San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 6, 2010 - 11:27am
The Rodeo approacheth... in the meantime, for those wondering what happened to prices in the first non-double-dip month, the answer is that they were pretty flat overall:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 18, 2010 - 6:07pm
I'd say the best part of July is not the lifting of the June Gloom, but the fact that I won't have to talk about the "double dip" any more. Well, maybe a few more times. Like now, for instance. You will recall that June was the last month in which first-time buyers could get both the $8,000 federal tax credit and the $10,000 state tax credit. The Feds later extended the June closing deadline to accomodate short sales, but they didn't announce that until more recently. Because people buying before the April deadline thought they had to close by June, the tax credit's effect should have been used up in June for the great majority of cases.
It actually appears that the effect of the double dip may have been used up even before that. The median price per square foot actually fell in June despite the expiring stimulus. It dropped by a giant 10.6% for condos, more than erasing last month's almost-as-wacky gain. But even the far less volatile single family median price per square foot fell by 1.4 percent.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 9, 2010 - 4:06pm
Before we begin the Rodeo, you might be interested in a piece I just put up at voiceofsandiego.org on National Froth Day, when we commemorate Greenspan's first utterance of that legendary euphemism.
Assuming you have now read the afore-linked piece, celebrated Froth Day, and eventually sobered up, let's move on the to last month's housing data.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 7, 2010 - 7:01pm
After March's surge to the upside, the median price per square foot pulled back in April:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 19, 2010 - 9:26am
As discussed last week, the median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes rallied hard in March.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 6, 2010 - 6:15pm
The median price per square foot was up about 1% in February, but that's a smaller amount that its January decline. So I would characterize prices by this measure as continuing to go nowhere, as they have done since September.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 21, 2010 - 9:13pm
The median price per square foot declined between December and
January for both detached homes and condos:
Prices by this measure have really gone nowhere since September
2009. As I noted at the Voice last week, the rally that began in early 2009 has
clearly come to an end.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 17, 2010 - 10:05pm
Well, I thought the old "Shambling Toward Affordability" title for this series of articles was a bit pithier but it just doesn't quite work now that home prices have been rising for the better part of a year. In any case, regardless of the what we want to call it, it's time to check in on San Diego housing valuations as of year-end 2009.
The 2009 home price rally reversed the direction of the shamble, but it didn't really change the overall picture, which is that San Diego home prices (in aggregate, of course) are still at middling levels of valuation.
Here's the price to per capita income ratio:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 10, 2010 - 5:45pm
The San Diego housing market managed to squeek out another gain in
the median price per square foot as 2009 drew to a close:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 24, 2009 - 4:04pm
It wouldn't be a proper Christmas without a little holiday cheer from legendary housing bubble analyst Ramsey Su. So pour yourself a couple buckets of egg nog and read on...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 15, 2009 - 5:49pm
November saw the 7-month rally in San Diego home prices, as measured by the median price per square foot, come to an end:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 9, 2009 - 3:54pm
It looks like the spring/summer rally has continued into autumn, as the median price per square foot was up 1.5% from the prior month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2009 - 12:41pm
Some have asked what distinguishes a Data Rodeo from a Chartfest or for that matter the rarely seen Chart Extravaganza. The answer, which I will fabricate as I type this sentence, is that Data Rodeos are reserved for the monthly roundup of resale data, whereas the two alternate names are used for generic chart collections based upon the levels of extravagance and general chartiness contained therein.
I hope that clears everything up.
The rally in San Diego's median price per square foot continued through September, with the ppsf rising 2.2% for detached homes, 5.5% for (much more volatile) condos, and 3.1% for a volume-weighted aggregate.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 13, 2009 - 3:33pm
As discussed in the prior article, the median price per square foot was up again last month, though not as strongly as earlier in the year:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 22, 2009 - 8:35am
I have long suspected that the whole "reset explosion in 2010 (or thereabouts)" factor was a lot more complex than people often make it out to be. Especially for San Diego... we are at the forefront of the bubble on the way up and then the way down; it makes sense that our reset peak might happen earlier as well.
But there are bigger reasons than that to doubt the reset explosion thesis. One is that resets don't matter -- all those loans were written at a time of substantially higher short-term rates, so a simple reset to the prevailing market rate should actually lower the mortgage payment. Recasts, not resets, are the danger. Recasts occur when the borrower starts paying down principal on an interest-only loan (in which they've paid only interest, as the name suggests) or a negative amortization loan (in which they haven't even paid all the interest, resulting in a principal that's been growing since they took the loan out). Option ARMs would fall in the latter category, assuming that the borrowers had chosen to take the "option" to pay less than the full payment amount.
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