Contact Tracing

User Forum Topic
Submitted by Hobie on May 21, 2020 - 1:43pm

Govenor Newsom is ramping up hiring contact tracers. CDC is promoting this collection of data. While it makes sense on the surface, by rattling the cage it will generate a ton of 'new' contacts as potential carriers. They will be asked to quarantine.

It is going from a single test of one person to a huge sample of 'possible' positive carriers. Seriously, these venn diagrams are going to sweep damn near everyone up into having recent contact pool.

Guessing if several show up at a single workplace, State will require entire workplace or venue to close. It seems like this is creating a viscous circle. Places are allowed to open now, only to be closed again in weeks.

Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 2:16pm.

Hobie wrote:

Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.

That's like saying, "convince me there's no god."

Your theory, like god, is a ridiculous fantasy with no evidence to support it. If you need to be "convinced" against something like that, you probably believe it enough already that you can't be convinced against it.

And besides, what evidence would there be for a lack of god or a lack of political motivation in this case?

How about this: Convince me that it is politically motivated. Using some kind of evidence.

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2020 - 2:17pm.

Keep your phone GPS off IMO.

Submitted by ucodegen on May 21, 2020 - 2:19pm.

It is possible, or it is a panic'd response to the situation and the need to have things open (else the state coffers bleed massively red). The thing that really gets me is that they are not doing statistical testing (except the University in Corvallis, Oregon) and even the University in Corvallis, Oregon is not doing the antibody test to identify those that have had the disease and recovered.

Another thing that the media is not accurately covering is 'what is immunity'.. they take the position that it would be impossible to get the disease for which one has immunity after they get immunity. That is not true. If a person is exposed to a disease for a sufficiently long time and in sufficient strength, they will still get the disease. They may get weaker symptoms - but a person with 'immunity' is not free to roll around in a vat filled with the disease..

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 2:21pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Keep your phone GPS off IMO.

Yeah, and don't wear a mask, either.

Fuck everybody else but ME!!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2020 - 2:43pm.

Seems like a design to keep everyone in perpetual lock down.

At some point I could see a revolt.

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 2:47pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Seems like a design to keep everyone in perpetual lock down.

At some point I could see a revolt.

And what is your theory as to the motive to keep everyone in perpetual lock down?

Submitted by Hobie on May 21, 2020 - 2:55pm.

Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2020 - 3:00pm.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Keep your phone GPS off IMO.

Maybe it’s time to get an old style phone. I must have an old Nokia somewhere,

Submitted by ltsddd on May 21, 2020 - 3:01pm.

Contacts tracing has proven to be an effective method to keep the virus at bay. Not sure how practical and expensive it is to carry out here in the U.S., but the most successful countries in Asia in dealing with the virus employed similar strategy.

"By mid-March, Vietnam was sending everyone who entered the country - and anyone within the country who'd had contact with a confirmed case - to quarantine centres for 14 days.

Costs were mostly covered by the government, though accommodation was not necessarily luxurious. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-5262...

"Korea’s strategy of targeted testing and aggressive contact tracing has been held up as a successful example of how to contain the virus — even as other countries have been slow to adopt it."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14...

We never know what will work and what won't. But at least these countries had a plan and acted upon it.

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 3:10pm.

Hobie wrote:
Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.

So you have no evidence, then? You just made a wild assumption and you're convinced of it until convinced otherwise?

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 21, 2020 - 3:12pm.

Maybe moot point, all you need is a leader declare it.

Los Angles now saying July re-opening.

Just about all small biz will be BK by then IMO.
(The State not far behind).

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2020 - 3:13pm.

ltsddd wrote:
Contacts tracing has proven to be an effective method to keep the virus at bay. Not sure how practical and expensive it is to carry out here in the U.S., but the most successful countries in Asia in dealing with the virus employed similar strategy.

"By mid-March, Vietnam was sending everyone who entered the country - and anyone within the country who'd had contact with a confirmed case - to quarantine centres for 14 days.

Costs were mostly covered by the government, though accommodation was not necessarily luxurious. "

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-5262...

"Korea’s strategy of targeted testing and aggressive contact tracing has been held up as a successful example of how to contain the virus — even as other countries have been slow to adopt it."

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/05/14...

We never know what will work and what won't. But at least these countries had a plan and acted upon it.

I’m amazed that countries like Vietnam has achieved such excellent results.

