Goodbye to San Diego

User Forum Topic
Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 5:48pm.

Inventory compared to 2019Inventory compared to 2019

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates. We also have different market dynamics at work different places. Boise and the like for example were ripe with investors and speculators. Around here we are still just over half of where we were in 2019. Inventory growth seems to be slowing here from my tracking but we’ll know better in another 4-6 weeks

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 7:25pm.

Crested 110 today in SG

Submitted by EconProf on July 11, 2022 - 8:38pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 8:58pm.

EconProf wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must've been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 12, 2022 - 9:06am.

sdrealtor wrote:

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates.

We will see I guess,
IMO 75 basis points would be the straw that broke the back of the economy.

FED moving way too fast IMO, I hope they know what they are doing else my theory will get tested LOL.

Submitted by EconProf on July 12, 2022 - 12:38pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
EconProf wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must've been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

Answer 1: Phoenix
Answer 2: California

Conclusion: People are voting with their feet.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 12, 2022 - 1:38pm.

They sure are! Here’s some fun actual data which EP seems to be allergic to using

New Listings Year over Year in June

Santa Clara -22%
San Diego - 12%

Phoenix

Phx inventoryPhx inventory

Inventory compared to 2019Inventory compared to 2019

Submitted by EconProf on July 13, 2022 - 3:00pm.

Thanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high--maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
I'll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge...meaning I overindulge in wine some night.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 13, 2022 - 4:20pm.

Phoenix was #1 in appreciation though just above SD. It was due to rampant speculation and investors. That was not the case here. That unwinding and there is still massive amounts of undeveloped land. Long term i think Phoenix will be fine it just got way ahead of itself. As for data there is tons of available and while i don’t have any for your area i can’t imagine there aren’t local stats published in your local fish wrap.

As for wine in 100+ degrees id suggest a crisp French sauv blanc or rose or perhaps an albarino. Stay away from the reds until Fall. I’m off to Napa and Sonoma in the early morning myself to enjoy all things good.

Cheers and feel free to stop by and comment as you like. This is a good thread for following the red state destination markets for those who can’t or don’t want to stay here

Hope all is well with the family. Cheers

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 13, 2022 - 5:07pm.

So now the bets are fed to raise 100 bases points in July meeting.

Wow I think they will find themselves reversing course very fast IMO ( well if my theory holds anyway LOL)

Submitted by flyer on July 13, 2022 - 11:51pm.

EP, as I've said before, the nice thing about your situation is that you did the SoCal thing longer than most people ever will, and now, I'm sure, you can probably live wherever you choose, anytime you choose, just as we can.

Along with many of our business interests, we have family and friends all over CA, and elsewhere, but the majority are in CA, including our kids, so, for us, continuing to live here most of the time makes the most sense.

I talk to people all of the time who, for numerous reasons, admit they are stuck wherever they are, and couldn't make a change--even if their lives depended on it--even some in CA. Others dreamed of living in CA, but weren't able to make their dreams a reality for many years, so they feel they missed out on living their dreams when they were young, which is really sad.

None of the above apply to you, so, you've already won, and even though SG is different, the fact that you have chosen where you want to be at this time in your life doesn't need to be defended, but, simply, enjoyed.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 10:08am.

Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450

Submitted by XBoxBoy on July 20, 2022 - 10:16am.

sdrealtor wrote:
Just found this in my daily real estate reading. Prices appear to be cratering and that’s without an inventory build up

Washington County, UT (St. George, fastest growing county per capita in US during pandemic): June Inventory, 1,175; Current Inventory, 1,203; Peak inventory from 7/2016 through current, 1,878 in 3/2019, pre-Covid average inventory, around 1,600
June Median Asking: $749,500; Current Median Asking: $685,000, peaked in March at $795,450

Still too early to tell. Current inventory is below pre-Covid average and asking prices are just meaningless. Not until we get closed prices that clearly show a trend will you have a cratering.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 11:37am.

Yes just like here but not as low in comparison. Last I checked we were around 40% of 2019 inventory here. Median Asking prices dropped 100k+ close to 15% in four months. Don’t ask, don’t get as my mom always told me. If that is accurate it is definitely cratering

Submitted by Pbranding on July 20, 2022 - 12:09pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Yes just like here but not as low in comparison. Last I checked we were around 40% of 2019 inventory here. Median Asking prices dropped 100k+ close to 15% in four months. Don’t ask, don’t get as my mom always told me. If that is accurate it is definitely cratering

Sdr, you had predicted 10% drop by 2023 do you still think that?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 20, 2022 - 4:56pm.

