Coronavirus Endgame

User Forum Topic
Submitted by teaboy on March 22, 2020 - 3:39am

Is anyone else utterly disappointed with the lack of intellectual rigor in most clickbait “news” articles these days?
Most articles don’t even try to question how this might all play out, and others lazily conclude with the optimistic, but vapid, “we will adapt and thrive.”

Here’s one article which does a fair attempt:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Also, Rich, your comments in the “Coronavirus/Economy/Stock Market” thread on this site are well-measured vs the typical hyperbole I read about stocks.
https://www.piggington.com/coronavirusec...

Trouble is, with the rapidly evolving situation we’re in, the shelf-life on these articles is quite short, and there’s just so much chaff to sort from the wheat.
Could I invite other Piggs to share links to their most thoughtful or thought provoking articles on the medium/long term outlook or “Coronavirus Endgame” over the next days/weeks?

Tb

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 22, 2020 - 8:02am.

IMO Sun comes out (hopefully soon) and we start getting 80 degree days, case numbers reduce drastically and everyone goes back to work wondering if what we did to ourselves was worth it.

Or at least could have been accomplished with a lot less drastic measures.

Submitted by Hobie on March 22, 2020 - 8:07am.

And what to do with a ton of tp and a freezer full of pizza. :)

Submitted by phaster on March 22, 2020 - 12:34pm.

teaboy wrote:
I invite other Piggs to share links to their most thoughtful or thought provoking articles on the medium/long term outlook or “Coronavirus Endgame” over the next days/weeks?

looking at the events reported in the news,...

Quote:

Americans Coping With the Coronavirus Are Clogging Toilets

Sewage systems and toilets are backing up as consumers clean their homes with disinfectant wipes and turn to paper towels, napkins and baby wipes to cope with the lack of toilet paper.

www.nytimes.com/2020/03/21/us/flushable-...

the end game for many does not look good since common sense, critical thinking and "calm" courage to face the harsh reality seems to be missing

PS if this was a baseball game,... I'd guess we are at the start of the 3rd inning

1st,... china "gets hit"
2nd,... iran, italy "gets hit"
3rd,... USA "gets hit"

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2020 - 2:24pm.

Hobie wrote:
And what to do with a ton of tp and a freezer full of pizza. :)

Can't return them at Costco
ha ha ha.

https://www.tmz.com/2020/03/22/costco-to...

Submitted by teaboy on March 22, 2020 - 4:02pm.

“ Coronavirus Will Change the World Permanently. Here’s How.”
https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.politic...

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2020 - 4:09pm.

Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronaviru...

Submitted by Coronita on March 22, 2020 - 5:15pm.

.

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 22, 2020 - 6:43pm.

Coronita wrote:
Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

That site had some suspect numbers the last few days.
Number of critical cases in the US was stuck at 64 and at one point today's New Deaths was larger than yesterday's Critical Cases number. I sent them a note.Seems they updated it. 2% of active cases now critical.

US data Yesterday showed a possible inflection point on 3/20. The first break in the exponential growth. Not saying it will continue to break but something to watch.

Going to be a few weeks before those numbers can start to look good because of the 14-day incubation period and the amount of time it takes to shed the virus. Right now all the cases going into "closed" status are the early ones, which were likely people in very bad condition who waited to long to seek treatment.

I'm not sure that data is very useful given they aren't testing random samples of the population. Maybe CDC using this "test only the infected" to heighten people's acceptance of self-quarantine plans.

The testing process isn't a random sample by any means so there is no way we can infer death rates from these at all.

I read somewhere that the 1.4% death rate in China was 1.4% of people who showed symptoms and tested positive. I can't find that link. We have no information about how many people who might be infected but show now symptoms.

I think an endgame needs better testing and that stay-at-home orders are a result of not having good testing and reasonable random-sample statistics.

I still think the end game is this looks like the flu with a deadlier start-up year. I think it will be seasonal, fairly pervasive, immunizations available, better treatment plan, death-rate down near 0.1% of INFECTED people and much worse for the old.

