Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

A Spring Bounce (in Seller Delusion?)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 13, 2009 - 11:00am

A while back, just for giggles, I put a little Redfin price per square foot widget up near the lower right of the Econo-Almanac. Lately I've noticed an interesting pattern... that asking prices have turned up noticably even as selling prices continue to nosedive:

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January Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 9, 2009 - 5:31pm

The new year began with another step down in the size-adjusted median for both property types:

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December Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2009 - 4:26pm

The size-adjusted median price was down again last month for both property types, with a decline of 2.6% for single family homes and 7.8% for condos. The condo median price per square foot has now fallen over 50% from the September 2005 peak, forcing me to extend the Y axis downward in the chart below:

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November Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 7, 2008 - 9:03pm

The size-adjusted condo median rebounded a bit from October's freefall, but this month it was single family homes' turn to get whacked. The single family median price per square foot was down a gruesome 6.1% between October and November:

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Guest Commentary: A Festive Thanksgiving Message from Ramsey

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 26, 2008 - 6:58pm

The following is a typically cheery email sent by FOP (Friend Of Piggington), occasional guest poster, dim sum comrade at arms, and foreclosure guru Ramsey Su. Ramsey's previous guest commentary can be found by poking around here.

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If you only have time to look at one set of data to figure out the status of the real estate market, there is no doubt that I would choose the monthly Hope Now reports.

Unfortunately, this is the official press release which grossly distorts the valuable data and timely data Hope Now collects: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/press_rele...

The meat is here: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/data/files...

Here is an example of how valuable this data is. I call this the PUF indicator – PENT UP FORECLOSURES.

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Employment Situation Worsens (But Still Better Than the Worst of the 1990s)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 24, 2008 - 6:32pm

Over at voiceofsandiego.org I put up an article about the October employment figures with the typical chart plus a comparison with the 1990s recession. For the chart-happy, additional charts can be found below.

This one is the same as the chart at Voice except in percent terms instead of job terms.

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October 2008 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 8, 2008 - 1:26pm

October saw an epic drop in the median price per square foot paid for condos, down 14.8% in a single month:

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August Case-Shiller Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 29, 2008 - 1:49pm

Here, without much in the way of exposition, are some charts of the San Diego Case-Shiller data for August. The first three charts display nominal prices; the latter three display prices adjusted for inflation as measured by the CPI.

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September Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2008 - 11:49am

Based on the latest month's closed home sales, my simplistic but thus far pretty effective Case-Shiller HPI model forecasts a September decline of 3.0% for the HPI:

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August 2008: The Tardiest Data Rodeo Ever

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 26, 2008 - 7:41pm

Watching Paulson and Bernanke flail around has been a bit time consuming this month. While it's still September, let's get to the rodeo.

I'll start with the Case-Shiller HPI model based on the size-adjusted median:

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Berating Our Fearless Leaders

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 23, 2008 - 10:13am

Well, I called my assorted leaders to register my abject displeasure with the bailout. To keep things short I just noted two opinions:

  1. It's ridiculous that we are using taxpayer money to pay above market prices for possibly worthless assets and that the proceeds are going to highly paid people who knowingly took huge risks.
  2. I hope there is going to be some sort of accountability among all the regulators who first denied the risks and are now throwing our money at fixing their aftermath. If all the same people stay in charge, this kind of stuff will just keep happening.

I don't know how much good it does to make these calls but since a lot of people are apparently up in arms about the bailout it's worth a shot.

Here are the numbers I called:

White House: (202) 456-1111
Senator Feinstein: (202) 224-3841
Senator Boxer: (202) 224-3553
Congresswoman Davis (I'm in 92103): (202) 225-2040

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Guest Comentary: Ramsey on the Search for the Illusive Bottom

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 12, 2008 - 6:01pm

Longtime piggs will recognize the name of one Ramsey Su, a former REO broker who enjoys lengthy excursions into the data rathole. Ramsey has kindly agreed to let me post his latest analysis here (this includes the original piece followed by a clarification/update).

If you like this one, click here for Ramsey's previous postings. This one in particular, written back in February 2007, was particularly prescient and remains one of the most widely visited articles in Piggington history.

PS -- Yes, it's supposed to be "illusive" as in "illusory," as opposed to "elusive." And yes, I had to look up "illusive."

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Monthly House Payments, Rents, and Incomes

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 4, 2008 - 9:51pm

Here's a look at monthly house payments (including mortgage and property tax) compared to incomes and rents:

Loads of exposition can be found in the full writeup at voiceofsandiego.org.

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Shambling Towards Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 29, 2008 - 5:30pm

I've updated the long-term home price-to-income and price-to-rent charts through June 2008:

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June Case-Shiller Index

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 26, 2008 - 5:38pm

The aggregate index was down for another month, dropping by 1.5%. But what's this? The monthly change for the high-tier index doesn't have a minus sign in front of it? I'm confused...

But it's true. The high tier of the Case-Shiller index managed to stage a spring rally. A late one, and a very small one -- but hey, it's something. The high tier rose .3% from June. The middle and low tiers were down, however, 1.6% and 2.4% respectively.

My Case-Shiller proxy, which utilizes the median price per square foot, predicted a 1.6% decline in the overall index for the month vs. the actual 1.5%. So this proxy still seems to be working pretty well, at least for the time being. The aggregate index is down 29.5% from the November 2005 peak.

Some graphs follow: the first two nominal, the second two adjusted for CPI inflation.

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