February Foreclosure Chart Extravaganza

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 17, 2008 - 4:37pm

As with the data quasi-rodeo, I'm going to be light on verbiage and just update the charts for this month whilst applying a liberal interpretation of the term "extravaganza."

Seems at first like a decline from January, but it really isn't. Here I plagiarize from my own voiceofsandiego.org column on the same topic:

This particular February contained 21 business days -- 8.6 percent fewer than January. February's NOD and NOT counts were, respectively, 2.6 percent and 4.3 percent less than January's. So the pace of foreclosure activity per business day was higher in February than January.

And... charts:

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Submitted by CricketOnTheHearth on March 20, 2008 - 9:58am.

Looking at the first two charts, it really looks to me like the down-jag is an aberration caused by the October fires, and in a more overall manner the curves are still heading geometrically (exponentially? in an x-squared fashion, anyway) up. Wow. And Ow.

What is the next bubble?
I think we are seeing it now in precious metals and commodities. I am always sure that gold is near its peak when the shysters come on TV and in the magazines with ads saying, "now is the time to buy gold." I remember the exact same thing in 1980-ish when gold was near $1000/ounce then.

Wishing I had thought to buy gold in the Clinton years when everyone scorned it and it was $300/ounce. (sigh) I guess such a time will eventually come 'round again.

>chirp<

Submitted by matt8268 on March 20, 2008 - 1:13pm.

In response to previous post...gold is likely to be the next bubble, but I don't think it's near its peak yet. It's likely to correct having run up to $1000 so quickly, but remember its peak around 1980 of around $850 would be north of $2200 in today's dollars. And not sure about you, but nobody around the watercooler at my work mentions gold...contrast that with Nasdaq stocks in 1999.

Be careful that right now isn't in fact another one of those times you will be "wishing you had thought to buy gold".

Submitted by cr on March 20, 2008 - 3:20pm.

With Gold losing 10% in the 2 days then, was $1000 the peak or is this a buying opp?

Time will tell.

Submitted by stpiermj on March 21, 2008 - 7:56am.

If we are truly in a recession and if the Fed is going to continue to deflate I believe we will see a major drop in commodities from here on out until the Fed sees fit to start to inflate again. Once the market figures out that inflation is Dead, the dollar will rebound significantly. Gold should decrease and find a stable bottom while the investors that have a position in the bullion market start to unload into bonds. I think it will take off again once the economy finds a stable bottom. Perhaps by end of 2010. That's what all the guru's I hear from are saying. Regardless, it's always a good policy to skim some profits when you are on the way up (10%???).

Submitted by stpiermj on March 21, 2008 - 7:57am.

If we are truly in a recession and if the Fed is going to continue to deflate I believe we will see a major drop in commodities from here on out until the Fed sees fit to start to inflate again. Once the market figures out that inflation is Dead, the dollar will rebound significantly. Gold should decrease and find a stable bottom while the investors that have a position in the bullion market start to unload into bonds. I think it will take off again once the economy finds a stable bottom. Perhaps by end of 2010. That's what all the guru's I hear from are saying. Regardless, it's always a good policy to skim some profits when you are on the way up (10%???).

Submitted by stpiermj on March 21, 2008 - 7:58am.

If we are truly in a recession and if the Fed is going to continue to deflate I believe we will see a major drop in commodities from here on out until the Fed sees fit to start to inflate again. Once the market figures out that inflation is Dead, the dollar will rebound significantly. Gold should decrease and find a stable bottom while the investors that have a position in the bullion market start to unload into bonds. I think it will take off again once the economy finds a stable bottom. Perhaps by end of 2010. That's what all the guru's I hear from are saying. Regardless, it's always a good policy to skim some profits when you are on the way up (10%???).

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