Foreclosure ban end.

User Forum Topic
Submitted by barnaby33 on January 9, 2021 - 10:37am

Link to tv segment. I just saw this and am curious about the thoughts of the peanut gallery. Is this the beginning of a tsunami, or a large nothing burger? I realize if you are a landlord with non-paying tenants it doesn't feel like a nothing burger, but statistically will this have a real effect?
Josh

Submitted by Coronita on January 9, 2021 - 11:54am.

Doubt it in SD.

Submitted by svelte on January 9, 2021 - 7:58pm.

taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

"While delinquencies are still elevated, especially those over 90 days, Black Knight's "first look" at November data notes a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The national delinquency rate dropped from 6.44 percent in October to 6.33 percent, a -1.75 percent change. It remains 79.20 percent higher year-over-year. The rate has fallen 1.5 percentage points from its peak of 7.8 percent in May but remains a full three percentage points (+93 percent) above pre-pandemic levels"

While not good that it went up this year, those numbers don't strike me as dire.

"The foreclosure moratoriums put in place at the beginning of the pandemic have kept many negative loan performance metrics at low levels. The foreclosure inventory, loans in process of foreclosure, is down by 2,000 loans since October and 72,000 since the previous November."

Given that house values are still very high, if people get behind they can always sell.

Submitted by pluto on January 10, 2021 - 6:41pm.

svelte wrote:
taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

The statistic isn't as high because it excludes those in forbearance, i.e. people also not paying their mortgage.

Also, on a side note is Rich ok? Haven't seen anything posted in the forum for a while.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2021 - 7:00pm.

Howdy - All is well, thanks... just been super busy. I hope to have the Dec 20 stats up this week.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 10, 2021 - 10:16pm.

barnaby33 wrote:
Link to tv segment. I just saw this and am curious about the thoughts of the peanut gallery. Is this the beginning of a tsunami, or a large nothing burger? I realize if you are a landlord with non-paying tenants it doesn't feel like a nothing burger, but statistically will this have a real effect?
Josh

Speaking for SD which is what we deal with here a nothing burger with substandard in n out fries

Submitted by svelte on January 11, 2021 - 9:50am.

pluto wrote:
svelte wrote:
taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

The statistic isn't as high because it excludes those in forbearance, i.e. people also not paying their mortgage.

I don't see that as a big issue either as those folks will be able to make up those payments over time:

"Forbearance doesn’t mean your payments are forgiven or erased. You are still required to repay any missed or reduced payments in the future, which in most cases may be repaid over time. At the end of the forbearance, your servicer will contact you about how the missed payments will be repaid. There may be different programs available."

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavi...

And even if the increased monthly payments are too high, housing values are still high so they can still sell and get out OK in many cases.

Submitted by pluto on January 12, 2021 - 10:24pm.

Great to know your ok Rich!

If, the people cant pay now and want/need forbearance what means they can pay when forbearance ends? There will be pressure to sell the home. I think it's likely that will increase inventory, and favor buyers after the forbearance "dust" settles. Then motivated home owners will start flinging comp bombs.

I think the financial pause is just that a pause. Home prices are where they at because there are fewer homes for sale, and some people have to move. Home prices can only be supported by the buyer pool.

San Diego's buyer pool is affluent and usually financially educated. When they tour a home and see a model match for 30k less, they first ask what's wrong with the other home? When the answer is nothing, it becomes a will of motivation then a line on where a short sale will be.

Submitted by Coronita on January 13, 2021 - 1:25am.

pluto wrote:

If, the people cant pay now and want/need forbearance what means they can pay when forbearance ends? There will be pressure to sell the home. I think it's likely that will increase inventory, and favor buyers after the forbearance "dust" settles. Then motivated home owners will start flinging comp bombs.

I think the financial pause is just that a pause. Home prices are where they at because there are fewer homes for sale, and some people have to move. Home prices can only be supported by the buyer pool.

San Diego's buyer pool is affluent and usually financially educated. When they tour a home and see a model match for 30k less, they first ask what's wrong with the other home? When the answer is nothing, it becomes a will of motivation then a line on where a short sale will be.

I'm assuming we can exclude most tech and biotech workers, since they seem to be doing well if not better and are an outlier.

Beyond that, what are the numbers looking like? Has anyone noticed if we've seen any pickup of migration from people North of us to down here, now that those workers are most likely working remotely indefinitely? Can't say for sure, but I thought I've seen a few folks recently relocate down here from Bay Area because they think home prices here are cheap(er) and now they can work remotely from here indefinitely...

