San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis

You assume I lurk regularly. You make a lot of erroneous assumptions.

Ha! No, your true colors aren't taking EP to task for throwing CA under the bus. Your true colors are claiming "game, set match" with nothing to back it up, and being condescending and disputatious while you're doing it.

Again, an erroneous assumption (that I didn't see you'd mentioned Sacramento earlier). You say real estate is local. You bust that out frequently when somebody tries to use non-local data to make a point. Encinitas is not Escondido. But St. George is the same as Salt Lake City? Is real estate not local anymore?

A bold and quite possibly erroneous assumption. Yet stated as fact. Do you think nobody notices that? Or are you so high on your opinions that you think of them as facts?

The entire of the SG metro area is no bigger than Oceanside, but you'd still bet that the same thing is happening there as is happening in a much larger metro area (Salt Lake City) 300 miles away? And you're giving odds, too? You are certainly free to make that wager. But it doesn't fly to claim "game, set and match" based on zero data for St. George and nothing but leading indicators from a much larger metro area clear across the state.

Ok, if 4 months with no activity is "active."

Given that you're taking jabs at St. George without a single data point, I'd say the word you were looking for wasn't "divurge" but "converge."

You know, if you'd said, "there's a general trend of leading indicators going in the wrong direction in areas similar to St. George, so it's possible or maybe likely that St. George will see a downturn soon," that would be one thing. An argument could be made that it might even be reasonable, even though it goes against your beloved trope that "real estate is local." But, no, you come out with "game, set match." Again, your true colors. Claiming victories not won. Being condescending. Tooting your own horn and not hearing that your horn sounds off-key and raspy.

Well, you lasted for about two of my posts before you couldn't resist. Can't say I didn't see that coming!

EP. Agree family is everything. Of all that we have and do, none of it would have been as great had it not been shared by our very close family ties, which we still, and always will have.

You probably lived the CA lifestyle at level most only dream of longer that most ever will--so you've been there--done that. Now you've moved on to another lifestyle. Whether others like it or not doesn't matter. You're living the life YOU want to live--that's what matters.

More drivel. You are clutching at pearls. EP and his anti CA rhetoric is about people fleeing here and the red state destinations continuing to boom. What is happening in the 3 msa’s of UT is happening south of SG in vegas. And in Nashville and in Idaho and in Phoenix. He provides no data just platitudes which ironically seem to fly in the face of your leaning as well. Based upon your comments re dz it’s clear this was not a one time fly by. No one believes your bs that you’re not following closer than you want to admit. If you went to contribute something meaningful to our real estate discussion please have at it. The last couple years you did participate it was almost exclusively political ranting of which there are plenty of other places to do that. We are all big boys and girls here. If you prefer taking jabs feel free as well

Exactly though it would not surprise me to see him return or go someplace else in a few years if the shine wears off SG

You're unable to refute (or even address) any of my points with data. I guess there's really nothing for you to do but come back with "more drivel." Weak.

Either you don't know what that phrase means, or your comprehension is very poor.

From the Cambridge dictionary: "to behave as if you are very shocked, especially when you show more shock than you really feel in order to show that you think something is morally bad."

I'm not "very shocked." I'm not shocked at all. I'm not even surprised. You're making claims not based on data, and you're being a jackass. I'm pointing those things out. No shock involved.

You're making claims about St. George with zero data about St. George. And being a jackass doing it. That's what I'm saying, and so far you have been unable to refute any of that.

If by that you mean that I disagree with EP's opinions about California, I do (in general). What do my opinions of EP's opinions about California have to do with whether or not you're making data-supported arguments about the St. George real estate market?

I didn't say it was a one-time flyby. I said you made an erroneous assumption about me "lurking regularly." In any case, with a single visit to the forum it would be easy to see that dz got kicked off and that a couple days later you dug up an old thread and started being a jackass to someone else.