Submitted by utcsox on May 21, 2020 - 3:18pm.

Hobie wrote:
Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.

Unfortunately, lefties spend money, too. Ultimately, if they don't feel comfortable going out, there will be bad economy. Don't believe me? See how Georgia is doing after opening up a month a go.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2020 - 3:21pm.

How’s the Apple/Google app going? Seem like we’re falling behind other countries in contract tracing.

Trump was touting the app months ago.

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 3:27pm.

What a lot of people don't seem to understand is that testing and contact tracing are steps towards opening the economy without unnecessary deaths.

Opening the economy without trying to reduce the spread of the coronavirus has the potential to cause two problems. For the economy. One, a lot of people (people who understand how contagious and dangerous the virus is, not only to themselves but to others) will continue to stay home. Two, a lot of people will get sick and die. That's not good for the economy, either. When people start dying at higher rates (which is virtually inevitable if we open the economy without the necessary precautions and restrictions), then more people will want to stay at home. Not good for the economy.

If you want the economy to improve, you should be rooting for testing and contact tracing.

Submitted by ltsddd on May 21, 2020 - 3:50pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
How’s the Apple/Google app going? Seem like we’re falling behind other countries in contract tracing.

Trump was touting the app months ago.

Trump was saying the virus will go away when the weather heats up. That was our country's plan to deal with the virus.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2020 - 4:09pm.

zk wrote:
What a lot of people don't seem to understand is that testing and contact tracing are steps towards opening the economy without unnecessary deaths.

Opening the economy without trying to reduce the spread of the coronavirus has the potential to cause two problems. For the economy. One, a lot of people (people who understand how contagious and dangerous the virus is, not only to themselves but to others) will continue to stay home. Two, a lot of people will get sick and die. That's not good for the economy, either. When people start dying at higher rates (which is virtually inevitable if we open the economy without the necessary precautions and restrictions), then more people will want to stay at home. Not good for the economy.

If you want the economy to improve, you should be rooting for testing and contact tracing.

Yes I agree, But I am American I am for freedom first.
Memorial Day is coming. Americans want their freedom back.

Maybe we should have just kept the economy “raring” and let it rip.
Sweden seems to have done ok. I should extrapolate the deaths by population and see how it would’ve worked fir us.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/21/health/sw...

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 21, 2020 - 4:13pm.

One of the first contact-tracing apps violates its own privacy policy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technolog...

Submitted by Hobie on May 21, 2020 - 5:10pm.

zk wrote:
Hobie wrote:
Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.

So you have no evidence, then? You just made a wild assumption and you're convinced of it until convinced otherwise?

Why don't we hear of any flu statistics? Why is there not a side by side comparison of number of flu vs. corona stats? Just sayin'

Submitted by zk on May 21, 2020 - 6:02pm.

Hobie wrote:
zk wrote:
Hobie wrote:
Bad economy helps elect a non-incumbent. That is my point.

So you have no evidence, then? You just made a wild assumption and you're convinced of it until convinced otherwise?

Why don't we hear of any flu statistics? Why is there not a side by side comparison of number of flu vs. corona stats? Just sayin'

Just sayin' what? That you can't come up with any reasonable responses to what I said so you completely change the subject?

Ok.

If flu stats and covid stats were understood by the general public the way they're understood by scientists, you wouldn't want them to be hearing about them.

I wrote this on another thread:

When comparing Covid-19 death rate with influenza death rate, virtually everybody (including me) has been using a 0.1% death rate for the flu.

0.1% is actually the case fatality rate for the flu, not the infection fatality rate for the flu.

"Case fatality rate" means deaths per confirmed case. "Infection fatality rate" means deaths per actual infection. Because we don't test everybody for these infections, the infection fatality rate can only be estimated. Also, the case fatality rate will necessarily be higher than the infection fatality rate.

Technically, the case fatality rate for Covid-19 is some very-high number (because we test so few people) that means nothing right now. But the estimated infection fatality rate of Covid-19 seems to be around 0.5% to 0.8%. The infection fatality rate of influenza is estimated between 0.025% and 0.05%.

That makes infection with the novel coronavirus somewhere between 10 and 32 times deadlier than infection with an influenza virus.

And don't forget, it's also wildly more contagious than influenza.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/an...

Also, reading this may help you understand more about influenza numbers and about the differences between influenza and covid:

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/obs...

