February 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 17, 2011 - 5:50pm
Last month, the median price per square foot of existing homes sold in San Diego rose notably -- by 2.2 percent for single family homes, 2.5 percent for condos, and 2.4 percent in aggregate:

The Case-Shiller proxy nonetheless declined, since it's based on a three-month average and the past two months were pretty bad:

Here are the above two charts lined up with calendar years, for watchers of seasonal patterns:

Sales dropped to what appears to be the typical seasonal extent lately:

Pending sales were up, but nearly as much as in February 2010.

Inventory rose for the first time since beginning its late-2010 decline:

And months of inventory were very slightly down:

The apparent monthly jump in prices notwithstanding, the ratio of supply to demand was nearly unchanged between January and February.  And while months of inventory were down from the insalubrious levels of late last year, they were still quite a bit higher -- 26%, to be exact -- than they had been a year back in February 2010.  The decline in months of inventory and the increase in pricing imply that the market might show a bit more strength than it has recently, but I wouldn't expect a spring rally anything like what we saw last year.

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Submitted by CA renter on March 18, 2011 - 5:45pm.

More good data, as always. Looks like more of the same, but a bit slower than the stimulus-fed years of late. The market feels slower to me this spring than in past years. It will be interesting to see if things pick up more through the spring. Otherwise, it looks like we will have another very slow year (feels like 2007-ish).

The through-the-floor building starts and permits pulled might be telling us something, too.

Thank you, Rich!

Submitted by Jazzman on March 19, 2011 - 6:45am.

Interesting to see how closely the Case Shiller and the median price track each other. I wonder how much more predictive a three month moving average is of trends though?

Submitted by greenlander on March 20, 2011 - 9:57am.

Great data, Rich. Keep up the good work.

Submitted by BreckenridgeRealtor on March 21, 2011 - 12:19pm.

Great info for San Diego. I am always looking to see what is going on in other markets. Two depressing national stats I recently saw is that FL properties are 20% vacant and that last month was saw the second largest decline in resales on record.

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