Expected and unexpected consequences of autonomous cars and trucks

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Submitted by teaboy on August 3, 2018 - 4:11pm

What are your predictions on the short and long term effects of autonomous car and trucks?

1. Will fewer people go to stores since autonomous trucks can roaming your neighborhood selling you stuff right on your doorstep? Or will more people go to stores since it's easier to hail an autonomous cab to get there and people want to get out of the house?

2. Should I invest in go-kart companies? Will there be a surge in real life go-kart tracks or full size auto race tracks for folks who miss the thrill of driving? Or will VR move to fill that need? Or will the thrill/desire of driving disappear as newer generations grow up without knowing or wanting to know how to drive?

3. Will motorbikes get more or less popular?

4. Will houses and real estate in the boonies appreciate in value quicker than those downtown, due to a quicker and more convenient commute?

5. Will garage conversions to a bedroom or living space mean more people living in the same size houses? Does that mean a higher percentage of multi-generational households?

just some of the random thoughts keeping me from doing something more useful this Friday...

tb

Submitted by spdrun on August 3, 2018 - 5:06pm.

Best case, this garbage will be mired in the courts for 20 years while regulations are written and re-written.

This being said, autonomous cars will likely be OWNED or solely leased by a significant percent of the population. The car-as-a-service model collapses when you're lugging things in the car and don't want to unload them immediately, or if you want to use your car as a giant backpack or handbag.

Most Americans don't take taxis or ride public transport 100% of the time -- I don't see their habits changing quickly with robo-cars.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 4, 2018 - 8:09am.

I agree with spdun,

Most People will still want their own cars (They want to keep a large amount of stuff handy + most people don't go to "1" store then go immediately back home etc...)

(Me) Cities (downtown's) in Socal are almost laughable, there in no way more than say 3 or 5~ percent of the population can live there or even be really close.

Suburbs turn into large cities fairly quickly.

You can almost think of all SD county coastal as one large city (I-15 corridor not too far off). Carlsbad even Oceanside have been growing very fast.

What was the number I think 25% growth over the last 15-20 years? Anyway it does not seem to be slowing down any time soon.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 8:16am.

My theory is that online shopping and tech including autonomous will kill retail leaving only the regional centers, and services.
Since humans are social, they long to be near major aglomerations so the top 10 cities will continue to outpace the country in appreciation. Demand begets demand.
Why do you think UTC will start charging parking? Because they can! People want to go there to feel like they are going out and enjoying.
Places like Disney and Vegas will draw visitors because people will look at it as an escape from their boring lives. "Entertainment lifestyle centers" as the malls will become, will all charge for parking/entrance.

The predictions of telecommuting are correct only that people want to telecommute from their homes in major metros. They don't want to live in the middle of nowhere.

Eventually urban planners will do away with parking requirements so cities will change.
There will be more and more people who choose to live without their own cars. It depends on the car share buiness models to develop. But I see more people relying on uber and Lyft already.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 8:32am.

The-Shoveler wrote:

Suburbs turn into large cities fairly quickly.

You can almost think of all SD county coastal as one large city (I-15 corridor not too far off). Carlsbad even Oceanside have been growing very fast.

What was the number I think 25% growth over the last 15-20 years? Anyway it does not seem to be slowing down any time soon.

Yes. But what about the 100,000 pop towns in Kansas? They will die.

The big mall in Temecula will eventually be turned into lifestyle center and charge parking. Mid rise condos will be built as infill, like Bella Terra area in Huntington Beach. My prediction for next 20 years.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 8:21am.

spdrun wrote:
Best case, this garbage will be mired in the courts for 20 years while regulations are written and re-written.

Perhaps in USA where the courts can slow everything to a crawl. But China could actually embrace new tech and dominate. If they become successful and own the tech we will be left behind, poorer and with only tears of what-could-have-been.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 4, 2018 - 10:18am.

Soccer Mom's rule the world LOL.

What will soccer Moms do?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 10:50am.

spdrun wrote:

This being said, autonomous cars will likely be OWNED or solely leased by a significant percent of the population. The car-as-a-service model collapses when you're lugging things in the car and don't want to unload them immediately, or if you want to use your car as a giant backpack or handbag.

Most Americans don't take taxis or ride public transport 100% of the time -- I don't see their habits changing quickly with robo-cars.

I agree. But car as a service will create companies worth $ billions. As any business person knows it’s not keeping the status quo that generates great wealth. It’s the incremental innovation and growth. The USA is not all there is. Car as a service would work great in NYC and all the major cities of the world.