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2021 - 11:33am.

Anecdotally speaking with fellow agents up my way there is a definite and substantial uptick in arrivals from Bay Area/LA Area underway.

Im gonna update the NC coastal monitor now. I lost interest in Urban Metro Suburban monitor as it was so uneventful. I may add one for my friends in Mira Mesa:)

Submitted by barnaby33 on January 19, 2021 - 3:08pm.

I alone have two Google re-pats. They left to take jobs with Google, but have since returned while keeping their jobs.
Josh

Submitted by Escoguy on January 19, 2021 - 4:58pm.

Any thoughts in North County inland are appreciated: 92127/92078/92027

Asking prices are ticking up steadily 30-50K over just a few months ago is not unusual for 4 BR SFH. What was 800-820K in Oct is now asking 850K.

Some larger inland are hitting the 1.2M mark as well if there is a pool and 3500+ sf.

I sometimes wonder if I'm dreaming all this.

Oh, well, sold some bitcoin to get part of the downpayment ready for the next one.
It's almost not worth mentioning.

Did I hear about a 15K tax credit for first time buyers being discussed?

I can see pros and cons on that one.

Submitted by Coronita on January 19, 2021 - 11:47pm.

Ah yes...looks like it's raining in San Diego real estate....

Dude just got pardoned too!!! LOL.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 12:00am.

Free Wayne!

Submitted by svelte on January 20, 2021 - 11:29am.

Into each life a Lil Wayne must fall.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:38pm.

Escoguy wrote:
Any thoughts in North County inland are appreciated: 92127/92078/92027

Asking prices are ticking up steadily 30-50K over just a few months ago is not unusual for 4 BR SFH. What was 800-820K in Oct is now asking 850K.

Some larger inland are hitting the 1.2M mark as well if there is a pool and 3500+ sf.

I sometimes wonder if I'm dreaming all this.

Oh, well, sold some bitcoin to get part of the downpayment ready for the next one.
It's almost not worth mentioning.

Did I hear about a 15K tax credit for first time buyers being discussed?

I can see pros and cons on that one.

I think those are 3 very different markets. I think 92127 will behave more like the coast with 92078 a step behind. Homes that were 1.1ish 18 months ago are pushing 1.3 here now.

Not as familiar with 92027 without doing more research. Id expect it to lag the others as it usually does but all boats are rising

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 4, 2021 - 11:46am.

Delinquencies are dropping like a rock. March saw the biggest drop in 11 years, and the second-largest monthly improvement ever recorded. It dropped from 6.0% in February to 5.02% in March. From Black Knight's Mortgage Monitor Report:

"Not only did March see the largest single-month improvement in delinquencies in 11 years, but all indications suggest more is yet to come,” said Graboske. “Several factors contributed to particularly strong mortgage performance in March, including the distribution of 159 million stimulus payments totaling more than $376 billion, broader economic improvement leading to nearly a million new jobs and 1.2 million forbearance plans reviewed for extension or removal, resulting in an 11% decline in plan volumes in the last 30 days. As many early forbearance plan adopters shifted to post-forbearance waterfalls to get back to performing on their mortgage payments, the inflow has continued to steadily improve as well. And, of the 7.1 million homeowners who have been in COVID-19 forbearance at one point or another, performance among those who have left plans has generally been strong. (Forbearance dropped to 2.23 million homeowners).

Submitted by Coronita on May 4, 2021 - 11:59am.

Tsunami of foreclosures...nope.....

More like a tsunami of buyers camping out in hotels from the bay area and other high cost areas waiting for a SFH to come on the market, and then be one of 30-50+ bidders on that one house.....

The only sad thing is. Maybe people locally might have been priced out by these buyers.

Those housing market crash in SD predictions as a result of covid? Turned to be 180 degrees the opposite.

San Diego Real Estate:

Submitted by gzz on May 4, 2021 - 12:00pm.

Delinquencies are dropping like a rock.

It was always stupid to count COVID forbearance as delinquency, at least in the headline delinquency rate.

If I wanted to track this closely, I'd exclude forbearance requests from employed people with high credit.

A bunch of people ignorantly or accidentally signed up for COVID forbearance, and banks encouraged it. It reduced prepayment risk when its safe credit clients signed up, and the US Gov was leaning on Chase and WFC to pump up forbearance signups.

