Feeling Bullish Today...

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Submitted by Coronita on August 19, 2007 - 9:34am

In the spirit of a previous thread

...For the record, I'm feeling pretty bullish about the equity markets this coming week. My hopes are for a recovery in the asian markets, particular japan. As such, I'm hoping for a short squeeze on monday and tuesday.

Disclosure: I'm heavily long on the US markets, and took up a large stake in japan indexes last friday.

Not shy about stating my contrarian viewpoint here. And if I'm wrong, so be it.

Everyone long and short, best of luck this week.

Submitted by Coronita on August 19, 2007 - 8:15pm.

Woot!

Nikkei is up 3.7% at midday.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=%5En225

Hopefully, it sustains and the positive momentum spills over into the next trading session here.

Submitted by LA_Renter on August 19, 2007 - 9:58pm.

I have no idea what to expect anymore but while the Asian markets are soaring right now our futures are actually slightly down. The Nikkei fell over 800 pts on Friday and did not get to respond to the monumental .50 discount rate cut from the Fed. I was not impressed with the 200+ plus move on Friday in the Dow, I was expecting a 350 to 500 pt move especially with the amount of short interest in the market. It was actually a pretty weak short squeeze. Anyway I wish you luck with your investments, you are mighty brave in this environment.

Submitted by HereWeGo on August 20, 2007 - 7:06am.

nm

Submitted by HereWeGo on August 20, 2007 - 7:06am.

Treasury yields continue to fall, the 91-day precipitously so. That's not particularly bullish, when a large magnitude of capital rushes into what is essentially cash.

Last week's Fed actions would appear to be insufficient. It's time to either cut the FFR or let it float for a while, at least until investors start to pull back from cash positions.

Submitted by LA_Renter on August 20, 2007 - 8:50am.

Yep

"Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) -- Ten-year Treasuries gained, extending last week's rally, on signs the credit crunch in the U.S. will cost jobs and may slow the economy."

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=2...

Not exactly bullish

Is the FED going to be pushing on a string at this point??

Submitted by HereWeGo on August 20, 2007 - 9:15am.

Just the opposite ... the Fed hasn't even started pushing yet. The market seems to indicate that Wayne Angel is correct, the longer they wait, the further they will need to drop the FFR. Right now, the market is saying the Fed should drop the FFR by oh, about 225 bps.

Submitted by LA_Renter on August 20, 2007 - 9:26am.

Interesting theater between Ben and the Market. You know Japan dropped to zero and turned the spigots on. I wonder if we will be talking about the US Dollar carry trade in the near future??

Submitted by Ozzie on August 20, 2007 - 2:13pm.

FWIW, my Schwab portfolio is just about 2% from where it was at the peak of the market after a nice day today. I'm heavily weighted towards DE, CAT, SLB, and BRK and a few tech and Int'l funds. Schwab just upgraded CAT today which was my only concern after their subpar results last qtr.

My dumb move was not to take action and buy puts on Moody's. I noted last week that I was surprised there were not Congressional hearings into why the ratings agencies gave such high ratings to the junk CDO's that Wall St created. Today Sen. Dodd called for those investigations. I'm kind of ambivalent. I know these guys messed up ad gave the ratings to gain business, but I also have exposure as BRK owns 18% of them. It will be interesting to hear Buffet's take on this and see if he buys more on weakness over the coming months.

I'm convinced there will be a full point rate cut by the end of the year and I also think you'll see Fannie's conforming limit increased sharply.

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