Condo, Townhome, maybe a little house?

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Submitted by profhoff on November 7, 2022 - 5:30pm

My adult child may be moving to the area. He's thinking of north PB, UTC. Good proximity to north county and also uptown, downtown.

Any piggs have advice on which areas, types of housing will make the best investment? Does a condo make sense? Houses might be out of reach.

Any predictions on what market might look like late spring 2023 for each type of property? (I'm going to assume rates will still be high.)

Submitted by nostradamus on November 7, 2022 - 7:12pm.

profhoff wrote:
Any predictions on what market might look like late spring 2023 for each type of property? (I'm going to assume rates will still be high.)

Significant price reductions are just warming up. My prediction: by spring it will be fully ignited. Flippers will flop. Short-term rentals will be licensed and regulated, which may increase inventory. Many things are coming into play. If you're a gambler it may be a fun time. Interest rates, the job market, elections, rentals, even non-local layoffs like Facebook, Twitter, and Wells Fargo can affect us because many people who work from home choose to live here. We haven't suffered many layoffs locally but inflation hit us hard and we pay more than pretty much everywhere for pretty much everything. Things look scary right now but as they say: buy the home you like and can afford, nobody can predict the future-- not even Nostradamus.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 7, 2022 - 7:57pm.

Already have been significant declines many places like up here. Happy to share some ideas but need more info like vitals, wants, needs, like etc. but advice will still be rent a year to get lay of the land. Most of the damage should be done by this time next year.

Submitted by svelte on November 8, 2022 - 11:10am.

Starting to hear rumblings that AirBnB hosts are starting to feel pain nationwide. This may be less of a problem in San Diego, I don't know, but it is something to keep an eye on.

If AirBnB owners in SD start to bail, we may see another leg down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/airbnb...

Submitted by gzz on November 8, 2022 - 11:27am.

I think the UTC area is a better value now than north PB, and has better access to high wage job centers for future appreciation. The buildings are newer too so lower costs.

I lived in north PB and really liked it there, very high level of amenities. But the RE there is just as expensive as La Jolla, though parts are in LJ school district. Driving from coastal north PB to the 5 or 52 was a long unpleasant slog that I would not do daily, but working from home there was idyllic.

I don't have a great deal of confidence in this prediction, but I think the most likely scenario the next 2 years is inflation and rates drop hard starting this quarter and for all of 2023, but the economic weakness causing the rate drop keeps the housing market flat. Then starting in late 2023 prices resume rising.

Submitted by an on November 8, 2022 - 1:25pm.

I hope you're right Nostradamus. Given the bleak picture you're laying out, hopefully prices will drop 50% in the next 6 months so it'll be cheaper to buy then than the same time a year prior.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 9, 2022 - 1:12am.

svelte wrote:
Starting to hear rumblings that AirBnB hosts are starting to feel pain nationwide. This may be less of a problem in San Diego, I don't know, but it is something to keep an eye on.

If AirBnB owners in SD start to bail, we may see another leg down.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/us/airbnb-hosts-are-worrying-about-an-airbnbust-here-s-the-main-reason-some-short-term-rental-owners-are-experiencing-a-rough-patch/ar-AA13Qs30?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=6f716735d98b4a228b6de6af014c1966

FWIW that was a meme created on social media greatly exaggerating reality. Was on an analyst call that debunked it a few days ago

Submitted by profhoff on November 9, 2022 - 2:05pm.

Is it a meme? I think the migration away from airbnb and back toward hotels is very real. Will that lead to airbnb hosts selling their properties? Time will tell!

Submitted by profhoff on November 9, 2022 - 2:07pm.

, in my mind, the biggest factor will be rates. If rates stay high, it seems prices will have to come down. But if rates start to drop soon, then I don't think we'll see too much downward pressure on prices.

Submitted by profhoff on November 9, 2022 - 2:07pm.

, in my mind, the biggest factor will be rates. If rates stay high, it seems prices will have to come down. But if rates start to drop soon, then I don't think we'll see too much downward pressure on prices.

Submitted by profhoff on November 9, 2022 - 2:09pm.

re: UTC, I saw a report within the last week that UC is trying to grow dramatically with denser housing options - kind of like downtown. Current residents are upset. No plans for improved roads - apparently city leaders are relying on bike lines and the trolley.

Submitted by an on November 9, 2022 - 3:28pm.

Not just UTC, a lot of the community plans are being updated with a lot of dense housing. Sorrento Valley and Mira Mesa are also either up zoning or adding residential zoning to where there were none before. Sorrento Valley, once the community plan is approved, will have areas zoned for 5-10 stories residential buildings.

https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/mmcp...

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2022 - 9:30am.

profhoff wrote:
Is it a meme? I think the migration away from airbnb and back toward hotels is very real. Will that lead to airbnb hosts selling their properties? Time will tell!

There was one post on Twitter that took on a life of its own.

Submitted by sdrealtor on November 12, 2022 - 9:32am.

an wrote:
Not just UTC, a lot of the community plans are being updated with a lot of dense housing. Sorrento Valley and Mira Mesa are also either up zoning or adding residential zoning to where there were none before. Sorrento Valley, once the community plan is approved, will have areas zoned for 5-10 stories residential buildings.

https://www.miramesatowncouncil.org/mmcpg-community-plan-update-recommendations/

Interesting. I think it’s much easier sell to build residential towers where there are existing office towers.

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