In retrospect, the program was successful, and the stimulus package the US passed during COVID was well designed compared to Europe and Japan.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 4, 2021 - 12:36pm.

Friend was furloughed by Scripps for a month and reduced hours for a few. Took 3 month forebearance on her home and her car. Already refinanced into mortgage over 1/2% lower. Just sold car for about what she paid last year and is buying another. Didnt even leave a scratch on her life

Submitted by spdrun on May 5, 2021 - 10:54am.

Eviction moratorium was lifted by a Fed judge.

Submitted by profhoff on May 5, 2021 - 1:09pm.

spdrun wrote:
Eviction moratorium was lifted by a Fed judge.

A Trump judge.

Submitted by temeculaguy on May 6, 2021 - 12:18am.

I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future. The invisible hand has been stymied and nothing good ever comes from that, unless inflation counteracts it. Anecdotal case in point, my son and his wife have lived with me rent free through the pandemic and have a six figure down payment. Yes they are mid to late 20 somethings with degrees and a low six figure combined income and they cannot buy a starter home in Temecula. The last time this happened it was 2006 and we all know how that turned out. Haircuts are coming, the two freshly minted teachers rule is back in play, when two freshly minted teachers cannot buy a condo the bubble bursts, exhurbs get it first and gt it the worst, I smell Deja Vu! I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls, already got a fake lawn so I'm staying put but I'll pick up a rental or two in the next crash, your results may vary. But thee current valuations are not sustainable.

The house I paid 270 for at the bottom in 2008 is worth 700-800, you have got to be kidding me, 500 maybe.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 6, 2021 - 8:09am.

Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now "NOTHING" is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.

But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.

1) We are still way underbuilt so that may keep this going a few more years.

2) I think inflation will have a much larger roll to play this time so "If" they decide to end the stimulus sugar high, the crash will not be as large as last time.

I still think the last time was a once in a life time event.

One more #
3) The PTB are trying to pass a 15-25K first time buyer grant (yet more sugar LOL), and the loans being made now are not (yet) nearly as crazy as last time (still got a few years IMO).

Submitted by svelte on May 6, 2021 - 7:44am.

temeculaguy wrote:
I will happily call it a bubble right now. Mark my words as I will link this post in the future... Haircuts are coming

This has to be true. Even Zillow is not keeping up with the price increases in my area. I am totally astounded by the April and May sales prices.

I've been hearing people compare 2021 to the start of the roaring 1920s that also happened right after a pandemic. I'm not buying it. There were different forces at play in the 1920s. First, prices actually dropped by double-digits on things like automobiles. Second, returning WW1 soldiers are what made the 1920s roar. We don't have a similar situation this time.

In the 2008 downturn, I was only able to position myself to weather the storm, not profit from it significantly. I'm in a different position now. I'm trying to get in a position to pounce when the bottom hits. Could I be wrong, could inflation take off and bail new home buyers out? It could happen, but I tend to think the inflation we are seeing right now is due to disrupted supply chains and will go away in 2022.

temeculaguy wrote:

I like my house, just signed contracts for solar and tesla powerwalls

This must mean you bought Tesla solar also as I've heard Tesla has announced only Tesla solar buyers can buy powerwalls now.

Two words of caution here:
1) If your roof is 20+ years old, I *strongly* recommend you replace the roof at the same time the solar panels are installed. (if you have a tile roof, replace the underlayment. If you have a shingle roof, replace the shingles).

Why? Because your roof will likely start to leak in the next few years and when you need to re-roof, solar companies charge $150 per panel AND UP to remove them for the roof work and reinstall them. You do the math, it adds up quick!

I recommend the re-roof and solar install at the same time because of the chicken-and-egg thing: If roofers go first then solar, roofers could claim the solar installers voided your roof warranty. And if you do it the other way around (solar then roof) and use fly-by-nighters to remove/reinstall solar panels, then that will void your solar warranty. If you have both things done at the same time, those folks can talk to each other and work out how they each can do their work and not void the other's warranty.

2) I have been reading reports where Tesla is upping costs by $10K+ on contracts that were already signed but not installed yet. Beware!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/04/29/busin...

temeculaguy wrote:

But these current valuations are not sustainable.