Yes the median which means in many places and in some places more. But I wouldn’t expect uniform drop. I bought a NP condo in 2010 for almost 70% off 2005 price. I sold six years later for almost the 05 price. If I’d held it’s now 60% higher than 05 price. My primary dropped at most 22% and is now more than 2x the 05 price. That kind of thing will happen again

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 25, 2022 - 7:26am.

Generally speaking population shifting from big eastern and northern cities to smaller sunbelt cities.

https://www.nbcsandiego.com/news/busines...

It’s as if boomers are retiring

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 25, 2022 - 8:53am.

My friends on the east coast often joke that its a state law in NY and NJ that you must move to Florida by your 65th birthday.

Submitted by an on July 25, 2022 - 9:39am.

It's very interesting to see that San Diego is actually on the list for people moving in. Considering how expensive it is here. How will this affect RE prices over the next few decades. Considering that we're still under building. Between boomers retiring and millenials reaching family formation age, which will drive home purchasing demand as they start having kids.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 26, 2022 - 7:54am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
My friends on the east coast often joke that its a state law in NY and NJ that you must move to Florida by your 65th birthday.

That’s a rule. Most of my friends have Florida homes and began shifting residency once kids were all out of high school. People been doing that forever

Submitted by flyer on July 26, 2022 - 6:31pm.

Agree, San Diego is definitely in high demand. Glad to see our city booming in every way.

Have lots of friends who have relocated here over the years. Many considered FL, the Carolinas, etc. but I encouraged them to think twice about those choices.

Having spent time in FL with friends and family, and having had some properties there, we know we'd never want to move there for many reasons. For those who only live there for the few nice times of the year, and can live with the heat, humidity, pests, and many other issues, not the least of which are hurricanes and tornadoes, there are many beautiful places to live, as well as other perks, but it would never work for us year round. We know lots of people who feel that way, but it does seem to work for some people, since that state is also booming.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 9:04am.

I grew up in NJ and have tons of friends/family with homes in Florida. They generally fall into 3 categories. This is a broad generalization but its hard for me to think of many exceptions

1. Working class - moved after high school/college (not a highly ranked one) to get to better weather/beach area. They work a regular job, have been there a long time and live there full time. They just deal with it and get out to travel when they can

2. Professional class - at some point in their professional career picked up a second home in Florida that was mostly a vacation home. Many have upgraded over the years. They spend more time there over the years and some upgrade while spending the more than 183 days there to obtain residency. But they are and always will keep homes elsewhere never being full time residents. The other homes typically fall in 2 categories. The long term family home that is often sold once kids are out of college and on their own. The Shore house which they will never get rid of and will spend May through Mid-September. Several have other homes also due to much lower real estate prices than in CA

3. Retirees - sold everything else and moved to Florida. Travel regularly to visit friends/family and see the world if healthy enough.

Most of my close friends fall into #2. Most of my family members not living out West fall into #3

Submitted by flyer on July 27, 2022 - 10:25am.

Just like other locations in the country, completely understand how FL works for many people, just not something that works for most of our family and friends.

I agree, it's great to have multiple homes for variety, and to indulge in creative financial planning for tax purposes, but, as people get older, and/or have health issues, and really can't travel as much as they once did to escape the heat and snow, etc. every year, in various locations, imo, you just can't beat keeping a home in San Diego for comfortable year round living.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 11:55am.

Undeniable

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 27, 2022 - 2:04pm.

I used to work for a Fort Lauderdale Based company and had several friends/co-workers based in the Boston and NJ areas.

I spent a lot of time near Boston and in Fort Lauderdale, kind of liked both areas for different reasons in different seasons.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 27, 2022 - 2:33pm.

for a fun crime novel read on the underbelly of florida scamminess, carl hiassen's skinny dip is pretty good.

florida sucks in so many ways.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 27, 2022 - 7:17pm.

I remember visiting co-workers homes in Fort Lauderdale,
These guys were just run of the mill engineering types but they owned nice newer homes right on the intracoastal with boat docks. They used to go diving and Ocean fishing pretty much every week end.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 27, 2022 - 8:37pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I used to work for a Fort Lauderdale Based company and had several friends/co-workers based in the Boston and NJ areas.

I spent a lot of time near Boston and in Fort Lauderdale, kind of liked both areas for different reasons in different seasons.

Citrix?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 28, 2022 - 7:20am.

No ECI

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 28, 2022 - 7:21am.

dup

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