"Ditch the Doorman for the Cul-de-Sac"

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Submitted by Coronita on June 17, 2020 - 10:55am

More and more people seem to be moving out of the city into the burbs. Retail numbers seem to suggest this as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/these-ar...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 17, 2020 - 11:11am.

Good riddance, more for us.

One day, i will consider myself arrived when I can afford a pied a terre in Manhattan.
I don’t even need a doorman. A walk up without elevator would be ok. Wait, in my old age i will need an elevator.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 17, 2020 - 11:13am.

maybe. NYC without money might not be a place for old people.

growing up there in the 70s, i remmeber it being scary. It somehow got disneyfied afetr giuliani. If it went downhill, it would be no place for the elderly.

Submitted by Coronita on June 17, 2020 - 11:22am.

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/americ...

Americans are eyeing homes in the suburbs as pent-up demand hits housing market

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 17, 2020 - 11:40am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
maybe. NYC without money might not be a place for old people.

growing up there in the 70s, i remmeber it being scary. It somehow got disneyfied afetr giuliani. If it went downhill, it would be no place for the elderly.

I know scaredy. When Reagan went to NYC to showcase urban decay, that was the peak of white flight. My old cousin is a typical exurban housewife who hates the city. But her kids live in the city. One son invested in Hoboken when it was shit and he now owns a nice portfolio including commercial buildings with stores and apartments upstairs.

Suburban life in USA goes against global trends. I have my theories.... but long term, the cities will win. We’ll see.

Submitted by svelte on June 17, 2020 - 12:46pm.

Coronita wrote:
More and more people seem to be moving out of the city into the burbs. Retail numbers seem to suggest this as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/these-are-the-retail-winners-as-consumers-ditch-the-doorman-for-the-cul-de-sac-says-jefferies.html

"The Wall Street firm surveyed 1,000 city dwellers and 23% of them said they plan to relocate to the suburbs in the next 18 months."

That is an astounding number.

I must admit that I expected a suburban migration as the younger generation aged, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect a quarter of the city population to want to leave. We'll see if that lasts past 12 months...

Submitted by svelte on June 17, 2020 - 12:58pm.

Wow! I just checked the listings in San Marcos...people are asking astounding prices! This wasn't happening just a couple of weeks ago.

It will be interesting to see if these sell for anything near what they're asking. Just amazing.

Submitted by Coronita on June 17, 2020 - 1:07pm.

svelte wrote:
Coronita wrote:
More and more people seem to be moving out of the city into the burbs. Retail numbers seem to suggest this as well.

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/17/these-are-the-retail-winners-as-consumers-ditch-the-doorman-for-the-cul-de-sac-says-jefferies.html

"The Wall Street firm surveyed 1,000 city dwellers and 23% of them said they plan to relocate to the suburbs in the next 18 months."

That is an astounding number.

I must admit that I expected a suburban migration as the younger generation aged, but never in my wildest dreams did I expect a quarter of the city population to want to leave. We'll see if that lasts past 12 months...

A lot of people don't want to live in the city anymore. It was already a bigger pain in the ass for a family with kids. Being locked down just accelerates this trend. Having to work from home means more people want more space for a home office, a backyard where kids can pass time, and just general more space from your neighbors. Parking isn't also a pain in the ass, as more people want to travel via car versus plane or other public transportation where they would be at a higher risk of catching something from a stranger. Good news for burbs. Bad news for cities. City life is great when single. Not so great unless you stay single.

Submitted by svelte on June 17, 2020 - 1:14pm.

Coronita wrote:
Parking isn't also a pain in the ass...

Over the last few years, there has also been a trend to closing off sidewalks for outdoor restaurant area and even taking away parking spots for restaurant seating. This past year parking was taken away for bike lanes and now entire streets are closing to traffic.

Maybe folks are saying enough is enough, I'm out...gonna live where the living is easy.

Submitted by svelte on June 17, 2020 - 1:30pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Good riddance, more for us.

One day, i will consider myself arrived when I can afford a pied a terre in Manhattan.
I don’t even need a doorman. A walk up without elevator would be ok.

Unless you are living on floors 1, 2 or 3 you are one weird dude.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 17, 2020 - 1:49pm.

I lived in Shanghai (carless) for a few months, at first it was kind of neat, but then it became a real PITA after the first week or so (and that was just basically being on vacation). Lots of walking and carrying LOL.