Ha! You probably really do believe that you speak for everyone. Get over yourself, man!

I think that pointing out that you make claims without data and that you are gratuitously noxious is contributing to the discussion.

-----

Man, too bad that whole "ignore" thing isn't working out for you.

I got rid of my ignore list a while back. Thanks for contributing. Look forward to more.

Well, if it makes any difference, our long term tenant from the Bay Area just gave us notice that he will be moving out in August/Sept. Says he plans on moving to a place where he can afford a decent house and work remotely.

I might suggest San Diego and/or Utah.

Some observations from the above comments. My purpose has been to use demographic trends and population flows to predict RE values. My hope is to share information that may be useful to other Piggs in their decision- making. sdr and some others disagree and have their own data points and claim, wrongly, that I've put out no facts.
sdr claims, correctly, that St. George/Washington City is the size of Oceanside. So what? Question: is Oceanside growing? I honestly don't know--but our area is thriving by every measure: unemployment, rents, RE prices, clean government, etc. We have a new area called Tech Ridge which is the incubator for many new firms. Our Utah Technical University grew 10% per year throughout COVID, while other university enrollments, on average, continue to shrink, perhaps because employers have learned to stay away from their "woke" agendas.
Final comment, I thought this whole subject had exhausted itself and was long gone. In fact, the last entry was February 28 of this year, and then it died a natural death. That is until sdr revived it months later with a criticism of our weather. That got the ball rolling again, including, quoting sdr "...As for this thread & EP this thread stays active & pops up regularly". Uh, no, unless you keep reviving it.

I have yet to see those facts just sweeping anecdotes. Can you share actual data? The kind with numbers. Would love to see it because the data Ive shared tells a different story. The story it tells is that every market surrounding St George is starting to shift dramatically in a way the coastal CA markets are not. And while Id be the first to admit that St George could still grow and prosper despite those markets deteriorating quickly they do a much better job of telling the story of an alleged CA exodus. They do so much better than little SG ever could and that story is the whole point of this exercise.

I dont doubt that your market has been growing over the last 2 years by those measures you mention despite you not sharing actual data points. That has been the case pretty much everywhere in the country until recently. UCSD has grown more than 10% during the pandemic! I would venture to guess that its growth is bigger than the total enrollment of that school you mentioned. Feel free to correct me but is this the school you mentioned? the one with 7200 students?

https://www.niche.com/colleges/utah-tech...

However, things out in the world are shifting fast. What the data sources Ive put out show are the first things available on the RE market and the trends are unmistakable.

As for the subject, here's what prods me to revisit it as I did several months ago. Its kinda funny but I added SG to the cities on my cell phone weather app when this all started. Every once in a while I scroll through them all and when I saw temps in SG well over 100 it made me chuckle and I posted about that. Then last week another poster forwarded me an article about the RE markets taking the hardest and fastest falls of which 3 of the top 10 are in Utah. That presented an opportunity to challege the unsubtantiated claims again

The whole alleged CA exodus is a phenomena that has always interested me. I've been here almost 30 years and it seems the media rolls out that story every year or two. Somehow we keep growing and booming economically in CA leading the way in our great nation despite all these premature calls. If we go back to the beginning where you admit selling out of SD over a decade ago and switching to AZ where you did not do as well as you would have had you just left it in SD. That has only amplified since this thread began. While you still try to claim we are falling apart here, you have pretty much admitted that the best thing you could have done with your SD investments would have been not to touch them. You are speaking from your red beating heart not your head. This thread presents another opportunity for me to follow and debunk that theory as i have been the last 2 decades.

"...alleged CA exodus..."
Your words.
Say no more. That's all we need to know about your "data".

