Goodbye to San Diego

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Submitted by EconProf on February 22, 2021 - 2:26am

After 45 years in San Diego as teacher, real estate investor, and contractor we are leaving. Apparently, so are a lot of other people. The cost of living, and especially the housing cost difference is one of the many reasons, and here are the specifics:
1. Our brand new custom-designed house will cost about 1/3 the price we are getting for our current house and be 10% larger, all on one level.
2. Our HOA will fall from $495/month to about $100. For that HOA we will be a two-block walk from a clubhouse with an exercise room, two pools (one summer, one winter), tennis courts, pickleball courts, etc., etc.
3. Our property taxes will fall from $16,500 per year to about $3000.
4. Monthly utility costs will be vastly lower.

Piggs are invited to guess our destination.

Submitted by EconProf on June 27, 2022 - 7:12pm.

"...alleged CA exodus..."
Your words.
Say no more. That's all we need to know about your "data".

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 27, 2022 - 7:44pm.

I bring actual data from independent sources over and over again . You bring nothing but lazy rhetoric. The "alleged CA mass exodus" (I should have included MASS as it is the key part of that statement, my mistake) I write of is the case the media trots out every year or two that companies and people are leaving en masse. Like you they throw out a company or two but never mention the regular stream of world changing companies costantly being created and the influx of the best and brightest from all over the country and the world migrating here. Companies have been leaving here for a long time. Its an expensive place to live and work. It always has been. This is not a place to operate big comapnies, its a place to create new ideas and companies. Those inevitably get sold off and moved to lower cost locales which is how its pretty much always been in SD. People have been crawling back to other places from here because they couldnt make it for a very long time. This is not an easy place to make it and never was. If this was a basketball league it would be the NBA.

And of course no mention of the FACT that the best thing ou could have done is just keep all your SD real estate rather than taking them to other less profitable places.

Still waiting on that data. Would welcome and love to see it.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 28, 2022 - 1:27pm.

No abortions in Utah.

Clean gummint.

It's difficult for me not to be biased and think abortion trigger law states aren't largely populated by assholes.

One can imagine a scenario where EPs daughter in law has a difficult pregnancy, docs are scared of liability to do an abortion, and she is in mortal peril, or a grandchild in HS is date raped but is too embarrassed or fearful to file a police report and can't qualify for a rape exception abortion, and EP comes crawling back to CA to save a life or get rid of rapey spawn.

Sure, liberals are tolerable when you absolutely need a fetus removed, but the rest of the time, better to be around the maga faithful. Get in, get your fetus murdered, get out...

Submitted by flyer on June 28, 2022 - 3:36pm.

Although finances were not EP's primary reason for moving, I can definitely understand the lure of other locations for many, because, as mentioned, it's definitely true that CA is an expensive place to live.

Per recent stats, among those deciding to stay, and especially among younger people, about 60% are living paycheck-to-paycheck, even among high wage earners, with credit card debt higher than in many decades, and little hope of ever owning a home in the Golden State without family or other support.

Hopefully, those who can't afford to stay won't roll the dice in CA too long, allowing rent and other expenses to erode their earnings, because that doesn't bode well for an early, or stable retirement.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 28, 2022 - 4:26pm.

Data is clear and has long been the trend. Those that leave are predominately lower income than those arriving here.

One interesting thing I’m starting to read about is the potential for large companies to come to CA to get away from abortion bans and crazy red state politics. Newsom is already rolling out the welcome mat

Its inevitable we'll see one soon if only to make a political statement much like Musk did moving hdqtrs to TX while expanding OPS in CA

Submitted by flyer on June 29, 2022 - 9:52am.

Yes, we've seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they've decided to make a change.

As natives, we're definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we're also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 29, 2022 - 11:19am.

I hate it here but I'm pretty sure I'd hate it way more everywhere else. So, I guess that means I like it here.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 29, 2022 - 1:00pm.

flyer wrote:
Yes, we've seen that trend in the many years our families have been in CA, and it seems to have escalated in recent years among various income groups. The evolution of CA on many levels may have caught some people off guard, especially when it comes to the extreme escalation in the cost of housing for themselves and for their children. Many do not want to be forever renters, or to live communally with their families for the rest of their lives, so they've decided to make a change.

As natives, we're definitely not fans of everything that is going on in CA, but we're also not about to let any negative aspects, as we perceive them, prevent us from enjoying and thriving in the state we and our families plan to continue to call home for a very long time.

Good attitude. While it may or may not be the case with EP, behind their claims of liberal politics almost every case Ive seen of people leaving was really financial. People that havent saved properly to retire or that cant keep up with the COL here. There is no shame in that, When we all came to CA everyone of us knew what we were getting ourselves into. Those who were born here know even moreso what we all sign up for living here. Most of the political rantings from my experience is sour grapes

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 29, 2022 - 2:00pm.

scaredyclassic wrote:
I hate it here but I'm pretty sure I'd hate it way more everywhere else. So, I guess that means I like it here.

LOL

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 29, 2022 - 2:33pm.

dup

Submitted by flyer on June 29, 2022 - 4:33pm.

There are a lot of places in CA I wouldn't want to live either--so I understand that--but if you just don't care for CA in general, I'd definitely try to find a place that has more of what appeals to you. Life is too short to live in a place you hate.