Could not imagine doing it while working etc...

Doing it during the pandemic must have been just miserable.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 17, 2020 - 3:49pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I lived in Shanghai (carless) for a few months, at first it was kind of neat, but then it became a real PITA after the first week or so (and that was just basically being on vacation). Lots of walking and carrying LOL.

Could not imagine doing it while working etc...

Doing it during the pandemic must have been just miserable.

I assume you were living in a luxury serviced apartments in shanghai. I’m surprised you didn’t like it, especially if it was corporate provided.

This would be my ideal residence. So many developments like that in Asia. One day, I will say goodbye and move. I will post pictures, I promise. In the mean time, I need to earn enough money first.
https://youtu.be/xRKwnb_eoMk

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 17, 2020 - 4:31pm.

Older private residence (parents) in inner circle.

Was in a nice place, just a PITA to get around and carry stuff for a suburban car culture Boy like me.

I guess just not a city person.

Submitted by Coronita on June 17, 2020 - 7:23pm.

Can't fight the trend

Submitted by spdrun on June 17, 2020 - 8:05pm.

OF COURSE 23% of people will say "I'm moving out" when their city is locked down and everything is closed. Let's see what the survey results are after lockdowns are eased for a few months. A time of utter panic and chaos is recipe for bad data.

I also suspect that suburban areas and areas outside of major metro areas will be more vulnerable to a "second wave." Lower levels of population immunity and governors that apparently don't give a damn. Also, lower levels of mask use ... I see 75-80% of people in NYC wearing masks, not so in the 'burbs or in smaller US cities.

Submitted by svelte on June 17, 2020 - 8:24pm.

spdrun wrote:
OF COURSE 23% of people will say "I'm moving out" when their city is locked down and everything is closed. Let's see what the survey results are after lockdowns are eased for a few months. A time of utter panic and chaos is recipe for bad data.

Totally agree that's why I said let's wait 12 months and see what the stats say then.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 18, 2020 - 1:32am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Older private residence (parents) in inner circle.

Was in a nice place, just a PITA to get around and carry stuff for a suburban car culture Boy like me.

I guess just not a city person.

Shanghai is awesome. You’re oblivious to what you’re missing.

My first time in shanghai around 2002, I stayed at a friend’s what was working there. .He had and old condo from like the 1960s he bought for not much and remodeled — no elevators. Easy taxi ride and walking everywhere. At that time I was so stupid thinking that China had too many problems. Well, look at them now!

That friend now owns at least a dozen condos in Shanghai and Hong Kong. Undeterred by negative press, he has bought and flipped condos in many developments.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 18, 2020 - 1:42am.

svelte wrote:
spdrun wrote:
OF COURSE 23% of people will say "I'm moving out" when their city is locked down and everything is closed. Let's see what the survey results are after lockdowns are eased for a few months. A time of utter panic and chaos is recipe for bad data.

Totally agree that's why I said let's wait 12 months and see what the stats say then.

The USA is the only country in the world that has experienced urban flight. In other countries, the urban core has always been the most sought after.
American parents used to tell their kids never to buy apartments because “you only own the air”. But I think it’s changing slowly. I don’t see GE moving headquarters back to the suburbs.

As I get older, I am very reluctant to drive. I have no choice so I hate it.
15 miles is 25km for God’s sake! In most countries that considered super far. Imagine 25km outside of London or Tokyo.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 18, 2020 - 6:03am.

This was a trend that was started "before" the pandemic.
City is fine when young and single, not so much if you don't fit that criteria.

"never to buy apartments because “you only own the air”"

Still good advice in most cases IMO.

IMO good talent will demand the ability to WFH going forward and that will accelerate this trend.

Submitted by svelte on June 18, 2020 - 6:09am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
This was a trend that was started "before" the pandemic.
City is fine when young and single, not so much if you don't fit that criteria.

This is also true!

https://www.theatlantic.com/business/arc...

But large cities were making up for most of that out-migration through the in-migration of immigrants.

Given the current atmosphere, that is not as true as it was a couple of years ago.

What's not clear to me whether the 23% leaving the city number can be maintained after a vaccine is developed.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on June 18, 2020 - 7:27am.

Suburbanization of Shanghai and China

https://www.researchgate.net/publication...

https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.2...

