Fence Sitters Will Be Sorry

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 9, 2008 - 5:06pm

Our favorite housing cheerleader, Chuck Smiar, is back in the news again today with another attempt to scare real estate fence sitters into action. After issuing a warning to hesitating homebuyers that they were "in for a surprise" back in December, Chuck had this to say in a North County Times piece earlier today:

"There's a lot of buyers sitting on the fence waiting for the bottom. And I think if they don't jump in soon, they're going to be sorry."

read more at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 9, 2008 - 5:37pm.

Smiar, smiar, pants on fire.

Submitted by temeculaguy on April 9, 2008 - 5:48pm.

Eventually he will be right, unfortunately for him, it will not be anytime soon. The other realtor quoted in the article actually makes a valid point and is consistent with what I've seen as a buyer. There is activity and it may seem like a great deal of activity but it's only at a very few, agressively priced homes. Houses that are nice and are listed for 15-20% below the lowest price comparable house in the neighborhood are selling within days and getting multiple offers. I wonder if any agents other than Jim realize that. I saw two examples in recent weeks where every other house is priced in the 400's and a decent one comes up at 280k, that is not a short sale, it was sold within a day and before I could even look at it. It's not a new lesson but it is hard one for people to learn, slash the price today and sell or you will be sorry in six months when you lower your price to that same number and nobody will look at it because the market has shifted. Get ahead of the curve and make the fence sitter feel he has an insurance policy against the next 10-20% decline, those are the only ones tempting the sitters, not threats. There has been a radical shift n the demographic of the buyers, the only ones with money and the ability to get a loan are too smart for threats and the dummies don't qualify for loans, Chuck's going to have to bring data for today's buyer.

Submitted by cr on April 9, 2008 - 7:02pm.

For those of you who wonder when we will see the bottom, it will be when Smiar tells you it's not a good time to buy a house.

Submitted by BuyerWillEPB on April 9, 2008 - 8:21pm.

Hey Chuck -

I'm not waiting for "the bottom" of the market, I'm waiting until the house market is AFFORDABLE.

Speaka da Engrish?

Our household income is $120K / year, so I'm waiting until the median house price in San Diego is back to $360,000.

Correction! Since we make well above the average household income - I'm waiting until I can buy a well above average house for $360,000.

Heck, I bet that will take such a long time that you'll be back at your used car sales job with your Dooggg Spot by then!

Submitted by NotCranky on April 9, 2008 - 10:40pm.

deleted by Rustico

Submitted by CA renter on April 9, 2008 - 11:38pm.

Well said, Temeculaguy.

Submitted by eyePod on April 10, 2008 - 4:01am.

Has anybody else noticed the implied message -- right after we hit bottom the market will zoom upward like when you got left out before so you better buy. If history is any lesson, the inflection point will be somewhere out around 10 years from now.

Submitted by Ex-SD on April 10, 2008 - 6:58am.


Well said and spot on the money.

The greater fools will listen to this idiot and rush out to buy before it's too late. Then, in about two years, they'll be pissing and moaning to the news media about how they were taken for a ride. It's a never ending cycle.

Submitted by jpinpb on April 10, 2008 - 8:34am.

I agree. Thank you all for the rebuttal to Smiar's BS Red Alert scare tactic.

Rich - Another great article. Thanks.

Submitted by Ace23NY on April 10, 2008 - 9:28am.

How is this guy still in charge of anything? I agree, back to the used car sales job, my friend.

Submitted by ibjames on April 10, 2008 - 9:44am.

I love the graph though, it makes me laugh every time I look at it.. I don't know why, it really cracks me up ha ha

Submitted by PadreBrian on April 10, 2008 - 9:55am.

Funny stuff! "You'll be sorry if you don't buy now"...LOL!

Submitted by Taison on April 10, 2008 - 10:53am.

If you don't buy soon, Chuck will be out of job. "You will be sorry" for him if you want to.

Submitted by San Diego RE Bear on April 10, 2008 - 5:43pm.

Thanks for this spot of levity in a busy tax season Rich! I'm going to print it out and laminate it and shove in the faces of the perma-bulls I keep running into. Last week had to be around a not terribly bright realtor who said 1.) This is our best year ever 2.) Our office is making more money than we did in 2005 3.) More houses are selling now than in 2005 and 4.) Prices in San Diego have not dropped at all except on condos which are causing all the losses.

I can't decide is this guy is completely corrupt, completely a moron or was so completely bad in 2005 that he sold no houses and got lucky and sold one this year. Suspect all three. I've learned to just smile and nod and see if the bulls will make a $100 bet that prices will be down (up for them) in a year. Too bad I know I’ll never collect – these guys don’t have the morals to pay a debt.

Submitted by greekfire on April 11, 2008 - 12:00am.

Chuck Smiar's Fence Sitter Threat-O-Graph has now become my favorite Piggington graph of all time. Keep up the good work Rich!

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