Submitted by Hobie on June 29, 2022 - 4:41pm.

There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.

Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.

I appreciate EP's continued input.

Submitted by flyer on June 29, 2022 - 4:44pm.

Totally agree, Hobie. I have always felt that everyone should do what's best for their particular situation. There is no one-size-fits-all in life.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 29, 2022 - 4:50pm.

Wherever you go, there you are.

Submitted by flyer on June 29, 2022 - 5:01pm.

That is so true. Probably why we're happy exactly where we are.

Submitted by sdrealtor on June 29, 2022 - 9:25pm.

Hobie wrote:
There are a lot of new grads trying to get started with a family. Even with dual incomes the high cost of housing in SD is tough for them to get started.

Alternatives out of state are looking good as they can swing a house on one income so the other spouse can be a stay at home parent.

I appreciate EP's continued input.

Absolutely this is a tough place for someone just starting out. Having a family makes it even tougher. Having grown up in a nice home and having high expectations even tougher in an area like this where almost everyone makes compromises in their housing at all ages and income levels. People leaving for those reasons are making decisions in the best interest of their families. Being financially responsible is very important to having stability in one’s life and home

Submitted by anxvariety on July 11, 2022 - 8:50am.

Rent a hotel in a cheap area for a few months, the collapse is nigh. Wondering why there was the impulse to pay over ask? Greed's impulse to boost neighboring comps to facilitate a pathological appetite for more leverage.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 1:14pm.

Typically takes longer than you think for declines to come. Gonna take more than a few months

Submitted by scaredyclassic on July 11, 2022 - 2:36pm.

It's like a super slow motion car wreck. Or maybe slo motion and nothing happens

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 11, 2022 - 4:15pm.

IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.

Submitted by an on July 11, 2022 - 4:23pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
IMO FED raises 75 points in July, the whole shebang goes.

LOL I guess well see if my theory holds that TPTB will reverse course in a heartbeat once the whole thing starts falling apart.


https://www.macrotrends.net/2015/fed-fun... rate goes up much slower than it coming down. If it all fall apart in a few months, I can see we'll be back to near 0% by this time next year.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 5:48pm.

Inventory compared to 2019

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates. We also have different market dynamics at work different places. Boise and the like for example were ripe with investors and speculators. Around here we are still just over half of where we were in 2019. Inventory growth seems to be slowing here from my tracking but we’ll know better in another 4-6 weeks

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 7:25pm.

Crested 110 today in SG

Submitted by EconProf on July 11, 2022 - 8:38pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 11, 2022 - 8:58pm.

EconProf wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must've been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on July 12, 2022 - 9:06am.

sdrealtor wrote:

The market is expecting 50-75 basis points and it’s largely baked into rates.

We will see I guess,
IMO 75 basis points would be the straw that broke the back of the economy.

FED moving way too fast IMO, I hope they know what they are doing else my theory will get tested LOL.

Submitted by EconProf on July 12, 2022 - 12:38pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
EconProf wrote:
sdrealtor wrote:
Crested 110 today in SG

sdr: It was also 109 degrees in America's fastest growing big city.
Hmmm...what city would that be?
And where are all those people coming from?

Guess my weather service was off a degree or two. Must've been a nice respite. Did you break out your down jackets?

Answer 1: Phoenix
Answer 2: California

Conclusion: People are voting with their feet.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 12, 2022 - 1:38pm.

They sure are! Here’s some fun actual data which EP seems to be allergic to using

New Listings Year over Year in June

Santa Clara -22%
San Diego - 12%

Phoenix

Phx inventory

Inventory compared to 2019

Submitted by EconProf on July 13, 2022 - 3:00pm.

Thanks for the data sdr, I will concede that you indeed have access to more data than I do.
Not sure what an inventory increase says about future appreciation or population growth vs. decline though. It could be the exploding population of Phoenix simply means more people are younger and moving around while San Diegans are more settled in their abode.
I do recall seeing several sources claiming Phoenix appreciation rates are very high--maybe you can enlighten us on that data.
After that, perhaps it is time to let this thread die a natural death. Its over a year and a half old, nine pages long, and all sides have presented their data.
For the record, I am fully aware of the charms of San Diego, and not just the weather. I was blessed financially by the RE appreciation rates, but I also worked my butt off prepping vacancies for the next tenant, some of whom had a big-screen TV way before my family.
I'll abstain from further commenting unless I really feel the urge...meaning I overindulge in wine some night.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 13, 2022 - 4:20pm.

Phoenix was #1 in appreciation though just above SD. It was due to rampant speculation and investors. That was not the case here. That unwinding and there is still massive amounts of undeveloped land. Long term i think Phoenix will be fine it just got way ahead of itself. As for data there is tons of available and while i don’t have any for your area i can’t imagine there aren’t local stats published in your local fish wrap.

As for wine in 100+ degrees id suggest a crisp French sauv blanc or rose or perhaps an albarino. Stay away from the reds until Fall. I’m off to Napa and Sonoma in the early morning myself to enjoy all things good.

Cheers and feel free to stop by and comment as you like. This is a good thread for following the red state destination markets for those who can’t or don’t want to stay here

Hope all is well with the family. Cheers

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