I bring actual data from independent sources over and over again . You bring nothing but lazy rhetoric. The "alleged CA mass exodus" (I should have included MASS as it is the key part of that statement, my mistake) I write of is the case the media trots out every year or two that companies and people are leaving en masse. Like you they throw out a company or two but never mention the regular stream of world changing companies costantly being created and the influx of the best and brightest from all over the country and the world migrating here. Companies have been leaving here for a long time. Its an expensive place to live and work. It always has been. This is not a place to operate big comapnies, its a place to create new ideas and companies. Those inevitably get sold off and moved to lower cost locales which is how its pretty much always been in SD. People have been crawling back to other places from here because they couldnt make it for a very long time. This is not an easy place to make it and never was. If this was a basketball league it would be the NBA.

And of course no mention of the FACT that the best thing ou could have done is just keep all your SD real estate rather than taking them to other less profitable places.

Still waiting on that data. Would welcome and love to see it.

No abortions in Utah.

Clean gummint.

It's difficult for me not to be biased and think abortion trigger law states aren't largely populated by assholes.

One can imagine a scenario where EPs daughter in law has a difficult pregnancy, docs are scared of liability to do an abortion, and she is in mortal peril, or a grandchild in HS is date raped but is too embarrassed or fearful to file a police report and can't qualify for a rape exception abortion, and EP comes crawling back to CA to save a life or get rid of rapey spawn.

Sure, liberals are tolerable when you absolutely need a fetus removed, but the rest of the time, better to be around the maga faithful. Get in, get your fetus murdered, get out...

Although finances were not EP's primary reason for moving, I can definitely understand the lure of other locations for many, because, as mentioned, it's definitely true that CA is an expensive place to live.

Per recent stats, among those deciding to stay, and especially among younger people, about 60% are living paycheck-to-paycheck, even among high wage earners, with credit card debt higher than in many decades, and little hope of ever owning a home in the Golden State without family or other support.

Hopefully, those who can't afford to stay won't roll the dice in CA too long, allowing rent and other expenses to erode their earnings, because that doesn't bode well for an early, or stable retirement.

Data is clear and has long been the trend. Those that leave are predominately lower income than those arriving here.

One interesting thing I’m starting to read about is the potential for large companies to come to CA to get away from abortion bans and crazy red state politics. Newsom is already rolling out the welcome mat

Its inevitable we'll see one soon if only to make a political statement much like Musk did moving hdqtrs to TX while expanding OPS in CA

Yes, we've seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they've decided to make a change.

As natives, we're definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we're also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.

I hate it here but I'm pretty sure I'd hate it way more everywhere else. So, I guess that means I like it here.

Good attitude. While it may or may not be the case with EP, behind their claims of liberal politics almost every case Ive seen of people leaving was really financial. People that havent saved properly to retire or that cant keep up with the COL here. There is no shame in that, When we all came to CA everyone of us knew what we were getting ourselves into. Those who were born here know even moreso what we all sign up for living here. Most of the political rantings from my experience is sour grapes

LOL

dup

There are a lot of places in CA I wouldn't want to live either--so I understand that--but if you just don't care for CA in general, I'd definitely try to find a place that has more of what appeals to you. Life is too short to live in a place you hate.

There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.

Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.

I appreciate EP's continued input.

Totally agree, Hobie. I have always felt that everyone should do what's best for their particular situation. There is no one-size-fits-all in life.

Wherever you go, there you are.

That is so true. Probably why we're happy exactly where we are.

Absolutely this is a tough place for someone just starting out. Having a family makes it even tougher. Having grown up in a nice home and having high expectations even tougher in an area like this where almost everyone makes compromises in their housing at all ages and income levels. People leaving for those reasons are making decisions in the best interest of their families. Being financially responsible is very important to having stability in one’s life and home

Rent a hotel in a cheap area for a few months, the collapse is nigh. Wondering why there was the impulse to pay over ask? Greed's impulse to boost neighboring comps to facilitate a pathological appetite for more leverage.

Typically takes longer than you think for declines to come. Gonna take more than a few months

It's like a super slow motion car wreck. Or maybe slo motion and nothing happens

IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.