Foreclosure ban end.

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Submitted by barnaby33 on January 9, 2021 - 10:37am

Link to tv segment. I just saw this and am curious about the thoughts of the peanut gallery. Is this the beginning of a tsunami, or a large nothing burger? I realize if you are a landlord with non-paying tenants it doesn't feel like a nothing burger, but statistically will this have a real effect?
Josh

Submitted by Coronita on January 9, 2021 - 11:54am.

Doubt it in SD.

Submitted by svelte on January 9, 2021 - 7:58pm.

taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

"While delinquencies are still elevated, especially those over 90 days, Black Knight's "first look" at November data notes a sixth consecutive monthly decline. The national delinquency rate dropped from 6.44 percent in October to 6.33 percent, a -1.75 percent change. It remains 79.20 percent higher year-over-year. The rate has fallen 1.5 percentage points from its peak of 7.8 percent in May but remains a full three percentage points (+93 percent) above pre-pandemic levels"

While not good that it went up this year, those numbers don't strike me as dire.

"The foreclosure moratoriums put in place at the beginning of the pandemic have kept many negative loan performance metrics at low levels. The foreclosure inventory, loans in process of foreclosure, is down by 2,000 loans since October and 72,000 since the previous November."

Given that house values are still very high, if people get behind they can always sell.

Submitted by pluto on January 10, 2021 - 6:41pm.

svelte wrote:
taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

The statistic isn't as high because it excludes those in forbearance, i.e. people also not paying their mortgage.

Also, on a side note is Rich ok? Haven't seen anything posted in the forum for a while.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2021 - 7:00pm.

Howdy - All is well, thanks... just been super busy. I hope to have the Dec 20 stats up this week.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 10, 2021 - 10:16pm.

barnaby33 wrote:
Link to tv segment. I just saw this and am curious about the thoughts of the peanut gallery. Is this the beginning of a tsunami, or a large nothing burger? I realize if you are a landlord with non-paying tenants it doesn't feel like a nothing burger, but statistically will this have a real effect?
Josh

Speaking for SD which is what we deal with here a nothing burger with substandard in n out fries

Submitted by svelte on January 11, 2021 - 9:50am.

pluto wrote:
svelte wrote:
taking a quick look, the mortgage delinquency rate nationwide is not as bad as I expected to see:

http://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/1221202...

The statistic isn't as high because it excludes those in forbearance, i.e. people also not paying their mortgage.

I don't see that as a big issue either as those folks will be able to make up those payments over time:

"Forbearance doesn’t mean your payments are forgiven or erased. You are still required to repay any missed or reduced payments in the future, which in most cases may be repaid over time. At the end of the forbearance, your servicer will contact you about how the missed payments will be repaid. There may be different programs available."

https://www.consumerfinance.gov/coronavi...

And even if the increased monthly payments are too high, housing values are still high so they can still sell and get out OK in many cases.

Submitted by pluto on January 12, 2021 - 10:24pm.

Great to know your ok Rich!

If, the people cant pay now and want/need forbearance what means they can pay when forbearance ends? There will be pressure to sell the home. I think it's likely that will increase inventory, and favor buyers after the forbearance "dust" settles. Then motivated home owners will start flinging comp bombs.

I think the financial pause is just that a pause. Home prices are where they at because there are fewer homes for sale, and some people have to move. Home prices can only be supported by the buyer pool.

San Diego's buyer pool is affluent and usually financially educated. When they tour a home and see a model match for 30k less, they first ask what's wrong with the other home? When the answer is nothing, it becomes a will of motivation then a line on where a short sale will be.

Submitted by Coronita on January 13, 2021 - 1:25am.

pluto wrote:

If, the people cant pay now and want/need forbearance what means they can pay when forbearance ends? There will be pressure to sell the home. I think it's likely that will increase inventory, and favor buyers after the forbearance "dust" settles. Then motivated home owners will start flinging comp bombs.

I think the financial pause is just that a pause. Home prices are where they at because there are fewer homes for sale, and some people have to move. Home prices can only be supported by the buyer pool.

San Diego's buyer pool is affluent and usually financially educated. When they tour a home and see a model match for 30k less, they first ask what's wrong with the other home? When the answer is nothing, it becomes a will of motivation then a line on where a short sale will be.

I'm assuming we can exclude most tech and biotech workers, since they seem to be doing well if not better and are an outlier.

Beyond that, what are the numbers looking like? Has anyone noticed if we've seen any pickup of migration from people North of us to down here, now that those workers are most likely working remotely indefinitely? Can't say for sure, but I thought I've seen a few folks recently relocate down here from Bay Area because they think home prices here are cheap(er) and now they can work remotely from here indefinitely...

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 13, 2021 - 11:33am.

Anecdotally speaking with fellow agents up my way there is a definite and substantial uptick in arrivals from Bay Area/LA Area underway.

Im gonna update the NC coastal monitor now. I lost interest in Urban Metro Suburban monitor as it was so uneventful. I may add one for my friends in Mira Mesa:)

Submitted by barnaby33 on January 19, 2021 - 3:08pm.

I alone have two Google re-pats. They left to take jobs with Google, but have since returned while keeping their jobs.
Josh

Submitted by Escoguy on January 19, 2021 - 4:58pm.

Any thoughts in North County inland are appreciated: 92127/92078/92027

Asking prices are ticking up steadily 30-50K over just a few months ago is not unusual for 4 BR SFH. What was 800-820K in Oct is now asking 850K.

Some larger inland are hitting the 1.2M mark as well if there is a pool and 3500+ sf.

I sometimes wonder if I'm dreaming all this.

Oh, well, sold some bitcoin to get part of the downpayment ready for the next one.
It's almost not worth mentioning.

Did I hear about a 15K tax credit for first time buyers being discussed?

I can see pros and cons on that one.

Submitted by Coronita on January 19, 2021 - 11:47pm.

Ah yes...looks like it's raining in San Diego real estate....

Dude just got pardoned too!!! LOL.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 12:00am.

Free Wayne!

Submitted by svelte on January 20, 2021 - 11:29am.

Into each life a Lil Wayne must fall.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 20, 2021 - 1:38pm.

Escoguy wrote:
Any thoughts in North County inland are appreciated: 92127/92078/92027

Asking prices are ticking up steadily 30-50K over just a few months ago is not unusual for 4 BR SFH. What was 800-820K in Oct is now asking 850K.

Some larger inland are hitting the 1.2M mark as well if there is a pool and 3500+ sf.

I sometimes wonder if I'm dreaming all this.

Oh, well, sold some bitcoin to get part of the downpayment ready for the next one.
It's almost not worth mentioning.

Did I hear about a 15K tax credit for first time buyers being discussed?

I can see pros and cons on that one.

I think those are 3 very different markets. I think 92127 will behave more like the coast with 92078 a step behind. Homes that were 1.1ish 18 months ago are pushing 1.3 here now.

Not as familiar with 92027 without doing more research. Id expect it to lag the others as it usually does but all boats are rising

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