San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 13, 2009 - 11:00am
A while back, just for giggles, I put a little Redfin price per square foot widget up near the lower right of the Econo-Almanac. Lately I've noticed an interesting pattern... that asking prices have turned up noticably even as selling prices continue to nosedive:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 9, 2009 - 5:31pm
The new year began with another step down in the size-adjusted median for both property types:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2009 - 4:26pm
The size-adjusted median price was down again last month for both property types, with a decline of 2.6% for single family homes and 7.8% for condos. The condo median price per square foot has now fallen over 50% from the September 2005 peak, forcing me to extend the Y axis downward in the chart below:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 7, 2008 - 9:03pm
The size-adjusted condo median rebounded a bit from October's freefall, but this month it was single family homes' turn to get whacked. The single family median price per square foot was down a gruesome 6.1% between October and November:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 26, 2008 - 6:58pm
The following is a typically cheery email sent by FOP (Friend Of Piggington), occasional guest poster, dim sum comrade at arms, and foreclosure guru Ramsey Su. Ramsey's previous guest commentary can be found by poking around here.
If you only have time to look at one set of data to figure out the status of the real estate market, there is no doubt that I would choose the monthly Hope Now reports.
Unfortunately, this is the official press release which grossly distorts the valuable data and timely data Hope Now collects: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/press_rele...
The meat is here: http://www.hopenow.com/upload/data/files...
Here is an example of how valuable this data is. I call this the PUF indicator – PENT UP FORECLOSURES.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 24, 2008 - 6:32pm
Over at voiceofsandiego.org I put up an article about the October employment figures with the typical chart plus a comparison with the 1990s recession. For the chart-happy, additional charts can be found below.
This one is the same as the chart at Voice except in percent terms instead of job terms.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 8, 2008 - 1:26pm
October saw an epic drop in the median price per square foot paid for condos, down 14.8% in a single month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 29, 2008 - 1:49pm
Here, without much in the way of exposition, are some charts of the San Diego Case-Shiller data for August. The first three charts display nominal prices; the latter three display prices adjusted for inflation as measured by the CPI.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 12, 2008 - 11:49am
Based on the latest month's closed home sales, my simplistic but thus far pretty effective Case-Shiller HPI model forecasts a September decline of 3.0% for the HPI:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 26, 2008 - 7:41pm
Watching Paulson and Bernanke flail around has been a bit time consuming this month. While it's still September, let's get to the rodeo.
I'll start with the Case-Shiller HPI model based on the size-adjusted median:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 23, 2008 - 10:13am
Well, I called my assorted leaders to register my abject displeasure with the bailout. To keep things short I just noted two opinions:
I don't know how much good it does to make these calls but since a lot of people are apparently up in arms about the bailout it's worth a shot.
Here are the numbers I called:
White House: (202) 456-1111
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 12, 2008 - 6:01pm
Longtime piggs will recognize the name of one Ramsey Su, a former REO broker who enjoys lengthy excursions into the data rathole. Ramsey has kindly agreed to let me post his latest analysis here (this includes the original piece followed by a clarification/update).
If you like this one, click here for Ramsey's previous postings. This one in particular, written back in February 2007, was particularly prescient and remains one of the most widely visited articles in Piggington history.
PS -- Yes, it's supposed to be "illusive" as in "illusory," as opposed to "elusive." And yes, I had to look up "illusive."
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 4, 2008 - 9:51pm
Here's a look at monthly house payments (including mortgage and property tax) compared to incomes and rents:
Loads of exposition can be found in the full writeup at voiceofsandiego.org.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 29, 2008 - 5:30pm
I've updated the long-term home price-to-income and price-to-rent charts through June 2008:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 26, 2008 - 5:38pm
The aggregate index was down for another month, dropping by 1.5%. But what's this? The monthly change for the high-tier index doesn't have a minus sign in front of it? I'm confused...
But it's true. The high tier of the Case-Shiller index managed to stage a spring rally. A late one, and a very small one -- but hey, it's something. The high tier rose .3% from June. The middle and low tiers were down, however, 1.6% and 2.4% respectively.
My Case-Shiller proxy, which utilizes the median price per square foot, predicted a 1.6% decline in the overall index for the month vs. the actual 1.5%. So this proxy still seems to be working pretty well, at least for the time being. The aggregate index is down 29.5% from the November 2005 peak.
Some graphs follow: the first two nominal, the second two adjusted for CPI inflation.
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