you have a candidate you can be proud of and who can motivate the base,” DeMaio said in an interview, arguing that Faulconer’s ascendancy was “part of the death-spiral of the Republican party” and calling Faulconer “Meg Whitman without the dress.”

https://www.politico.com/states/californ...

Submitted by EconProf on March 27, 2021 - 5:15pm.

We just got back from our "walk-through" of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price--they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
Gosh, I wonder why.

Submitted by Coronita on March 27, 2021 - 5:38pm.

EconProf wrote:
We just got back from our "walk-through" of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price--they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
Gosh, I wonder why.

I dont know. The market looks pretty hot here in SD too.

Submitted by spdrun on March 27, 2021 - 7:33pm.

You ran all the way to Utah to live in a "planned community" with an HOA who'll want to control how to live?

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 27, 2021 - 10:35pm.

EconProf wrote:
We just got back from our "walk-through" of the new house and will move in this Friday. Brio is one of many developments this company has done, and they are pros. 400 or so well-designed houses and condos, nearby clubhouse, pools, exercise room, tennis, pickleball, etc. two blocks away. Our 2700 SF single-level has views of snow-capped mountains. Glad we locked in the price last July at approximately $550,000, because the same model is now $57,000 higher.
Talking to the sales manager at Brio and various realtors in town reveals how hot this market is.
New listings are gobbled up in a week and bidding wars are the norm. All the contractors are super busy, and it takes a year to get a house built. One result is that developers of communities no longer quote a fixed price--they realize that waiting until the house is built costs them too much in lost appreciation. Plus they can get hurt by the rising labor and materials costs (lumber has doubled). So they have to build spec homes and then put them on the market, meaning buyers no longer get to chose their colors, options, cabinets, etc., as we did.
Growth in nearby Cedar City (50 minutes up I-15), and Hurricane (20 minutes away) is nearly as frantic as St. George).
So the population is booming, and it is all from an influx of buyers, mainly from California.
Gosh, I wonder why.

People cashing out. I have two neighbors about to. Nothing to buy in red hot CA so they limp out of state to find something else

Submitted by Coronita on March 28, 2021 - 11:01am.

spdrun wrote:
You ran all the way to Utah to live in a "planned community" with an HOA who'll want to control how to live?

Is that what a co-op is in NYC?

Submitted by spdrun on March 28, 2021 - 11:25am.

^^^

Sure, but if I moved to Utah or Nevada, I'd look for a few acres out in the desert where I could do whatever the hell I wanted. Weld and build stuff at midnight, test motorcycle engines at 3 am, raise chickens, put up solar panels, hang laundry in the yard, etc. Isn't that the charm of living in a sparsely-populated state?

Also, HOAs make sense in structures where units share walls. They're overkill in single-home communities. Why would I need someone to tell me what color my door should be painted or what age my car is allowed to be? I can decide that myself.

Submitted by Coronita on March 28, 2021 - 11:54am.

Ok. If you say so...

Submitted by EconProf on March 29, 2021 - 5:29am.

A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity--the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2021 - 8:54am.

Numbers seem off. Village Park homes in Encinitas were in the 20's when built in the 70s. Those are now in the low 1m's. Past client bought oceanfront house in Carlsbad in mid 70s for around 80k and it's worth 6-8m today. If your numbers aren't off you made very poor investments

Submitted by EconProf on March 29, 2021 - 11:04am.

Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.

Submitted by flyer on March 29, 2021 - 12:09pm.

EconProf wrote:
A bit of history about San Diego from this geeser. When we first moved here so I could teach at SDSU, 45 years ago, CA was the land of opportunity--the Golden State. Pete Wilson was the San Diego mayor, later CA senator. CA was Reagan country and the government was efficient, taxes were reasonable, and politics were competitive. A 3 Br, 2 Ba house in the suburb of El Cajon averaged $45,000 in price, the same as the national average. Now the left owns the state, government unions control K-12, the universities, and virtually all city, county, and state offices. Our high taxes, draconian regulations, skyrocketing utility bills are what make CA houses cost three times what the same house will cost in Utah, AZ, Texas, etc. Which explains why CA population is actually shrinking of late in absolute terms. Yes, we have our great weather, the ocean, and hip culture. But the trends are ominous, and the future is dire compared to that of our neighboring states.

We've seen our investment and personal properties, especially coastal, skyrocket since we started investing many years ago, but I think you speak for a great number of people who are finding the current state of CA challenging in many ways, so moving elsewhere makes sense.