I was reading off some recent sales prices in our area to my wife last night and finished by saying "so our house is now worth $x". Without hesitating she said "for now". These values have to be temporary. Prices will have to fall back to earth. I'm sorry that folks are going to get hurt...I wish more people would learn from the past. I guess the "buy now or be priced out forever" mantra is very powerful.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 6, 2021 - 8:58am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now "NOTHING" is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.

But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.

1) We are still way underbuilt so that may keep this going a few more years.

2) I think inflation will have a much larger roll to play this time so "If" they decide to end the stimulus sugar high, the crash will not be as large as last time.

I still think the last time was a once in a life time event.

One more #
3) The PTB are trying to pass a 15-25K first time buyer grant (yet more sugar LOL), and the loans being made now are not (yet) nearly as crazy as last time (still got a few years IMO).

There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. Poorer people, including teachers, will rent. Money will only flow upward. wages will not keep pace with inflation, making wage earners poorer. This is the trend and it will continue. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.

Submitted by svelte on May 6, 2021 - 10:01am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Good to see you post again TG,
Yea I agree sort of but right now "NOTHING" is allowed to crash. I kind of think as soon as (or if) the stimulus sugar high ends things may crash.

But I do see two things that will give this a few more years yet to run IMO.

There will be no crash in the 2020s. Financing is normal. The next crash may not be in my lifetime. It will probably be the result of some unexpected catastrophe, perhaps environmental.

Every crash is unique and a once-in-a-lifetime event. But if you look back over the last 100 years, about every decade something has went south.

Oil prices in the 70s. Black Monday in 1987. Dot Com in 2000. Housing Bubble in 2008.

We are due a financial calamity.

It may not be in 2021 - shoveler may be right they may keep juicing this thing along for a year or two.

But the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall was made for a reason.

Submitted by sdrealtor on May 6, 2021 - 10:35am.

Bubbles burst they don't deflate. So much to disagree with but first is TG's kid can afford a starter home. Maybe they are frustrated they can't find what they want due to limited supply. Maybe they are being influenced by a father who has his feelings based upon his life experience. But sure as when there are too many bunnies the coyote population will surge to return balance, those kids could afford to buy a starter house in Temecula

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Temecula/44862...

More after my workout

Submitted by an on May 6, 2021 - 10:25am.

svelte wrote:

Every crash is unique and a once-in-a-lifetime event. But if you look back over the last 100 years, about every decade something has went south.

Oil prices in the 70s. Black Monday in 1987. Dot Com in 2000. Housing Bubble in 2008.

We are due a financial calamity.

It may not be in 2021 - shoveler may be right they may keep juicing this thing along for a year or two.

But the saying the bigger they are the harder they fall was made for a reason.


Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.

We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don't think it'll stop at $10T either. So, IMHO, we'll probably see something along the line of late 70s again. If we can get $15/hr minimum wage, that'll put a floor in and I'm seeing salary for engineers in San Diego going up high single digit to low double digits now compare to last year.

Submitted by svelte on May 6, 2021 - 11:03am.

an wrote:

Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.

The stock market crashed in the 70s.

December 1972 SP500December 1972 SP500

an wrote:

We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don't think it'll stop at $10T either.

Perhaps, but I'm not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 6, 2021 - 11:57am.

svelte wrote:
an wrote:

Yes, every crash is different. Not every crash cause everything to crash. Oil prices in the 70s caused massive inflation and housing went up almost 10x.

The stock market crashed in the 70s.

December 1972 SP500December 1972 SP500

an wrote:

We have never ever before talk about up to $10T in stimulus. I don't think it'll stop at $10T either.

Perhaps, but I'm not convinced everything that Biden has proposed will actually be passed.

things must be frothy if scaredy is contemplating taking on more debt. My mortgage is tiny and refinanced at 2.5, but it makes perfect sense to me to take a recent offer of 300K extra cash out, refi the whole mess at 30 years at 2.625%, and dollar cost average the proceeds into reits, gold and international stocks over the next 36 months.

sure seems likely from my distorted vantage point now that those assets will be more than 26.25% higher 10 years from now, or really any asset will be higher 10 years from now. it is almost hard to visualize a longlasting crash. even I, a pessimist that bums out the other pessimists, didn't sell when the pandemic hit, just kept buying. I was like, eh, nothings real anyway. i capitulate to insanity.

not that I'll actually do it, but it seems like a logical thing to do. which means it's probably insane. the more likely thing I'll do is pay off my stupid mortgage. stupid.

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