Goodbye to San Diego

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Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 13, 2022 - 5:07pm.

So now the bets are fed to raise 100 bases points in July meeting.

Wow I think they will find themselves reversing course very fast IMO ( well if my theory holds anyway LOL)

Submitted by flyer on July 13, 2022 - 11:51pm.

EP, as I've said before, the nice thing about your situation is that you did the SoCal thing longer than most people ever will, and now, I'm sure, you can probably live wherever you choose, anytime you choose, just as we can.

Along with many of our business interests, we have family and friends all over CA, and elsewhere, but the majority are in CA, including our kids, so, for us, continuing to live here most of the time makes the most sense.

I talk to people all of the time who, for numerous reasons, admit they are stuck wherever they are, and couldn't make a change--even if their lives depended on it--even some in CA. Others dreamed of living in CA, but weren't able to make their dreams a reality for many years, so they feel they missed out on living their dreams when they were young, which is really sad.

None of the above apply to you, so, you've already won, and even though SG is different, the fact that you have chosen where you want to be at this time in your life doesn't need to be defended, but, simply, enjoyed.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 10:08am.

Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 20, 2022 - 10:16am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450

Still too early to tell. Current inventory is below pre-Covid average and asking prices are just meaningless. Not until we get closed prices that clearly show a trend will you have a cratering.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 11:37am.

Yes just like here but not as low in comparison. Last I checked we were around 40% of 2019 inventory here. Median Asking prices dropped 100k+ close to 15% in four months. Don’t ask, don’t get as my mom always told me. If that is accurate it is definitely cratering

Submitted by Pbranding on July 20, 2022 - 12:09pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Yes just like here but not as low in comparison. Last I checked we were around 40% of 2019 inventory here. Median Asking prices dropped 100k+ close to 15% in four months. Don’t ask, don’t get as my mom always told me. If that is accurate it is definitely cratering

Sdr, you had predicted 10% drop by 2023 do you still think that?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 4:56pm.

Yes the median which means in many places and in some places more. But I wouldn’t expect uniform drop. I bought a NP condo in 2010 for almost 70% off 2005 price. I sold six years later for almost the 05 price. If I’d held it’s now 60% higher than 05 price. My primary dropped at most 22% and is now more than 2x the 05 price. That kind of thing will happen again

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 25, 2022 - 7:26am.

Generally speaking population shifting from big eastern and northern cities to smaller sunbelt cities.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/busines...

It’s as if boomers are retiring

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 25, 2022 - 8:53am.

My friends on the east coast often joke that its a state law in NY and NJ that you must move to Florida by your 65th birthday.

Submitted by an on July 25, 2022 - 9:39am.

It's very interesting to see that San Diego is actually on the list for people moving in. Considering how expensive it is here. How will this affect RE prices over the next few decades. Considering that we're still under building. Between boomers retiring and millenials reaching family formation age, which will drive home purchasing demand as they start having kids.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2022 - 7:54am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
My friends on the east coast often joke that its a state law in NY and NJ that you must move to Florida by your 65th birthday.

That’s a rule. Most of my friends have Florida homes and began shifting residency once kids were all out of high school. People been doing that forever

Submitted by flyer on July 26, 2022 - 6:31pm.

Agree, San Diego is definitely in high demand. Glad to see our city booming in every way.

Have lots of friends who have relocated here over the years. Many considered FL, the Carolinas, etc. but I encouraged them to think twice about those choices.

Having spent time in FL with friends and family, and having had some properties there, we know we'd never want to move there for many reasons. For those who only live there for the few nice times of the year, and can live with the heat, humidity, pests, and many other issues, not the least of which are hurricanes and tornadoes, there are many beautiful places to live, as well as other perks, but it would never work for us year round. We know lots of people who feel that way, but it does seem to work for some people, since that state is also booming.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 9:04am.

I grew up in NJ and have tons of friends/family with homes in Florida. They generally fall into 3 categories. This is a broad generalization but its hard for me to think of many exceptions

1. Working class - moved after high school/college (not a highly ranked one) to get to better weather/beach area. They work a regular job, have been there a long time and live there full time. They just deal with it and get out to travel when they can

2. Professional class - at some point in their professional career picked up a second home in Florida that was mostly a vacation home. Many have upgraded over the years. They spend more time there over the years and some upgrade while spending the more than 183 days there to obtain residency. But they are and always will keep homes elsewhere never being full time residents. The other homes typically fall in 2 categories. The long term family home that is often sold once kids are out of college and on their own. The Shore house which they will never get rid of and will spend May through Mid-September. Several have other homes also due to much lower real estate prices than in CA

3. Retirees - sold everything else and moved to Florida. Travel regularly to visit friends/family and see the world if healthy enough.