It is the birth of a new flu, which we have been living and dying with for decades so I don't think it will change our life much at all, come Summer.

Submitted by svelte on March 22, 2020 - 6:34pm.

Coronita wrote:
Endgame is when these charts look better

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I stumbled across that link yesterday! I like it a lot.

I sort of feel like the warming of the weather might help some, but it is basically a matter of having enough people catch it that everybody's been through it. The reason isolation helps is because this flu is particularly nasty and we need to space our those needing medical attention so they don't flood hospitals all at once.

Looking at the 1918 Spanish Flu in San Diego, first case was Sept 26 and by Dec 31 it was almost gone...cold weather and all. Thinking it through my opinion is that all the people that were going to be exposed had been by that point and that's why the numbers started to drop. I'm of the opinion that the same thing needs to happen this time.

As far as the economic damage, stocks were already in a freefall in 1918 due to WW1, so it is hard to separate out the effect of the Spanish Flu. Stocks did make a recovery once both were over (they both ended within a month or two of each other) but another recession hit in 1920. Any lessons for us here from that? It is really hard to tell.

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 22, 2020 - 6:41pm.

I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don't really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.

Submitted by Hobie on March 23, 2020 - 3:12am.

This guy discusses sample data and its implications. Worth 10min of your time.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_conti...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 23, 2020 - 8:52am.

sdduuuude wrote:
I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don't really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.

The best map by a Johns Hopkins professor, and her grad student who’s in China.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 23, 2020 - 10:44am.

Seriously Flyer get off the China thing really seriously.

I think he was referring to more a local city by city map.

Undoubtedly it would show most cases in very high density locations.

It would be interesting to show map of deaths caused by poverty in the aftermath.

Submitted by Coronita on March 23, 2020 - 3:38pm.

https://www.epi.org/blog/every-state-wil...

Different map.... Economic impact by state

Submitted by Coronita on March 23, 2020 - 7:09pm.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/intel-amd...

Looks like CPU chip industry operating at full capacity, guessing lists of people buying computers now they need to work from home.

Submitted by bibsoconner on March 23, 2020 - 8:07pm.

The original post asked for "rigor" and "thoughtfulness". Here's my attempt at that:

It all ends sooner than people expected. The world returns to normal. The markets recover. Slowly but surely, unemployment goes down. A concerted effort by the world's nations is made to monitor for outbreaks of new diseases. The only unexplained phenomena is that for 2 months or so there is a rash of toilet papering houses the likes of which the world has never seen before. It's as if millions of people suddenly found themselves in possession of more toilet paper than they could possibly use in lifetime.

Submitted by Coronita on March 23, 2020 - 9:14pm.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/...

So here's a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can't make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not "prevent" this thing from happening and it wasn't an issue about moral hazard. So if that's the case, I don't anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 23, 2020 - 10:57pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
sdduuuude wrote:
I wish someone would do map showing the # of cases as a percent of population by county. These absolute numbers don't really show which areas are the worst off.

Or a growth rate by county.

The best map by a Johns Hopkins professor, and her grad student who’s in China.
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map-faq.html

That is exactly the chart I don't want to see - showing absolute numbers. It makes it look like the entire US is sick when, in fact it is only one hundredth of one percent and the circle from New York encompases 10 other states. It looks like someone's first time using Tableau.

I don't assume that more densely populated areas would look worse on a percentage basis - which is why I want to see it on a percentage basis. San Diego seems in good shape, but how are we compared to other cities with our population density ? I wish I knew.

South of the equator looking to be in good shape - is it weather ? Or limited contact with China and Italy ?

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 23, 2020 - 11:01pm.

Coronita wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here's a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can't make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not "prevent" this thing from happening and it wasn't an issue about moral hazard. So if that's the case, I don't anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).

Banks don't want to get a bunch of property in their portfolio now. They would be wise to do this on their own. Cal Coast Credit union sent us an email last week telling us we didn't have to pay on our car loan for 60 days and there would be no interest accrued.

Maybe PMI kicks in for those who have it ? Not sure. I don't have it.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 24, 2020 - 6:23am.

sdduuuude wrote:

I don't assume that more densely populated areas would look worse on a percentage basis - which is why I want to see it on a percentage basis.

