Employment Goes Negative

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 18, 2008 - 7:01pm

San Diego employment has just decreased on a year-over-year basis, falling by 1,700 jobs between March 2007 and March 2008.

That is a very small drop in the grand scheme of things, representing a decline of just .1 percent. But it's the first time in a long time that employment has turned negative at all. The data I pulled from the Employment Development Department website goes back to the year 2000, and it shows that even during the recession and slowdown that took place at the beginning of this decade, the weakest month showed a year-over-year increase of 2,300 jobs.

So even though we are not in an officially recognized recession, San Diego's employment situation is worse than it ever got in the aftermath of the 2001 recession.

read more at voiceofsandiego.org

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Submitted by JWM in SD on April 19, 2008 - 11:37am.

Just as long as everything is okay in Carmel Valley...nobody ever loses their job in Carmel Valley.

Sarcasm Off.

Submitted by eyePod on April 20, 2008 - 5:25am.

The only real movement is in construction/RE - significantly down. "Everything else" is pretty flat.

Submitted by Mr. Drysdale on April 20, 2008 - 8:43am.

"Everything else is pretty flat". Yes, but "for now" only. A link to an article on the Drudgereport.com about a week ago said there was an alarming rise in bankruptcies and in the activities that precede a bankruptcy among many of the nations largest retailers. These things happen slowly, but other industry sectors will soon be affected as well. I know this is not a revelation for most here, but I thought I'd comment given the coincidence of that article that appeared on Drudge.

Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 21, 2008 - 8:29am.

I think it is probably important at this point in the cycle to understand what is in the "Everything else" category.

Since this category created 14,500 jobs in the last 12 months (compared to 16,200 lost in housing-related, finance and retail), it is very important to understand what these jobs are going forward.
At some point, housing and finance will be so slow that the job losses in these categories will eventually slow (you eventually adjust to the much lower volume of sales). The big question is whether the job losses continue to spread from retail to other industries/job categories.

Is there any information on the breakdown of new jobs in the "everything else" category ?

Submitted by pencilneck on April 21, 2008 - 9:27am.

This isn't a reply to the question above, but there was a good long term chart of San Diego County employment in this Saturday's UT:

Jobless rate increases in S.D. County.

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 21, 2008 - 9:32am.

FSD I haven't updated that chart in a while but if you can dig it up you will find that leisure/hospitality has been the big winner. This is a low-paying sector so that's not good news. Runners up were usually distant and include govt, health services, and professional services, which pay better.

I will try to update that chart again. It's kind of a pain which is why I don't do it every month, but it's been a while so it's a good time for an update.


Submitted by FormerSanDiegan on April 21, 2008 - 10:20am.

Thanks Rich. Once or twice a year is probably often enough to update the category. If the job gains are still dominated by leisure/hospitality then I'd bet that they will soon be running into a wall.

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