December housing graphs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 16, 2022 - 6:10pm



























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Submitted by gzz on January 17, 2022 - 2:58pm.

Inventory didn’t just hit a new all time low, but smashed the record low by more than 25%!

I find it hard to understand sellers who keep listing at only 20%-30% above 2019/2020 prices. Demand is there, and will be buttressed by 2022’s new mich higher conforming loan limits. Though jumbo loans are really cheap now too with barely any spread.

Submitted by Escoguy on January 17, 2022 - 8:25pm.

gzz wrote:
Inventory didn’t just hit a new all time low, but smashed the record low by more than 25%!

I find it hard to understand sellers who keep listing at only 20%-30% above 2019/2020 prices. Demand is there, and will be buttressed by 2022’s new mich higher conforming loan limits. Though jumbo loans are really cheap now too with barely any spread.

"Affordable" inventory is much less than than the chart above indicates:
If you go with 3BR >1500 sf, for less than 1.3M, there are about 300 homes/condos on the market.

If you up that to 1750 sf, drops to about 230.

At 4BR, 2000 sf+ about 125 homes below 1.3M. There are a few in the 700s but only about 40 below 800K.

I honestly never imagined a market this tight on inventory.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 17, 2022 - 9:22pm.

Any one who said they did is kidding themselves. This is unprecedented.

Submitted by Escoguy on January 17, 2022 - 10:40pm.

sdrealtor wrote:
Any one who said they did is kidding themselves. This is unprecedented.

SD,
Just doing a sanity check here.
Are my numbers off? I.e. as far as 3BR :1.3M 1750 sf.

I'm boxing in an area from 76 south to the border and about 20 miles inland.
I'm seeing about 200 houses+condos. I don't want to drink my own cool-aid if not real.

Not that houses above 1.3M are unimportant but if most transactions are above that level, that would be a major shift.

Submitted by sdrealtor on January 18, 2022 - 12:13am.

Would have to run them but wouldn’t surprise me. I ran 4br 3ba 2600 sf plus up to 1.75 in Carlsbad and 92078 earlier today. Had a few fingers to spare on one hand. Gotta get better

Submitted by SD investor on January 19, 2022 - 4:39pm.

I think we will go back to the market of 2017 and 2018 soon. Affordability is getting out of hand with the increase in mortgage rates. There may be a rush to buy before rates go up further, but soon after I expect to see continued low inventory with monthly payment going up moderately but with little or no price appreciation starting this summer. Sellers are not motivated to sell, and buyers are discouraged.

The new "new normal" will now be 1.5 months of inventory. Interesting to see if what happens at the next recession and whether the FED will act as aggressively as this time around.

Submitted by Escoguy on January 20, 2022 - 9:27pm.

SD investor wrote:
I think we will go back to the market of 2017 and 2018 soon. Affordability is getting out of hand with the increase in mortgage rates. There may be a rush to buy before rates go up further, but soon after I expect to see continued low inventory with monthly payment going up moderately but with little or no price appreciation starting this summer. Sellers are not motivated to sell, and buyers are discouraged.

The new "new normal" will now be 1.5 months of inventory. Interesting to see if what happens at the next recession and whether the FED will act as aggressively as this time around.

If the tax code were changed to lower the depreciation recapture to the normal capital gains rate, I'd consider selling one.

Submitted by SD investor on January 23, 2022 - 7:53pm.

I 1031 exchanged one a few months ago. With prop 13, it is worth never selling unless I am in a pinch. Pretty much everything is financed as 30 yr fixed. my expenses are essentially fixed so I don’t care if rates jump or prices fall as I am never selling unless prop 13 gets repealed.

Submitted by urbanrealtor on February 8, 2022 - 5:43pm.

@Rich:
Is the first chart nominal or real?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 8, 2022 - 9:28pm.

urbanrealtor wrote:
@Rich:
Is the first chart nominal or real?

Nominal... inflation adjustment only makes an appearance on the "San Diego Single Family Home Prices, 1-Yr Change" graph.

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