I see more people using Turo to rent cars now, namely tenants who stay at my furnished rentals. Basically, savvy, educated people want to be able to book and order anything online. It’s a lifestyle thing.

Economically, we want platforms that allow efficient 24/7 operations. We don’t want assets to sit iddle.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 10:48am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Soccer Mom's rule the world LOL.

What will soccer Moms do?

They will need to pay to park at “lifestyle centers” when they want to experience shopping, dinning.... some “urban” activities.

They along will more Americans will be on Prozac more. It’s already 1 out of 5.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 4, 2018 - 11:03am.

When you think about it everything from Cars to whole communities is designed for soccer Mom's

If you want to know the future (in Socal) think like a Soccer Mom.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 4, 2018 - 1:21pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
When you think about it everything from Cars to whole communities is designed for soccer Mom's

If you want to know the future (in Socal) think like a Soccer Mom.

Yes. I agree. Especially the new master planned communities.
But they will travel to UTC more for that special birthday dinner or anniversary. Because retail stores will die in their areas except for regional lifestyle centers.

I told you before about friends who retired from LA to Temecula. Last weekend, they drove to Fashion Valley to enjoy the day. I’m like are you nuts? Such a long drive just for that? I didn’t want to be negative on social media so I said “nice!”

Interesting that urban areas like north park are getting a Target.

Oh, I’m thinking that places like Santee town square will eventually charge parking. And with new tech coming they won’t need to install gates.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 5, 2018 - 8:16am.

People like to go on weekend excursions. Just another reason most people will want their personal cars.

lots of people from all over SoCal visit Temecula all the time. (almost every weekend something is happening at old town front street). Gets kind or annoying sometimes actually having all these tourist around.

Its fun to go places.

We go to Laguna beach probably once a month or so just because its a beautiful place to have fun. Then we may end up in Monterey park just to go shopping and to eat etc.. maybe once every 3 months or so.

Every time I go to the Temecula mall it always seems full of people shopping, eating etc...

That said I do think it will be harder and harder for Mom and Pop retail shops to survive.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 5, 2018 - 4:18pm.

What about is there wee an efficient platform that would allow people to rent a car for the weekend. Rent a car from a neighbor who not using his car and could use the income to pay bills.

I’m exited about the sharing economy. So much potential.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 20, 2018 - 9:36am.

Shovelor, I would to have a self drive car. I’m all for that.

But for me, it’s not either or. I also would like to live closer to public transport. Why can’t we have it all?
I just talked to a friend who bought a condo in Bangkok for investment. It’s 500 meters from the BTS station (skytrain/metro). He said that 500 m is far. If buying to live, it should be 200 m or less.

We were talking meters, not miles. In USA driving 5 miles to the freeway is considered close. Such a waste of time and energy in transport!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on August 20, 2018 - 9:41am.

Sure that would be nice, but that would most likely only be attainable to a very small percentage of the population.

Submitted by gzz on August 20, 2018 - 2:50pm.

Self driving cars are closer than we think. Self driving Ubers might not make many of us give up cars, but think about:

1. Elderly people who make 1-2 car trips per week and 1000 miles a year.

2. Married couples in apartments who have 2 cars but only one off-street spot.

3. People who walk/bike/transit to work, but have a car for errands

4. College students who keep their high school car at their parents' house to use for visits/summer only.

The point is, there are many marginal car owners who can realisticly give them up once there are self-driving Ubers. Rich people, people with children, people who do a lot of home improvement work, people who love driving, etc would be the groups who wouldn't give up private car ownership.

Nonetheless, I could see in the medium term future the number of privately owned cars go down by more than 25% in San Diego. The average private car is parked 23 hours a day and needs an average of two parking spots. There is really some amazing potential to use urban and inner-suburban land in more productive ways as private car ownership declines. The self-driving cars can be on the road 18 hours, and then sleep/recharge at night when demand is low in a solar powered garage off the 8 in El Cajon.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 20, 2018 - 5:14pm.

Gzz, I think your prediction will come true.

I see a lot more people relying solely on Uber/Lyft already.

What I find surprising is that, among people who are so-called economically minded, there is no outcry for a sharing economy — car share and house share, land use reform. Those are the most inefficient uses of capital. There must be ways to use those assets more efficiently. Letting them sit iddle does nobody any good.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on August 20, 2018 - 5:20pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Sure that would be nice, but that would most likely only be attainable to a very small percentage of the population.

In many cities in Europe and Asia, millions of homes are within 500 meters of a metro station.

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