Fun, or Lack Thereof, With the Case-Shiller Index

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 1, 2009 - 9:57am

Nothing too exciting happened in the latest release of the Case-Shiller San Diego home price index. Unless the lack of a noticable decline qualifies as exciting. Which I suppose it kind of does, given the context.

The aggregate price index for San Diego County declined a mere .1 percent between March and April, the latest month measured. The stabilization is no big surprise considering the strength in other price measures and the run on inventory currently underway.

continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by peterb on July 1, 2009 - 11:18am.

With a narrow enough data set, anything can be proven. I'd like to see the actual volume of C-S data points. It's small enough in normal markets, given their methodology. But right now I'd guess their data set may be very small.

Submitted by UCGal on July 1, 2009 - 12:20pm.

If I'm reading the charts right... the low end is still falling. The middle and upper end are falling, but not as fast. Ah- the 2nd derivitive green shoot.

If it's declining at a slower rate - is it still declining? IMO yes. But I'm sure it will be spun that this is a sign the market is going up.

Submitted by jpinpb on July 1, 2009 - 12:32pm.

People are trying to find anything glimmer of positive signs. But let's look everything the government has done to prop up this market over the past, I don't know, let's say 10 months or so, since Sept. '08 and the banking crisis. How much money have we printed and thrown at it total? How many moratoria have we allowed? How much data has been manipulated or "glitched"?

So even w/all that, the best we can do is the price declined .1% in one month during the spring shopping season?

Well, break out the champagne and celebrate! Good times are here again!

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 1, 2009 - 2:57pm.

Similarly people are trying to find any glimmer of negativity to confirm their beliefs. Isnt it always this way. Bulls and Bear ya know...

Submitted by jpinpb on July 1, 2009 - 3:51pm.

Glimmer of negativity?

Submitted by feraina on July 1, 2009 - 10:03pm.

I'm puzzled. How can the aggregate be decaying slower than all three price categories? Isn't the aggregate a weighted average of the other three?

Submitted by aeromike on July 2, 2009 - 6:13am.

GLIMMER OF NEGATIVITY ! ?
The originator of this comment may wish to consider how ludicrous this observation sounds considering that indexes have been plunging and the macro-economic fundamentals are still dismal.

Submitted by 4plexowner on July 2, 2009 - 7:15am.

$13 trillion thrown at the economy and the best we can do is slow down the decline

throw me into the negativity camp (and Lord save us from all these Pollyannas)

Submitted by peterb on July 2, 2009 - 8:46am.

One foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel, would be a more accurate picture of RE at this time. If long rates continue to climb, the demand side of the equation will be hard hit.

Submitted by sdrealtor on July 2, 2009 - 9:05am.

Cmon guys and gals! It was said tongue firmly in cheek.

Submitted by CA renter on July 2, 2009 - 11:13pm.

jpinpb wrote:
People are trying to find anything glimmer of positive signs. But let's look everything the government has done to prop up this market over the past, I don't know, let's say 10 months or so, since Sept. '08 and the banking crisis. How much money have we printed and thrown at it total? How many moratoria have we allowed? How much data has been manipulated or "glitched"?

So even w/all that, the best we can do is the price declined .1% in one month during the spring shopping season?

Well, break out the champagne and celebrate! Good times are here again!

Well said, jp! :)

Submitted by CricketOnTheHearth on July 7, 2009 - 12:18pm.

"Glimmer of Negativity" is going to have to be one of those Pigg in-joke phrases from now on.

I like the "one foot in the grave and the other on a banana peel" bon mot too. Of course when the MSM pundits (especially, oh especially Crazy Jim Cramer) start using that second phrase, we'll know it's time to buy.

Submitted by San Diego Remodeling on July 30, 2009 - 8:35pm.

So many charts. Great info again.
www.remodelingsd.com

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