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VoiceofSanDiego.orgArticles that I have written for VoiceofSanDiego.org, a local news publication that provides continuing coverage of San Diego housing and economic issues.
Foreclosure Freeze Could Have Mixed ResultsSubmitted by Rich Toscano on October 8, 2010 - 6:34pm
As many of you have doubtless read over the past week or so, it seems
that some loan servicers have been a bit lax in following those pesky
"rules" when processing foreclosures.
In some states, California not among them, the foreclosure process requires that servicers sign an affidavit swearing that they have confirmed certain facts about the loan to be foreclosed upon. In their efforts to blaze through all the piled-up foreclosures, some servicers signed such forms in bulk without having actually confirmed the individual facts. This puts the legitimacy of some foreclosures into question. continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Home Prices Rose in July; High Tier Weak AgainSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 30, 2010 - 3:29pm
The Case-Shiller index of San Diego home prices was up by .7 percent
between June and July...
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Both Job Surveys Indicate San Diego SlowdownSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 25, 2010 - 5:17pm
We haven't checked in on the household job survey in a while.
This set of employment data is distinct from the "establishment survey"
I usually cite in a couple of ways. The household survey is
conducted by polling -- as the name would suggest -- households about
their
employment status, while the the establishment survey polls
businesses. The effect of this difference is that the household
survey
measures employment among people who live in San Diego (regardless of
where they are employed) and the establishment survey gauges employment
at San Diego businesses (regardless of where those businesses'
employees live). The second big difference is that the household
survey counts self-employed people, while the establishment survey does
not.
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Local Job Market Takes a Turn for the WorseSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 20, 2010 - 7:31pm
The news has been pretty good on the San Diego job front this
year. Not great, or even close to it -- but good.
Employment rose steadily in the year through June even when accounting
for the temporary effect of US Census jobs. Employment decreased
in July, but this is a seasonal effect that happens each year largely
as a result of school getting out. Despite the summer break for
educators, July saw employment in the "non-bubble" sectors of the
economy grow on a year-over-year basis for the first time since October 2008.
Last month, in contrast, was not so good. That is, according to the estimates from the payroll survey conducted each month by California's Employee Development Department. The graph below shows that San Diego employment is estimated to have dropped by .2 percent between July and August: ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Higher-Priced Home Weakness Asserts Itself Again in JuneSubmitted by Rich Toscano on September 2, 2010 - 4:36pm
The Case-Shiller home price index for San Diego was up a mild .4
percent overall in June. Hidden in that increase, however, was a
drop in the high-priced tier (composed of the most expensive one-third
of homes sold during the April-through-June measurement period).
This continues the general (though recently dormant) trend in which the rebound has been far stronger in the low-priced than the high-priced tier, with the mid-priced tier splitting the difference: ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Non-Bubble Job Growth Goes PositiveSubmitted by Rich Toscano on August 21, 2010 - 3:10pm
I can't get too specific in titles, as much as I'd sometimes like to,
so let me quickly clarify the subject of this post: the
non-housing-bubble portion of the economy grew on a year-over-year
basis in July. This is a significant milestone, as the last time
the non-bubble private sector registered an annual increase in
employment was back at the beginning of the big crash in October 2008.
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Bubble Sectors Account for Bulk of Job LossesSubmitted by Rich Toscano on August 1, 2010 - 7:24pm
In my analysis of the local job market I've long singled out what I
referred to as the "housing bubble beneficiary sectors." As the
name implies, these industries enjoyed
huge growth as a direct result of San Diego's housing bubble.
They were, in no particular order:
Predictably, the swollen bubble sectors deflated right along with the housing bubble itself. And while much of economy suffered, the bubble sectors took the brunt of it. In this article I will take a closer look at how much these three sectors contributed to the region's multi-year job loss trend in comparison to the rest of the region's industries. Just for kicks, I am also going to break out the government sector because it accounts for a big chunk of local employment (19 percent as of June 2010) and, unlike the private sector, its ups and downs are not strongly affected by the business cycle. continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
May Case-Shiller ChartsSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 28, 2010 - 3:15pm
Kelly Bennett rounded up the latest Case-Shiller
numbers yesterday. (Her final
C-S writeup? Sniff sniff...) I don't have much to add to
Kelly's analysis this latest release so I will just supplement with the
usual assortment of charts:
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Local Non-Census Employment Rises Yet AgainSubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 21, 2010 - 3:04pm
Total San Diego employment dropped between May and June -- but the
decline was caused by the mass laying off of temporary US Census
workers who had previously been swelling the ranks of the
employed.
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Rising Inventory Could Stall Home Price RallySubmitted by Rich Toscano on July 1, 2010 - 10:40pm
The economics blog Calculated Risk put up a very interesting graph last week that showed the relationship between
housing inventory and home prices at a national level. It was so
interesting, in fact, that I decided to "borrow" the concept and
recreate the graph for San Diego County.
It is below, but it requires some explanation... ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Home Prices Rose Across the Board in AprilSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 29, 2010 - 4:44pm
All three of the Case-Shiller home price
tiers for San Diego rose moderately in the month
of April. The low tier was back on top with a 1.0 percent rise,
compared to .5 percent increase for the middle tier and a .3 percent
rise for the high tier.
These numbers followed a very unusual March in which the previously stagnant high tier registered a huge increase and the formerly robust low tier actually declined. April's price movements were a lot more in line with what we've seen during the price bounce that's prevailed since last spring. ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
San Diego's Job Growth Streak Carries OnSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 23, 2010 - 5:08pm
As it has every month since January, according to the latest estimates
from the state of California, San Diego's regional employment grew in
May.
But what (as I imagine some of the more bearish readers are thinking, and, perhaps, readying to inform me via electronic nastygram) of the effect of temporary hiring for the US Census? It's a fair question. The Bureau of Labor Statistics estimated that short-lived census jobs accounted for a over 95 percent of nationwide hiring in May. Isn't the same thing going on here? No, as it turns out. ![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
The Many Faces of Shadow InventorySubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 20, 2010 - 2:53pm
After the last entry on foreclosure activity, a couple of readers sent in articles with more data
relevant to the topic of "shadow inventory."
A commenter at my own site linked to a May Union-Tribune article about mortgage delinquencies. Delinquencies are defined as mortgages on which payments are late by a certain number of days (60 in this case). The reason this figure is interesting is that it captures all currently troubled mortgages, not just those that have been served with Notices of Default. So delinquencies are a more inclusive measure of potential shadow inventory. continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
Foreclosures Still Piling UpSubmitted by Rich Toscano on June 16, 2010 - 7:44pm
Let's check in on San Diego foreclosure activity... (category: )
Case-Shiller High Tier Comes AliveSubmitted by Rich Toscano on May 25, 2010 - 7:59pm
After languishing since last summer even as the mid- and low-priced
tiers rallied, the high-priced tier of the Case-Shiller home price
index finally showed some signs of life. The high tier of the
index,
comprising the most expensive one-third of homes sold during the
measurement period, leapt 2.9 percent between February and March.
![]() continue reading at voiceofsandiego.org (category: )
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