Most of my close friends fall into #2. Most of my family members not living out West fall into #3

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2022 - 10:25am.

Just like other locations in the country, completely understand how FL works for many people, just not something that works for most of our family and friends.

I agree, it's great to have multiple homes for variety, and to indulge in creative financial planning for tax purposes, but, as people get older, and/or have health issues, and really can't travel as much as they once did to escape the heat and snow, etc. every year, in various locations, imo, you just can't beat keeping a home in San Diego for comfortable year round living.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 11:55am.

Undeniable

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 27, 2022 - 2:04pm.

I used to work for a Fort Lauderdale Based company and had several friends/co-workers based in the Boston and NJ areas.

I spent a lot of time near Boston and in Fort Lauderdale, kind of liked both areas for different reasons in different seasons.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 27, 2022 - 2:33pm.

for a fun crime novel read on the underbelly of florida scamminess, carl hiassen's skinny dip is pretty good.

florida sucks in so many ways.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 27, 2022 - 7:17pm.

I remember visiting co-workers homes in Fort Lauderdale,
These guys were just run of the mill engineering types but they owned nice newer homes right on the intracoastal with boat docks. They used to go diving and Ocean fishing pretty much every week end.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 8:37pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I used to work for a Fort Lauderdale Based company and had several friends/co-workers based in the Boston and NJ areas.

I spent a lot of time near Boston and in Fort Lauderdale, kind of liked both areas for different reasons in different seasons.

Citrix?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 28, 2022 - 7:20am.

No ECI

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 28, 2022 - 7:21am.

dup

Submitted by EconProf on July 30, 2022 - 5:50am.

Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

Submitted by Coronita on July 30, 2022 - 6:58am.

F50...

Bingo!

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 30, 2022 - 8:42am.

EconProf wrote:
As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021.

Not sure if your statistic is for City of San Diego or County of San Diego. But if it's for City of San Diego then the city is losing 0.35% per year. If for county it's losing 0.16% per year. Either way it's a pretty tiny decline.

EconProf wrote:

No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

Sea change? Less than 1% per year is a Sea Change? The fact that you extrapolate this tiny decline into the end of good living in San Diego is showing your prejudices and biases.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2022 - 9:56am.

EconProf wrote:
Some weeks ago I suggested that this thread, 1 1/2 years old and now 13 pages long, should die a natural death, and I would try to refrain from commenting further. But like a zombie, it keeps on coming back.
But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.
For the longest time, San Diego was gaining population while the crappier cities of Los Angeles and the Bay area were losing.
No longer. I suggest the factors causing this sea change are only just beginning. Implications for real estate values in San Diego vs. comparable cities of AZ, Texas, Utah, Nevada, Florida--you be the judge.

ZombieProf is back!

This thread is about more than you and SG it is about the constant stream of decades long prognostications about the demise of CA. And yes lots of people left SD during the pandemic. I hope most of thoise youngsters are enjoying life in their parents basement back in the Midwest. Because of them my wait at the coffee shop is an extra 3 minutes each morning

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 30, 2022 - 9:58am.

Coronita wrote:
F50...

Bingo!

There is no F'in BINGO in San Diego

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on July 30, 2022 - 10:14am.

EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego population

Submitted by Coronita on July 30, 2022 - 11:11am.

EconProf. Are your sources for the decline counting or not counting undocumented people in 2021....har har har.

Submitted by an on July 30, 2022 - 12:47pm.

FormerSanDiegan wrote:
EconProf wrote:

But I must correct a couple of commentators that suggest San Diego is not losing population. As reported in early May, it lost 11,183 people from July, 2020 to July 2021. You can google it for the various news sources.
That's population declining for the past two years.

I googled it and the first thing I found was the opposite of what you stated.
In God we trust. Others must bring data.

https://www.macrotrends.net/cities/23129...

San Diego population


Ouch

Submitted by EconProf on July 31, 2022 - 7:28am.

To an and others:
I googled "Is San Diego gaining or losing population?"
It reported a decline of 11,183 from the previous year, as of May, this year, and this was reported in the SDUT, LA Times, VOSD, etc. in May and March of this year. an quoted UN statistics which seemed to be a projection of previous years' trends, when population was clearly growing. You can trust in UN estimates if you want--I trust local sources.
As sdr suggests, we don't know if this is COVID inspired and thus temporary. Speaking of COVID, the work-from-home trend may be prompting the exodus from CA to less expensive locales. We also don't know if it includes illegals or not (footnote: one source said SD had the third highest number of homeless of US cities).
What is clear is that San Diego's competing cities in Arizona, Nevada, Texas, etc. are growing rapidly, as are their RE values. People (and companies) are voting with their feet.

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