South of the equator looking to be in good shape - is it weather ? Or limited contact with China and Italy ?

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use "chloroquine".

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.

Submitted by ltsddd on March 24, 2020 - 8:02am.

Coronita wrote:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-24/pelosi-s-2-5-trillion-virus-bill-delays-mortgage-car-payments

So here's a question. Do you think our government should provide a moratorium on mortgages during this virus or not?

If so, how is this different than back during the housing crisis of 2009 many piggs were saying we should just let people lose their homes who can't make mortgage payments?

Personally, imho this time is different in that many people could not "prevent" this thing from happening and it wasn't an issue about moral hazard. So if that's the case, I don't anticipate a sudden wave of panic selling, except maybe in places where the recovery would take longer than average.

That, our everyone sues China. They have money :).

Yes. I agree that this is a different scenario. If big banks are getting a stimulus package b/c of the coronavirus, it should be attached with the condition that the average joes should also benefit from it in the form of payment deferment. In the near term this is how I see it's going to play out:

- stock markets are going to go side-way, but once the virus is "dealt" with it will be a quick recovery (the small potatoes are probably screwed but the warren buffetts and ackmans of the world will swoop in for the deep discounts)

- employment is going to be bad. If companies feel the need to lay off people then it'll take them some time to stabilize to start growing again. My guess is it's going to be bad for the next 2 years or so?

- housing will see a down tick. This virus not only inflict major damage to the world's economies but also to the psychology of the people. Once this is over, people will be hoarding cash.

I am feeling a lot more optimistic today than a few weeks ago now that our gov't (fed, state and locally) finally shows some leadership.

Submitted by Coronita on March 24, 2020 - 11:03am.
Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 24, 2020 - 11:16am.

The-Shoveler wrote:

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use "chloroquine".

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 24, 2020 - 12:15pm.

Duplicate

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 24, 2020 - 12:40pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use "chloroquine".

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/24/dumbest-s-desantis-takes-heat-as-he-goes-his-own-way-on-coronavirus-1268818

A Lot of people say we had coronavirus in SoCal since January so it will be interesting to see how Florida plays out.

We are not NYC
The majority of people do not jump on a bus/subway etc.. with 30-50 people on it everyday

Submitted by FlyerInHi on March 24, 2020 - 12:53pm.

Well, San Diego closed the parks this morning. I went for a little run anyway.....

Boris Johnson caved and issued lockdown orders. We will see if Florida and the other states will resist.

Submitted by Coronita on March 24, 2020 - 1:33pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:

Densely populated areas that primarily use public transportation seem to be hot spots.

A lot of places in south america use "chloroquine".

SoCal did not need these drastic measures IMO and we should stop them now.

DeSantis is taking a lot of heat for his lighter approach.
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/03/24/dumbest-s-desantis-takes-heat-as-he-goes-his-own-way-on-coronavirus-1268818

A Lot of people say we had coronavirus in SoCal since January so it will be interesting to see how Florida plays out.

We are not NYC
The majority of people do not jump on a bus/subway etc.. with 30-50 people on it everyday

Time will tell. CA and WA first in, first out. Not much you can do except trying to avoid getting sick at the same time everyone else is. And when you do get sick, be as prepared with what you need

Submitted by sdduuuude on March 24, 2020 - 6:34pm.

San Diego has broken out of the exponential curve.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/new...

Submitted by Coronita on March 25, 2020 - 7:05am.

sdduuuude wrote:
San Diego has broken out of the exponential curve.

https://www.sandiegouniontribune.com/news/liveblog/coronavirus-live-updates-march-23

Let us hope that. Let's hope that we don't end up like NYC
I suspect we won't due to a number of reasons, but time will tell.

https://www.sfchronicle.com/health/amp/N...

Submitted by The-Shoveler on March 25, 2020 - 7:34am.

California budget surplus likely to be wiped out.

I would say it is highly unlikely SoCal will see anything remotely like the CV numbers in NYC

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