Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market

User Forum Topic
Submitted by zk on March 20, 2020 - 8:48am

I would like to hear some opinions and ideas on the effect of all this social distancing on the economy and the stock market.

In California, we basically just shut down the economy. Right? Am I wrong about that? Basically you can't even commute to your job unless it's in one of...

16 critical infrastructure sectors whose assets, systems, and networks, whether physical or virtual, are considered so vital to the United States that their incapacitation...[blah blah blah]

In most of the rest of the country, most businesses are suffering terribly just by virtue of people staying home.

When has an economy been shut down this suddenly and to this degree before?

In my completely-uninformed and probably-wrong opinion, it seems like the stock market should be down more than 30% from the overvalued-to-start-with (in my uninformed opinion) highs of a few weeks ago.

I get that the social distancing should only last a month or four or five. But does that mean the effects on the economy won't be long-lasting and drastic?

The stock market seems to have settled for this brief time at around 30% down.

Who thinks it'll go up or down from here and why?

Will there be a recession? If there is, will it be severe?

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 20, 2020 - 9:18am.

A pigg posted this. It mentions industries that are not shut down, outside of the 16 identified by the fed as critical. But I don't see reference to those in the actual order.

Still, I'm going by this so I can go to Home Depot, if they are open, and continue my remodel project to get my Mom's house sold.

https://covid19.ca.gov/stay-home-except-...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 20, 2020 - 9:49am.

Home Depot should still be open,

You can go out to exercise (so I am thinking walks on the beach still an option), build homes, eat drive through etc...

I am starting to think, give it another week people will just start figuring out how to work around this.

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 20, 2020 - 10:08am.

That is the billion dollar question. Not sure the governor asked it before instituting the SAH order.

Flatten the curve not the economy !

I think it will be more than a blip but not sure if it will be entirely recessionary since the economy was in decent shape to begin. The gubmint will start the money pump, too. I think the stock market will be undecided (long-term flat but volatile) for several months before coming back.

Interesting to note, I have a car loan I have been paying off for 3 years. The bank sent an email saying there would be no payments, no interest for 60 days. Things like that can help the general economy significantly. It make this more of a pause than a crash.

Two things I believe about the human race.

1) When left to be free, we are incredibly adaptable. I believe we can flex around this. That being said, I think the SAH order will hamper that significantly. If that doesn't lift soon, could be recessionary.

2) People are social animals social distancing is not a sustainable solution. I get that we need to flatten the curve but I wasn't joking when I said the cure is worse than the disease. People will eventually choose to be social (especially if the threat is seen only in the news and they don't personally know people dying) either by explicit demands to get the rules reversed or by disobeying the rules, and let the virus run its course.

In the US, some 2.8 million people die every year (2017 figure). Worst case estimates, without social distancing, are that 50K - 200K people will die in the US from the virus. I am not sure what the economic repercussions are of an extra 50k - 200K dying would be but it doesn't seem significant.

Don't take that to mean that I think the economy is more important than people dying. Keep in mind, being economically strong helps fight the virus. Also, Recessions and depressions kill people, too.

Put all that together and I think people will get back to a pretty normal life, economically speaking, in a couple months and the economy will be a bit scarred but in-tact.

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 20, 2020 - 10:10am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Home Depot should still be open.

Their website say that people rely on them in times of crisis for critical things - fixing the heater or plumbing problems, for example. So I am hoping they stay open, or at least deliver.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 20, 2020 - 10:16am.

I think I read on the ca.gov website that hardware stores and home building are exempt. (biz that can remain open).

On the plus side after being shut in a few weeks people will be ready to go out and spend.

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 10:20am.

Apparently gamestop thinks they are mission critical retailer too. Lol

https://www.slashgear.com/gamestop-consi...

I guess people NEED to have video games.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 20, 2020 - 10:42am.

Cannabis Too.

So is Jack in the Box Drive-through.

Amazon is trying to hire 100K people.

https://abcnews.go.com/Health/cannabis-s...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 10:37am.

zk wrote:
Will there be a recession? If there is, will it be severe?

The recession is already here.

Submitted by svelte on March 20, 2020 - 10:40am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
I think I read on the ca.gov website that hardware stores and home building are exempt. (biz that can remain open).

I hope so! I have about a half-dozen spring yard projects that are in various states of completion that I'd like to wrap up! I can't do anything without at least one Home Depot run though...

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 10:49am.

Well Las Vegas moved to a drive thru stripper peep show. lol

https://www.reviewjournal.com/business/l...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 10:52am.

Marijuana dispensaries are considered essential services — haha. Americans gotta have their drugs.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 20, 2020 - 10:53am.

Apparently My company (as we deal in communication products), is exempt (just got company email), so our manufacturing people can still go into the office.

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:08am.

A Chinese Pandemic Flu is all so predictable every 50+ years lol

Trump and Biden both saying stock buyback prohibited from 2020 Chinese Flu relief effort. Good.

Time to go out to get a cup of coffee and enjoy the sun that just came out in San Diego. Beautiful Day.

Submitted by svelte on March 20, 2020 - 11:09am.

zk wrote:

The stock market seems to have settled for this brief time at around 30% down.

Who thinks it'll go up or down from here and why?

Will there be a recession? If there is, will it be severe?

I've been thinking about this. All total, I had about 30% of my money on the sideline. When is the right time to move some of it in?

I'm not sure if what the govt is doing will influence it much. I think what will have more of an effect is (1) if groceries remain available, (2) the number of deaths, (3) the rate of death escalation, and (4) whether Italy deaths peak and start receding.

If any one of those goes terribly wrong, watch out!

There will be a recession...it could be quick and brief, or it could kill the rest of the year. I don't think it will be clear which one until about May.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:16am.