Last time I went there it was starting to look more and more like the suburbs of L.A. , Most of my wife's old friends live in the burbs and drive cars (SUV's).

Like Scaredy said If you'er rich maybe City life is good when you are older, if not so rich, probably not so much.

Submitted by svelte on June 18, 2020 - 7:46am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Like Scaredy said If you'er rich maybe City life is good when you are older, if not so rich, probably not so much.

that Atlantic article I quoted above says that cities are mostly suitable for the wealthy and for poor immigrants.

The middle class is largely absent.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on June 18, 2020 - 9:58am.

svelte wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Like Scaredy said If you'er rich maybe City life is good when you are older, if not so rich, probably not so much.

that Atlantic article I quoted above says that cities are mostly suitable for the wealthy and for poor immigrants.

The middle class is largely absent.

when i was broke in nyc it sucked so bad.

Submitted by svelte on June 21, 2020 - 10:13am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

when i was broke in nyc it sucked so bad.

I can imagine. Having to walk by first class restaurants, nightclubs, stores. kind of like rubbing salt in the wound.

At least when I was broke I lived in little burgs where most everyone else was broke too. It kinda felt normal.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on June 21, 2020 - 10:47am.

Questions for those who think that suburbia is a superior lifestyle:

Do you ever go on vacation to another suburbia? Except for Disney or to visit relatives?

If suburban sprawl is what consumers demand, then why not let the free market dictate what gets built? Dense developments would not be financially viable for lack of residents.

Submitted by PCinSD on June 21, 2020 - 11:19am.

scaredyclassic wrote:

when i was broke in nyc it sucked so bad.

My Jewish American White ( hereinafter referred to as "JAW" and incorporated herein by this reference) brother! I hope you and all your brethren enjoy this fine Sabbath Day.

Submitted by PCinSD on June 21, 2020 - 11:20am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Questions for those who think that suburbia is a superior lifestyle:

Do you ever go on vacation to another suburbia? Except for Disney or to visit relatives?

If suburban sprawl is what consumers demand, then why not let the free market dictate what gets built? Dense developments would not be financially viable for lack of residents.

Fuck off Karen.

Submitted by Coronita on June 21, 2020 - 12:47pm.

Most people actually have real friends, real families, and real relationships take real vacations, not the fake ones that people pretend to take just to grab a few doctored photos to post on Instagram and brag how great their fake but zero substance life really is on social media. Most fun vacations, don't scream "I need to stay in the city". In fact most of the time, that's quite the opposite, and the best ones are usually the ones that people don't spend the majority of the time taking selfies. Most vacations are fun by itself by the people you are with. Something that one day hopefully more people will understand.

Come to think about it, every single time we went on a skiing trip in a friend group to Squaw, or Jackson Hole, or Whistler it was fun staying in a dumpy cabin. And you wouldn't be looking to stay in a city of you are visiting a remote place like Grandn Canyon, Lake Powell, Antelope Canyon Valley, for instance. Or if you go up to Sacramento for water rafting, ditto. If vacation, you mean only city type scenary, well if that floats your boat, but you are missing out on a boatload of things. personally, imho all cities start looking the same with a Starbucks on every corner no matter which city you go, lol.

Submitted by svelte on June 21, 2020 - 12:45pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Questions for those who think that suburbia is a superior lifestyle:

Do you ever go on vacation to another suburbia? Except for Disney or to visit relatives?

I'm not sure the relevance of this question. Are you insinuating we desire to live where we go on vacation? I can tell you that isn't true for sure. I like to visit San Francisco, but I would never want to live there.

FlyerInHi wrote:

If suburban sprawl is what consumers demand, then why not let the free market dictate what gets built? Dense developments would not be financially viable for lack of residents.

Did anyone on here argue against free markets dictating what gets built? Don't think I heard anyone say that.

Submitted by Coronita on June 21, 2020 - 12:50pm.

Speaking of time off. Happy Father's Day everyone.

It's a miracle. My kid wants to do Potato Chip this afternoon unlike most times, when it's usually the other way around.

Submitted by PCinSD on June 21, 2020 - 1:16pm.

Coronita wrote:
Speaking of time off. Happy Father's Day everyone.

It's a miracle. My kid wants to do Potato Chip this afternoon unlike most times, when it's usually the other way around.


I'm now craving potato salad. Off to flirt with death.

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