Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

November 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2009 - 5:49pm

November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end:

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October 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 9, 2009 - 3:54pm

It looks like the spring/summer rally has continued into autumn, as the median price per square foot was up 1.5% from the prior month:

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September 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2009 - 12:41pm

Some have asked what distinguishes a Data Rodeo from a Chartfest or for that matter the rarely seen Chart Extravaganza. The answer, which I will fabricate as I type this sentence, is that Data Rodeos are reserved for the monthly roundup of resale data, whereas the two alternate names are used for generic chart collections based upon the levels of extravagance and general chartiness contained therein.

I hope that clears everything up.

Prices

The rally in San Diego's median price per square foot continued through September, with the ppsf rising 2.2% for detached homes, 5.5% for (much more volatile) condos, and 3.1% for a volume-weighted aggregate.

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August 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 13, 2009 - 3:33pm

As discussed in the prior article, the median price per square foot was up again last month, though not as strongly as earlier in the year:

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Reset Timebomb Not Such a Big Deal?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 22, 2009 - 8:35am

I have long suspected that the whole "reset explosion in 2010 (or thereabouts)" factor was a lot more complex than people often make it out to be. Especially for San Diego... we are at the forefront of the bubble on the way up and then the way down; it makes sense that our reset peak might happen earlier as well.

But there are bigger reasons than that to doubt the reset explosion thesis. One is that resets don't matter -- all those loans were written at a time of substantially higher short-term rates, so a simple reset to the prevailing market rate should actually lower the mortgage payment. Recasts, not resets, are the danger. Recasts occur when the borrower starts paying down principal on an interest-only loan (in which they've paid only interest, as the name suggests) or a negative amortization loan (in which they haven't even paid all the interest, resulting in a principal that's been growing since they took the loan out). Option ARMs would fall in the latter category, assuming that the borrowers had chosen to take the "option" to pay less than the full payment amount.

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Shambling Towards (Though, More Recently, From) Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 16, 2009 - 7:10pm

It's time for a little update on the long-term aggregate housing valuation charts. (The emphasis is on the word "aggregate" -- let's just get it right out of the way these charts are based on a single home price measurement that encompasses the high end, the low end, and everything in between).

To sum it up, we've gone pretty much nowhere since the prior checkup on these numbers as of December 2008.

The home price-to-income ratio had dropped further in the early part of the year, but rising home prices and falling incomes have combined to nudge the ratio back up in recent months.

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July 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 12, 2009 - 7:39pm

As discussed previously, prices on the whole rallied again last month:

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Ramsey Su: Has Real Estate Bottomed?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 7, 2009 - 7:40am

My old pal and foreclosure guru Ramsey has penned another insightful missive that he was kind enough to let me post here on Piggington. I'll let the essay speak for itself, but I will add in regard to the conclusion that I think this shows why the Fed is trapped in the monetization game at this point (and why there is little chance that they will stop until forced to do so). Read on...

Home Sales per Trustee Sale

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 17, 2009 - 8:50am

In the comments to the prior post a graph of the sales-per-trustee-sale ratio was requested. Here it is:

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June 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 7, 2009 - 8:36pm

Well, we sure do appear to be having a good old fashioned spring (and now summer) rally.

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May 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 8, 2009 - 6:45pm

As I wrote a few days back at voiceofsandiego.org, we may just be experiencing a geniune spring fling:

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April 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 8, 2009 - 5:27pm

As noted in the prior post, the size-adjusted median actually experienced a bit of a monthly bump for the first time in 2 years:

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More Case-Shiller Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 29, 2009 - 10:31pm

...for to go with that last article. No explanation needed (well, none provided, anyway).

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March 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 8, 2009 - 7:17pm

Before we begin, let me get a couple instances of pimping out of the way.

First, I will be on "These Days" on NPR this coming Monday, April 13, at 9:00AM.

Second, I will be on a VoiceOfSanDiego.org panel called "The Economy: Where Are We Really?" on April 23. Details can be found here. Rock star realtor and media sensation Jim Klinge will also be there, along with the Voice's Kelly Bennett and USD economist Ryan Ratcliff.

Incidentally, I always turn down "panel" invitations for a variety reasons, not the least of which is that they are fairly nerve-wracking. But since the Voice was putting this one on I figured I should be a team player and participate. So feel free to attend if you want to see me all uncomfortable and whatnot.

OK, onto the rodeo.

The size-adjusted median fell for the month, as we've all come to expect:

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Bubble Logic Through the Ages

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 6, 2009 - 2:16pm

My friend Randy Dotinga, a freelance writer who sometimes writes for voiceofsandiego.org, dug up the following ad while researching a story:


(click the image for a large version)

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