So how come you didn’t predict it.
Barely weeks ago you ridiculed any idea of recession. If anything, recessions occur in cycles and are predictable every 7 to 10 years..... when an expansion lasts longer than a decade, well.....

Submitted by svelte on March 20, 2020 - 11:21am.

Coronita wrote:

Trump and Biden both saying stock buyback prohibited from 2020 Chinese Flu relief effort. Good.
.

I think the govt should buy the stocks that the company bought back instead of giving them loans...then the company can buy them back from the govt when they recover!

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:27am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
So how come you didn’t predict it.
Barely weeks ago you ridiculed any idea of recession. If anything, recessions occur in cycles and are predictable every 7 to 10 years..... when an expansion lasts longer than a decade, well.....

Well you were oh so predictable about a recession because of Trump. Both you and ZK are so obsessed with trump that you desperately need to be correct. For some reason you and ZK are so obsessed with trump that's all you care about. Even though the situation we are in had nothing to do with all your predictions you were saying would happen.

That's why before this virus really took over the world, both you and ZK disappeared because everything was going on track with this economy and you literally had nothing to say to could support both of your obsession with this Trump hate.
And low and behold, now that the world is crumbling, you guys are all giddy that suddenly everything supports the hate trump thesis. Even to the point of blindsiding your perception that everyone that disagrees with you must like trump.

A few weeks ago, the Coronavirus was, according to China, "contained". Unless of course it wasn't. It probably started a lot earlier than officially recognized because some of my colleagues at a precious company was traveling back and forth between China and Korea already had some weird Flu like symptom as early as late December. But they all tested negative here in the US because there was no publicized info on this virus from China. They had all the symptoms of this virus, 104f fever , really stuff soreness, breathing issues, and yet they tested negative for the common flu. So in hindsight, this seems to make sense. This Chinese Flu has been circulating in the US a lot longer than people anticipated. Some already had it. And unfortunately you really cant test for it now after you had it 2 months ago.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:29am.

Nothing to do with Trump. I anticipated a cyclical recession.
As I said many times, I believe in buying real estate only after a recession has been announced. Match the economic cycles to the stages of your life. Including the current recession, I had maybe 2 cycles left, and that’s it.

In expensive markets like San Diego, not buying near the cyclical bottom is just plain dumb.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:35am.

Flu, long post for nothing. You said “predictable” yet you didn’t predict shit.

Did you see Mark Esper on TV? The military is supposed to have sophisticated intelligence units. He was asked why he didn’t see it coming...... of course he equivocated, haha.

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:35am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Nothing to do with Trump. I anticipated a cyclical recession.
As I said many times, I believe in buying real estate only after a recession has been announced. Match the economic cycles to the stages of your life. Including the current recession, I had maybe 2 cycles left, and that’s it.

In expensive markets like San Diego, not buying near the cyclical bottom is just plain dumb.

That's 100% bullshit Brian.

The fact you got kicked of this board, came back as FlyerInHi, denied it so long, and have been proven through multiple plants my many that made you self-admit it's you, pretty much destroys any sort of credibility to the contrary. The Friend(s) that posted from the account put it succiently. You come across as a progressive elitist when in reality you sound more like a Trump-single-tooth bumpkin. You complain about getting personal, but that's all you do and you get all butt hurt when it turns around on you. Lol.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:36am.

Personal where?
You’re are personal, flu.

Submitted by zk on March 20, 2020 - 11:40am.

Coronita wrote:
Both you and ZK are so obsessed with trump...

Let's see. I'm obsessed with trump, an extremely powerful man who is a great danger to our country and to my family.

You're obsessed with Brian.

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:45am.

It was great when most of your almost bi daily progressive facade rant bullshit dumpster diving threads every other day stopped briefly stopped when the economy was doing well because there actually was some decent real estate and stock discussions in the absence of all the "Trump is an asshole" thread that ZK was obsessed with resurrecting over and over again and progressive blah blah blah bullshit that you resurrect every other day.
It was almost as annoying as the "Newsom is an asshole" thread that what's his face always starts. But pretty much all of you are all they same. You are all miserable individuals that let politics consume most of your life.

It would be great if you guys locked yourself in closet and slug it out because I think the rest of us don't really give a shit about other extremes. Some of us actually care about what's going on, like the hundreds of hourly workers that are suddenly going to be unemployed. Or the several indoviduals that do field support that are soon going to have severely reduced hours..
not because of Trump... but because of this Chinese Flu.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:46am.

Flu, Just read your own words on this thread. You are the one all butt hurt and personal. You brought up Trump.

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:48am.

Brian, if you want mentally masturbate during this crisis. Go right ahead.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 20, 2020 - 11:50am.

All the invectives are coming from you, flu. Personal attacks much?

Submitted by Coronita on March 20, 2020 - 11:55am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
All the invectives are coming from you, flu. Personal attacks much?

says the fake guy with the fake name that started with a personal reply who now cries like you're a victim. In real life Brian, good that you don't need to start practicing social distancing . I think before this virus, I'm guessing people already were practicing social distancing a long time before. I can see why.

Submitted by zk on March 20, 2020 - 11:57am.

Coronita wrote:
You are all miserable individuals that let politics consume most of your life.

Using any standard you could possibly have the information to be judging that by, you are letting Brian consume your life far more than I'm letting politics consume mine.

Submitted by TheBrianNarrative on March 20, 2020 - 11:59am.

not all Brian. You are 100% bullshit. In fact you are more like trump and different from him

Submitted by svelte on March 20, 2020 - 12:01pm.

You two!

Go to your corner!

And don't come out until you can talk nicely to each other!

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