This is from the second article:

If we compare, for instance, the number of people who died in the United States from COVID-19 in the second full week of April to the number of people who died from influenza during the worst week of the past seven flu seasons (as reported to the CDC), we find that the novel coronavirus killed between 9.5 and 44 times more people than seasonal flu. In other words, the coronavirus is not anything like the flu: It is much, much worse.

Remember, there were lock downs in place a lot of places during that time frame for covid. But not for influenza during its worst week of the last 7 years. There obviously would have been far more deaths from covid than during that week without the lock downs. So it's possible the numbers are even worse than that.

Submitted by Hobie on May 22, 2020 - 7:28am.

zk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.

Moving on, another way to think about contact tracing is going back to the venn diagram concept.

Let's suppose you pick a random person in NY who doesn't know he is a carrier. (NY only because the high density helps illustrate my point.) That person quarantines in his house with his family. Then he goes to market for food. Next Home Depot, gas, drug store, walk in park. Repeat a couple times a week.

Now if you track his contacts and then everyone else in his apartment building, they are going to be shopping at very close by shops following a similar exposure path. Now imagine this as venn diagram.

See how in no time, everyone will have crossed paths with our infected guy. And how the next 'logical' step is to have all those people now quarantine.

This again will lead to work stoppage and lumbering economy.

Can we agree on the future data collected by contact tracing is going to be a can of worms? ( hence my original rhetorical question )

People cannot be quarantined until there is a treatment or vaccine. People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.

Can we also agree that the current data attributing a death from Covid excluding any pre-existing terminal condition (hospice)skews data.

Wouldn't a more accurate data set include patient other conditions?

https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washin...

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 22, 2020 - 8:55am.

Hobie wrote:
zk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.

Moving on, another way to think about contact tracing is going back to the venn diagram concept.

Let's suppose you pick a random person in NY who doesn't know he is a carrier. (NY only because the high density helps illustrate my point.) That person quarantines in his house with his family. Then he goes to market for food. Next Home Depot, gas, drug store, walk in park. Repeat a couple times a week.

Now if you track his contacts and then everyone else in his apartment building, they are going to be shopping at very close by shops following a similar exposure path. Now imagine this as venn diagram.

See how in no time, everyone will have crossed paths with our infected guy. And how the next 'logical' step is to have all those people now quarantine.

This again will lead to work stoppage and lumbering economy.

Can we agree on the future data collected by contact tracing is going to be a can of worms? ( hence my original rhetorical question )

People cannot be quarantined until there is a treatment or vaccine. People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.

Can we also agree that the current data attributing a death from Covid excluding any pre-existing terminal condition (hospice)skews data.

Wouldn't a more accurate data set include patient other conditions?

https://www.freedomfoundation.com/washington/washington-health-officials-gunshot-victims-counted-as-covid-19-deaths/

i knew we werent going to be able to agree on death numbers.

it does seem at first glance like people should be able to determine their own risk appetitie, but the problem societally is that we are all connected, man, so one person with a higher risk appetite doesn't only increase risk for self, she increases risk for others.

we;re not connected in some hippydippy way, i mean, we are ALL CONNECTED. we are all part of one giant ecological cauldron, breathing the same air, like one organism. we are not as separated as we think we are. there is no fully separate me from the universe (although our 401k accounts definitely appear to be distinct).

and even though we are all interwoven...

doesnt mean we shouldnt be increasing risk societally, just that this isn't a purely individual risk appetite decision. it's a judgment call for society to make, which we do all the time....for instance...

the risk to others from opening up is greater than the risk to others from drugs, and as a society we decided that it's just too "risky" for people to be able to manage their own bodies and decide whether they should be able to take psychedelic mushrooms or whatever. as a society we feel like, nope, too risky, too nutty, you
c an't do that. which is utter bullshit.

and society bans drugs, and people think it's prudent and sensible, even tho ingestion of drugs is way less risky to others than walking around and spreading germs all over the place that our immune system can't deal with.

so, yeah, I'm in favor of opening up this nation, getting the brutal buzzsaw of pseudocapitalism and endless consumption revved up again , im even ok with a massive death toll, but i am NOT OK with saying this is just some individual risk profile decision.

that is BULLSHIT.

it's more like a guy smoking on a plane. it's OBVIOUSLY not just an individual decision he makes to increase his risk for cancer.

he's stinking up the whole plane!

