February Case-Shiller HPI

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 29, 2008 - 1:13pm

Yet another crunchy beating was dispensed to the Case-Shiller-HPI last month.

The low-tier index was down 4.1%, mid-tier was down 3.9%, and high-tier was down 2.7%. This continues the pattern seen in recent months where low-priced homes are still taking the brunt of it, but the high tier is now feeling the pain as well.

The aggregate index was down 3.6% for the month, for a total decline from the peak of 24.0 percent on the dot.

My "proxy" HPI (calculated using 3-month average of the single family size-adjusted median) did a pretty good job for February. The proxy predicted a decline of 3.8% vs. an actual decline of 3.6%. Below is the updated chart combining the HPI with predicted HPI (this will be updated for April next week).

Here's a long-term look at the three tiers in nominal terms.

Here's a look at the decline from the peak and long-term, but this time adjusted for CPI inflation. The low tier, despite the drubbing endured to date, still remains more historically overpriced compared to the other tiers.

The February HPI is calculated based on home sales that took place in December, January, and February. So assuming a fairly constant trend, the index level is more indicative of January prices than anything else. Evidence suggests that prices have declined further since then.

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Submitted by EconProf on April 29, 2008 - 6:40pm.

The reality is even worse than this graph shows if time lags are taken into account. For several months now, it shows about a 3% per month decline, averaging the three categories. But the data are about three months old, suggesting that todays prices are about 10% lower still.

Submitted by Michelle Steffes on April 30, 2008 - 10:35am.

Michelle Steffes

Still waiting for the NAR to call the bottom. Also haven't heard from anymore agents claiming that the bad media attention is causing the fall.

Submitted by Fearful on April 30, 2008 - 2:20pm.

Rich, did you see the note on the Case Shiller web site offering zip code level data via Fiserve? I'd love to see the 92130 and 92014 data, but they negotiate prices, starting at about $3500. I wanna see the data but not that bad!

Submitted by Daniel on April 30, 2008 - 3:39pm.

Our own esmith has got that data as well (well, his own implementation of it). He regularly posts the updates here.

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