Goodbye to San Diego

User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by EconProf on July 30, 2022 - 5:50am.

Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

Submitted by Coronita on July 30, 2022 - 6:58am.

F50...

Bingo!

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 30, 2022 - 8:42am.

EconProf wrote:
As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021.

Not sure if your statistic is for City of San Diego or County of San Diego. But if it's for City of San Diego then the city is losing 0.35% per year. If for county it's losing 0.16% per year. Either way it's a pretty tiny decline.

EconProf wrote:

No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

Sea change? Less than 1% per year is a Sea Change? The fact that you extrapolate this tiny decline into the end of good living in San Diego is showing your prejudices and biases.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2022 - 9:56am.

EconProf wrote:
Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

ZombieProf is back!

This thread is about more than you and SG it is about the constant stream of decades long prognostications about the demise of CA. And yes lots of people left SD during the pandemic. I hope most of thoise youngsters are enjoying life in their parents basement back in the Midwest. Because of them my wait at the coffee shop is an extra 3 minutes each morning

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2022 - 9:58am.

Coronita wrote:
F50...

Bingo!

There is no F'in BINGO in San Diego

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on July 30, 2022 - 10:14am.

EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego populationSan Diego population

Submitted by Coronita on July 30, 2022 - 11:11am.

EconProf. Are your sources for the decline counting or not counting undocumented people in 2021....har har har.

Submitted by an on July 30, 2022 - 12:47pm.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego populationSan Diego population


Ouch

Submitted by EconProf on July 31, 2022 - 7:28am.

To an and others:
I googled "Is San Diego gaining or losing population?"
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years' trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want--I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don't know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don't know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego's competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

Submitted by utcsox on July 31, 2022 - 10:33am.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego populationSan Diego population

Oftentimes the first thing that shows up in your google search query might not be the best one. In this particular case, data that is cited by EconProf is of higher quality. Per U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, San Diego County has a population of 3,286,069 in July 2021 and 3,297,252 in July 2020. If you subtract the 2021 population estimate from the 2020 population estimate, you get exactly 11,183.

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/tim...

Under Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (SUB-EST2021) section.

Submitted by an on July 31, 2022 - 12:07pm.

utcsox wrote:
FormerSanDiegan wrote:
EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego populationSan Diego population

Oftentimes the first thing that shows up in your google search query might not be the best one. In this particular case, data that is cited by EconProf is of higher quality. Per U.S. Census Bureau population estimates, San Diego County has a population of 3,286,069 in July 2021 and 3,297,252 in July 2020. If you subtract the 2021 population estimate from the 2020 population estimate, you get exactly 11,183.

Source: https://www.census.gov/data/datasets/tim...

Under Incorporated Places and Minor Civil Divisions Datasets: Subcounty Resident Population Estimates: April 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 (SUB-EST2021) section.


2020 number is an official number and 2021 number is an estimate. Comparing official numbers to estimate is not good. Official 2010 number is 3,095,313. So, SD County officially gained 6.569% over those 10 years period. We'll see where SD counter will officially be in 8-9 years when they release 2030 numbers. Seems like we're debating over rounding errors at this point.

As they say, there's lies, damn lies, and statistics. Total population changes only tell you part of the picture. Now, as for how population affects RE price, it's more important to know what's the population changes for people making over $200k.

Also, if population decrease as dire as portrayed, then I don't understand why rent has gone up the way it has been over the last couple of years. Rent is as capitalistic (econ 101, supply vs demand) as you can get, IMHO.

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 31, 2022 - 1:28pm.

EconProf wrote:
To an and others:
What is clear is that San Diego's competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

What a bunch of laughable malarkey. San Diego County's population drops a third of a percent (0.33916 percent to be exact) and EconProf calls it a sea change, and claims that this drop of less than one percent is proof that people are voting with their feet. All hoping to justify their previous claims of California going to the birds. Give me a break, have the decency to put together a slightly coherent argument before posting such rubbish.

Submitted by flyer on July 31, 2022 - 7:10pm.

It seems whatever may be going on with out-migration from San Diego will be eclipsed by in-migration.

Per the article below concerning various apartment projects, not to mention countless other new home, condo and apartment builds in PQ, Poway, Sorrento Mesa, etc., etc. it appears that we need to build 17,000 units PER YEAR, just to keep up with demand, and we are no where near that number. Also, don't forget many of the thousands of apartment dwellers aspire to be homeowners one day.