In the exact same way, this IS OBVIOUSLY not just an individual risk profile decision on how you think you'll fare from covid 19.

so, in sum...

no on airplane smoking.

no, not even in the bathroom, you disgusting freak.

yes on psychedelic mushrooms

yes on opening up the country.

no on trump

no on yes.

yes on no.

no on biden
yes on lies

no on truth

no on time

yes on space

yes on the present

no on the past

No on Jesus

Yes on Joel Osteen

No on thoughts

Yes on reality.

No on Noh theatre

liberty ...all that hand wringing and anguish over legalizing weed.

too "risky".

I assume all the pro-open pro-self autonomy people are also vehemently outraged at the continuing criminalization and incarceration of certain drugs

and are fighting hard to legalize it nationally as part of their more liberty plan?

naah. when we said "liberty" we meant just your liberty to be part of the giant capitalist machine adn help it keep moving.

however...meditate, dont medicate

Submitted by zk on May 22, 2020 - 9:02am.

Hobie wrote:

Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.

Hobie wrote:
zk: My original thread ended with a rhetorical question. You kinda missed that and jumped into the weeds.

Ha! So very trumpesque. Say something completely ridiculous and, when called on it, claim it was "sarcasm" or, in your case, "a rhetorical question."

Hobie wrote:

People will accept some level of risk. Let people choose their own level of risk.

That's where your whole argument falls apart. Any time a person increases his risk of getting the virus, he increases the risk of others getting the virus. So he's choosing others' risk for them.

As to your Venn diagram, yes, there would be a lot of contacts involved. There would be a lot of quarantining. The ideal time to have done it would've been March or even February when there were a lot fewer cases. That didn't happen at the time because our president thought it would go away "like a miracle." It is very late in the game to start. But it's better than not starting at all.

Submitted by scaredyclassic on May 22, 2020 - 9:17am.

it might actually be too late, because trump waited.

TRUMP WAITED, THREE MILLION WERE FATED.

sometimes the die is cast and it is too late to start investing for retirement, take birth control, or to do contact tracing.

but it's never too late to wise up.

hobie and scaredy are ONE BEING.

what was our face before we were born?

i feel prepared to die, but not to suffer.

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 22, 2020 - 10:05am.

Hobie wrote:

Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.

Convince-me-otherwise is just the same as try-to-change-my-mind. There are memes going.
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Change...

Submitted by ucodegen on May 22, 2020 - 10:10am.

FlyerInHi wrote:
One of the first contact-tracing apps violates its own privacy policy

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2020/05/21/care19-dakota-privacy-coronavirus/?itid=lk_inline_manual_41


A quote from the article:

The oversight suggests that state officials and Apple, both of which were responsible for vetting the app before it became available April 7, were asleep at the wheel.

Figures - management farms it out - and fuggedaboutit(s).

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 22, 2020 - 10:14am.

scaredyclassic wrote:
it might actually be too late, because trump waited.

TRUMP WAITED, THREE MILLION WERE FATED.
sometimes the die is cast and it is too late to start investing for retirement, take birth control, or to do contact tracing.

but it's never too late to wise up.

Remember when Trump first talked of a total and complete shutdown?

Now, with the states doing their own things it will be like whac-a-mole.

Engineering wise, it’s not too late. But do we have the will to do it?

Submitted by FlyerInHi on May 22, 2020 - 10:26am.

The-Shoveler wrote:
Keep your phone GPS off IMO.

I am not a computer guy, but I think that in addition to GPS, Bluetooth is necessary for accuracy. Convince me otherwise.

Submitted by outtamojo on May 22, 2020 - 1:49pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
Hobie wrote:

Convince me this is not a tactic to keep economy depressed for political reasons.

Convince-me-otherwise is just the same as try-to-change-my-mind. There are memes going.
https://imgflip.com/memegenerator/Change-My-Mind

When the lockdown ends Americans will find themselves surrounded by surreptitiously built 5G towers. Think your last free thoughts while you still can!

Submitted by The-Shoveler on May 22, 2020 - 3:02pm.

FlyerInHi wrote:
The-Shoveler wrote:
Keep your phone GPS off IMO.

I am not a computer guy, but I think that in addition to GPS, Bluetooth is necessary for accuracy. Convince me otherwise.


Hmmm, yea better to have bluetooth off as well.

I think they can actually triangulate you fairly well just using cell signal. Maybe I can start selling metal phone holders (like metal wallets LOL).

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