December 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2016 - 8:52am

December is always an unusual month in that closed sales typically increase (presumably people trying to jam the deal through before year-end), while pendings sales drop (presumably due to holiday disruption):

This year, the decline in pendings was unusually large, with a 23% decline from November's number.  I wouldn't make too much of that data point alone, because the data can be pretty noisy.  But as a result, even though inventory declined in December, the all-important months of inventory figure rose quite a bit for the month:

It's still lower than the past 2 years, though, and still reasonably low on a longer-term basis:

So unless the decline in pendings is a real thing that persists, and not a one-month aberration, I would still say that the SD market is pretty undersupplied and supportive of potential near-term price increases.  Let's see how the new year plays out.

Graph-fest below....

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Submitted by XBoxBoy on January 10, 2016 - 6:50pm.

As always, thanks for putting this info together.

Submitted by Escoguy on January 16, 2016 - 11:56pm.

Background on sales swing in Dec:

Submitted by gzz on January 17, 2016 - 1:29am.

Thanks Rich.

2016 will be a big year of San Diego real estate based on these factors:

1. Unemployment below 5%

2. Cheap gasoline and natural gas for heat and electricity supports disposable income. Beyond just the savings, it creates an optimistic psychological boost.

3. Spillover from the Bay Area, which has outperformed San Diego by about 30% and is still booming

4. Rates still are low and affordability is still strong compared with historic levels

5. Very little new construction, especially near job centers. Nothing like the Mission Valley and Downtown condo booms of past years

6. Inventory levels in line with prior years that saw >10% rises

7. The era of state and local budget cuts seems to be over

Submitted by spdrun on January 17, 2016 - 9:17am.


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