The rest of CA wrt housing may tell a different story, but, from a real estate perspective, San Diego seems to be looking good well into the future.

https://www.10news.com/news/local-news/m...

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 31, 2022 - 6:59pm.

EconProf wrote:
To an and others:
I googled "Is San Diego gaining or losing population?"
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years' trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want--I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don't know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don't know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego's competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

Were growing not are. Things change fast and those three markets are among the hardest hit over the last few months

Submitted by Coronita on July 31, 2022 - 8:21pm.

I don't know...But on that other thread about Apple... If a company spends 1/2 billion dollars on office space in San Diego, that doesn't seem to suggest we are slowing down anytime soon.

In fact, I think what will happen is higher paid professionals move here.

Will that drive out people who are lower paid, maybe. But I would say it's a labor pool swap versus Exodus

But I guess EconProf is like deadzone and selectively wants to pick and choose the news to follow.

https://www.piggington.com/apples_plans

Total job growth from Apple's tech expansion at St. George: 0.01%

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 1, 2022 - 8:03am.

Can’t believe it’s taken me this long to post this. Love this song and listen to it often.

One way you’d leave this town….

https://youtu.be/xBaTTB0o4oY

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 1, 2022 - 3:08pm.

XBoxBoy][quote=EconProf wrote:
San Diego County's population drops a third of a percent (0.33916 percent to be exact) and EconProf calls it a sea change,

Full fathom five thy father lies;
Of his bones are coral made;
Those are pearls that were his eyes:
Nothing of him that doth fade,
But doth suffer a sea-change
Into something rich and strange.
Sea-nymphs hourly ring his knell:
Ding-dong.
Hark! now I hear them,—ding-dong, bell

Submitted by Escoguy on August 7, 2022 - 10:06am.

Informal Uber rider survey

Of my roughly 800 passengers since May, only one person talked about leaving SD. Several new arrivals from New York (very giddy) and from the Bay Areas.

Woman wanted to leave was from Florida working at a bar in PB and complained about her tips being too low as a "drink server" saying all the tips went to the bar tenders.

Even recent grads working for $23 at Starbucks are staying in spite of not finding careers in their field of study "who know a psychology major only gets $16/hour starting pay". The price of following one's "passion". She mentioned stickiness of family business/customers etc.

Meanwhile, more riders from Apple, Biotech, accounting firms, fair number from Ukraine, occasional from Russia as well (sometimes living higher end)/sometimes desperate.

I almost wish EconProf would change his name as my dad was an economics professor.

There's a reason it's called "the dismal science" harking back to Malthus and the looming shortages caused by overpopulation.

Most of us have the benefit of accidental "humility" by not bestowing titles on ourselves in our profiles.

I guess I could call myself CPA/MBA/Multilingual but that may imply competence beyond the scope of the pertinent discussion.

Needless to say, almost all out of towners make mental plans to come back and or move here once they have visited.

Did hear about some Ukrainians going back to fight but they were from Folsom and worked at a truck plant up there, maybe some left San Diego too.

Submitted by flyer on August 7, 2022 - 6:06pm.

I honestly think most of us have chosen easy handles that we feel are a small representation of who we are, as EP has done, and I'm sure most of us would be qualified to add many layers to those names, if we wanted to, just as you mentioned.

Concerning your Uber survey. It's very interesting that you're seeing such diversity in the people visiting and those trying to make it in San Diego. As natives, our family has seen this for years among the newbies. Talk is cheap, and lots of people come here with big ideas, but not all seem to last--especially when it comes to their kids being able to sustain a desirable lifestyle here.

Since more seem to be coming in from more affluent backgrounds, the stats on sustaining a desirable life here long term among the newbies might improve to some degree, but it would be fun to be able to check back with them in 10+ years to see where they are then.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 8, 2022 - 7:15am.

handles are funny things. My wife says I'm scaredy about some things, but absurdly brave about others. professors might have very narrow expertise (the history of economics in 17th century jewish stetls in the ukraine, for instance, but not in others). We are all much bigger than our handles.

Submitted by sdrealtor on August 8, 2022 - 8:47am.

I y’am what I y’am yet so much more

Submitted by scaredyclassic on August 10, 2022 - 7:21am.

Probably the best subject to develop expertise in is the self.

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