December Case-Shiller Graphs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 25, 2009 - 9:29pm

Below are a few quick graphs of the December numbers... I will note that for the second month in a row, the high tier fell most on a month-to-month basis (-2.4%).

I should also note that the tier cutoffs keep getting lower -- moreso than would be accounted for by just price declines -- because most of the activity is concentrated in lower-priced properties. (The cutoffs, you may recall, are arrived at by separating all the home sales into thirds by price, so the tiers will drop as more low-priced stuff sells).

Anyway, here's a chart from the peak:

And from the beginning of the index.

And then the same two charts adjusted for CPI inflation:

Here's a new one, suggested by a reader. It is the trend in year-over-year change, like what I do with the job numbers. While prices are still falling, the rate at which they are doing so has decelerated. A little.

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Submitted by Huckleberry on February 26, 2009 - 10:20am.

Yup, the graphs speak for themselves. Price decrease velocity may be slowing but value is still be eroded quickly and affecting all price ranges.

I have a feeling velocity will pick up again when the mid and higher priced owners realize they are not going to be getting much of a "deal" out of this stimulus package, related to mortgage write-downs.

Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.

Submitted by Sandi Egan on February 26, 2009 - 3:16pm.

Huckleberry wrote:
Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.

Could you please provide a link?

Submitted by David J on February 26, 2009 - 3:39pm.

Sandi Egan wrote:
Huckleberry wrote:
Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.

Could you please provide a link?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB12355963...

Submitted by davelj on February 26, 2009 - 5:57pm.

David J wrote:
Sandi Egan wrote:
Huckleberry wrote:
Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction.

Could you please provide a link?

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123559630127675581.html?mod=article-outset-box

So, if you earn over $209K/year, you lose 20% of your mortgage interest deduction. That's not happy times - don't get me wrong - but it's not exactly a killer, either.

Submitted by CricketOnTheHearth on February 26, 2009 - 6:03pm.

So judging by the graphs (particularly the CPI-adjusted one) it looks like we have almost blown off the bubble, and gotten "down" to the secular peak. (I'm comparing to the previous peak of ~1990.)

The rate-of-change graph is an interesting one, it reminds me of something Robert Campbell would do. He very much studies the momentum of changes (in foreclosures, etc)

Submitted by CricketOnTheHearth on February 26, 2009 - 6:10pm.

Huckleberry wrote:

Case in point, the Obama administration today announced a significant reduction in the mortgage interest rate deduction...

... for couples making over $208,000 a year. Their deduction goes from 33% of the interest to 28% of the interest.

Shoot, that's just a nibble-- and doesn't affect small fry like me at all.

Just goes to show you, you always gotta ask, "Taxes on who??

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