San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
February 2019 housing data: a bit of strengthening
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 10, 2019 - 5:20pm
After declining into the end of the year, prices have gained a bit:
December was weak enough, however, that the 3 month average single-family pr/sqft was still a new low. Note that the current correction is unlike anything seen since the housing bull market began (which I date Jan 2012, as that was the date of the inflation-adjusted low).
Here's a fun new graph... the year-over-year change in the single family home price per square foot (I used a 3-month average to smooth it out a bit):
While still positive, the annual price change is at the lowest point since very early in the boom. Prices will need to keep rising for this to avoid going negative, as the more difficult year-over-year comparison happens later in the year. For what that's worth.
Inventory declined quite a bit, comparative to the prior year. If you look at the gap between Dec 2018 (blue line) and Dec 2017 (red line), it was huge. There is still a gap between Feb 2019 (green) and Feb 2018 (blue) -- but it's smaller than the December gap.
The same goes with months of inventory, to an even greater extent. Months of inventory is higher than this time last year, but the year-over-year gap is way smaller than in December. So again, a relative improvement over late last year.
Just looking at a linear graph shows how sharp the drop in months of inventory was over the past couple months (it's still the highest February level since the boom started, outside of the very beginning in Feb 2012):
Here's months of inventory vs. prices:
If these relationships hold, it seems like the current level of months-inventory is consistent with pretty stable prices. Of course this may change as the spring selling season progresses.
More graphs below:
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