Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

Reset Timebomb Not Such a Big Deal?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 22, 2009 - 8:35am

I have long suspected that the whole "reset explosion in 2010 (or thereabouts)" factor was a lot more complex than people often make it out to be. Especially for San Diego... we are at the forefront of the bubble on the way up and then the way down; it makes sense that our reset peak might happen earlier as well.

But there are bigger reasons than that to doubt the reset explosion thesis. One is that resets don't matter -- all those loans were written at a time of substantially higher short-term rates, so a simple reset to the prevailing market rate should actually lower the mortgage payment. Recasts, not resets, are the danger. Recasts occur when the borrower starts paying down principal on an interest-only loan (in which they've paid only interest, as the name suggests) or a negative amortization loan (in which they haven't even paid all the interest, resulting in a principal that's been growing since they took the loan out). Option ARMs would fall in the latter category, assuming that the borrowers had chosen to take the "option" to pay less than the full payment amount.

(category: )

Shambling Towards (Though, More Recently, From) Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 16, 2009 - 7:10pm

It's time for a little update on the long-term aggregate housing valuation charts. (The emphasis is on the word "aggregate" -- let's just get it right out of the way these charts are based on a single home price measurement that encompasses the high end, the low end, and everything in between).

To sum it up, we've gone pretty much nowhere since the prior checkup on these numbers as of December 2008.

The home price-to-income ratio had dropped further in the early part of the year, but rising home prices and falling incomes have combined to nudge the ratio back up in recent months.

(category: )

July 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 12, 2009 - 7:39pm

As discussed previously, prices on the whole rallied again last month:

(category: )

Ramsey Su: Has Real Estate Bottomed?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 7, 2009 - 7:40am

My old pal and foreclosure guru Ramsey has penned another insightful missive that he was kind enough to let me post here on Piggington. I'll let the essay speak for itself, but I will add in regard to the conclusion that I think this shows why the Fed is trapped in the monetization game at this point (and why there is little chance that they will stop until forced to do so). Read on...

Home Sales per Trustee Sale

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 17, 2009 - 8:50am

In the comments to the prior post a graph of the sales-per-trustee-sale ratio was requested. Here it is:

(category: )

June 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 7, 2009 - 8:36pm

Well, we sure do appear to be having a good old fashioned spring (and now summer) rally.

(category: )

May 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 8, 2009 - 6:45pm

As I wrote a few days back at voiceofsandiego.org, we may just be experiencing a geniune spring fling:

(category: )

April 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 8, 2009 - 5:27pm

As noted in the prior post, the size-adjusted median actually experienced a bit of a monthly bump for the first time in 2 years:

(category: )

More Case-Shiller Charts

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 29, 2009 - 10:31pm

...for to go with that last article. No explanation needed (well, none provided, anyway).

(category: )

March 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 8, 2009 - 7:17pm

Before we begin, let me get a couple instances of pimping out of the way.

First, I will be on "These Days" on NPR this coming Monday, April 13, at 9:00AM.

Second, I will be on a VoiceOfSanDiego.org panel called "The Economy: Where Are We Really?" on April 23. Details can be found here. Rock star realtor and media sensation Jim Klinge will also be there, along with the Voice's Kelly Bennett and USD economist Ryan Ratcliff.

Incidentally, I always turn down "panel" invitations for a variety reasons, not the least of which is that they are fairly nerve-wracking. But since the Voice was putting this one on I figured I should be a team player and participate. So feel free to attend if you want to see me all uncomfortable and whatnot.

OK, onto the rodeo.

The size-adjusted median fell for the month, as we've all come to expect:

(category: )

Bubble Logic Through the Ages

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 6, 2009 - 2:16pm

My friend Randy Dotinga, a freelance writer who sometimes writes for voiceofsandiego.org, dug up the following ad while researching a story:


(click the image for a large version)

(category: )

Shambling Towards Affordability (December 2008 Edition)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 24, 2009 - 4:43pm

Based on their historical relationships with rents and incomes, San Diego home prices are now reasonable.

There. I said it.

The long-term price-to-income and price-to-rent graphs tell the tale:

(category: )

Weekend Fun, or Possibly Quasi-Fun

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 13, 2009 - 6:00pm

Below, please find a few tidbits to aid in any weekend procrastination you might be planning.

First, I'll be on KOGO (that would be the radio, AM 600) on Sunday at noon chatting with my buddy Scott Lewis, editor of voiceofsandiego.org, about housing and ye olde inflation/deflation debate. I know what we'll be talking about because we already recorded the segment, which was about 20 minutes long.

So tune in to hear the part where I know I have another a point to make, but I totally forget what it was, resulting some nice dead air. Smooooth.

The show should be archived here at some point.

Second, Jon Lansner of the OC Register is celebrating the 3-year anniversary of his housing blog by interviewing other housing bubble chroniclers. I'm up today.

(category: )

February 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 10, 2009 - 7:40pm

Condos were whacked hardest again last month, at least as measured by the size-adjusted median price. That price indicator was down 6.4% for condos between January and February alone. The detached home size-adjusted median was down 3.0%, with a volume-weighted aggregate of the two down 3.8%.

(category: )

December Case-Shiller Graphs

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 25, 2009 - 9:29pm

Below are a few quick graphs of the December numbers... I will note that for the second month in a row, the high tier fell most on a month-to-month basis (-2.4%).

I should also note that the tier cutoffs keep getting lower -- moreso than would be accounted for by just price declines -- because most of the activity is concentrated in lower-priced properties. (The cutoffs, you may recall, are arrived at by separating all the home sales into thirds by price, so the tiers will drop as more low-priced stuff sells).

Anyway, here's a chart from the peak:

(category: )