I've spoken to many people who have no idea of how their kids will ever be able to buy a home in CA, let alone save for retirement. Of course, there will always be those who continue to live beyond their means in order to stay in CA, and that will not bode well long-term. The bottom line is everyone has to do what's best for them, and enjoy the short time we all have on earth.

Submitted by Coronita on March 29, 2021 - 1:08pm.

flyer wrote:

We've seen our investment and personal properties, especially coastal, skyrocket since we started investing many years ago, but I think you speak for a great number of people who are finding the current state of CA challenging in many ways, so moving elsewhere makes sense.

Nobody gives a shit how much money you inherited. That's what's great about this country. Everyone the same. Everyone ends up in the ground the same way...

Truly wealthy people don't waste their time mentioning how much money they have every opening sentence on a blog..because they have nothing to prove and don't have insecurity issues from being excluded from an elite member of the wealthy club. it's usually all the B and C players that do.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2021 - 1:30pm.

EconProf wrote:
Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.

Great work! Anyone that invested 45 years ago made a killing. Its just the numbers you posted dont look great relative to most Ive seen. Either way simply buying and holding that long makes you look very astute

Submitted by gzz on March 29, 2021 - 1:53pm.

The top appreciation came for areas that gentrified, not necessarily on the coast.

That's a mix of coastal areas (OB, South PB, Encinitas) and inland areas (Hillcrest, East Village, and North Park).

Submitted by svelte on March 29, 2021 - 2:07pm.

sdrealtor wrote:

People cashing out. I have two neighbors about to. Nothing to buy in red hot CA so they limp out of state to find something else

Sales are strong throughout California that is true.

But as long as you get away from the major cities, prices are reasonable. Monday, my son put in an offer that was accepted for a 1500+ SF home in the Sierra Nevada foothills. He is getting it for $400K. House was on market 7 days and he was one of four offers.

And here is what I don't understand...I keep hearing people say that CA is losing population, yet housing prices are still heading up. Somehow that does not equate.

Submitted by sdrealtor on March 29, 2021 - 3:14pm.

gzz wrote:
The top appreciation came for areas that gentrified, not necessarily on the coast.

That's a mix of coastal areas (OB, South PB, Encinitas) and inland areas (Hillcrest, East Village, and North Park).

Carmel Valley, Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo disagree

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 29, 2021 - 3:40pm.

IMO People are trying to get ahead of the proposed $15,000 tax credit.

IMO if you think the market is on fire now just wait LOL.

(at least for first time starter homes.)

But would agree as well just need to get away from coastal big cities, then prices are not much different than moving out of state in the middle of nowhere.

Submitted by flyer on March 29, 2021 - 6:31pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
EconProf wrote:
Actually I made quite a lot on houses, apartments, and commercial properties, to the point where landlording income dwarfed teaching income.
I mentioned El Cajon because that was a typical blue-collar suburb then. As you must know, coastal properties in San Diego have appreciated much faster over the decades than inland.

Great work! Anyone that invested 45 years ago made a killing. Its just the numbers you posted dont look great relative to most Ive seen. Either way simply buying and holding that long makes you look very astute

Great on all of the real estate wins--EP--enjoy your new life! Looks like a beautiful spot, and with close family ties--it should be fantastic!

Submitted by scaredyclassic on March 30, 2021 - 9:12am.

What does our actual day consist of, v. What do we fantasize our actual days might consist of.

For an actual day your place looks awesome

Submitted by gzz on April 1, 2021 - 1:17pm.

>Carmel Valley, Carlsbad and Rancho Bernardo disagree

I rather doubt that. CV was fairly recent and expensive when developed. It did great, but didn't get that extra gentrification boost. Those areas likely outperformed inner areas during the past year's Run For the Burbs, but not over 20-30 years.

Submitted by sdrealtor on April 1, 2021 - 8:29pm.

Sorry, Ive run the numbers before

Submitted by gzz on April 2, 2021 - 2:09pm.

Here's a thought experiment. Take a place in north park and Carmel Valley that are both worth $1.5 million right now.

Now think about what they would have cost in 1997.

Are you saying the NP property would have been more expensive than the CV property? Because that's the implication of saying CV appreciated more than NP.

Here's an example of what I am mean. A CV place that was $350k in 1997, now $1.1m though maybe it will go for more like 1.25.

https://www.sdlookup.com/MLS-NDP2103325-...

In gentrified areas, some similar places that are now worth $1.1+ would have been more like 100-250k back then.

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