Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

February 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 6, 2010 - 6:15pm
The median price per square foot was up about 1% in February, but that's a smaller amount that its January decline.  So I would characterize prices by this measure as continuing to go nowhere, as they have done since September.


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January 2010 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 21, 2010 - 9:13pm

The median price per square foot declined between December and January for both detached homes and condos:

Prices by this measure have really gone nowhere since September 2009.  As I noted at the Voice last week, the rally that began in early 2009 has clearly come to an end. 

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Shambing Away from Cheapness But Still Milling About In The General Locale of Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 17, 2010 - 10:05pm

Well, I thought the old "Shambling Toward Affordability" title for this series of articles was a bit pithier but it just doesn't quite work now that home prices have been rising for the better part of a year.  In any case, regardless of the what we want to call it, it's time to check in on San Diego housing valuations as of year-end 2009.

The 2009 home price rally reversed the direction of the shamble, but it didn't really change the overall picture, which is that San Diego home prices (in aggregate, of course) are still at middling levels of valuation.

Here's the price to per capita income ratio:

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December 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2010 - 5:45pm

The San Diego housing market managed to squeek out another gain in the median price per square foot as 2009 drew to a close:

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Ramsey Su's Real Estate Outlook for 2010

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 24, 2009 - 4:04pm
It wouldn't be a proper Christmas without a little holiday cheer from legendary housing bubble analyst Ramsey Su.  So pour yourself a couple buckets of egg nog and read on...

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November 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2009 - 5:49pm

November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end:

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October 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 9, 2009 - 3:54pm

It looks like the spring/summer rally has continued into autumn, as the median price per square foot was up 1.5% from the prior month:

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September 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2009 - 12:41pm

Some have asked what distinguishes a Data Rodeo from a Chartfest or for that matter the rarely seen Chart Extravaganza. The answer, which I will fabricate as I type this sentence, is that Data Rodeos are reserved for the monthly roundup of resale data, whereas the two alternate names are used for generic chart collections based upon the levels of extravagance and general chartiness contained therein.

I hope that clears everything up.

Prices

The rally in San Diego's median price per square foot continued through September, with the ppsf rising 2.2% for detached homes, 5.5% for (much more volatile) condos, and 3.1% for a volume-weighted aggregate.

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August 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 13, 2009 - 3:33pm

As discussed in the prior article, the median price per square foot was up again last month, though not as strongly as earlier in the year:

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Reset Timebomb Not Such a Big Deal?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 22, 2009 - 8:35am

I have long suspected that the whole "reset explosion in 2010 (or thereabouts)" factor was a lot more complex than people often make it out to be. Especially for San Diego... we are at the forefront of the bubble on the way up and then the way down; it makes sense that our reset peak might happen earlier as well.

But there are bigger reasons than that to doubt the reset explosion thesis. One is that resets don't matter -- all those loans were written at a time of substantially higher short-term rates, so a simple reset to the prevailing market rate should actually lower the mortgage payment. Recasts, not resets, are the danger. Recasts occur when the borrower starts paying down principal on an interest-only loan (in which they've paid only interest, as the name suggests) or a negative amortization loan (in which they haven't even paid all the interest, resulting in a principal that's been growing since they took the loan out). Option ARMs would fall in the latter category, assuming that the borrowers had chosen to take the "option" to pay less than the full payment amount.

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Shambling Towards (Though, More Recently, From) Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 16, 2009 - 7:10pm

It's time for a little update on the long-term aggregate housing valuation charts. (The emphasis is on the word "aggregate" -- let's just get it right out of the way these charts are based on a single home price measurement that encompasses the high end, the low end, and everything in between).

To sum it up, we've gone pretty much nowhere since the prior checkup on these numbers as of December 2008.

The home price-to-income ratio had dropped further in the early part of the year, but rising home prices and falling incomes have combined to nudge the ratio back up in recent months.

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July 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 12, 2009 - 7:39pm

As discussed previously, prices on the whole rallied again last month:

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Ramsey Su: Has Real Estate Bottomed?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 7, 2009 - 7:40am

My old pal and foreclosure guru Ramsey has penned another insightful missive that he was kind enough to let me post here on Piggington. I'll let the essay speak for itself, but I will add in regard to the conclusion that I think this shows why the Fed is trapped in the monetization game at this point (and why there is little chance that they will stop until forced to do so). Read on...

Home Sales per Trustee Sale

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 17, 2009 - 8:50am

In the comments to the prior post a graph of the sales-per-trustee-sale ratio was requested. Here it is:

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June 2009 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 7, 2009 - 8:36pm

Well, we sure do appear to be having a good old fashioned spring (and now summer) rally.

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