Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

August 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo - With Words!

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 20, 2011 - 9:42am
Well, I didn't say the words would be interesting or anything.  But there are some.

The median price per square foot took a bit of a hit last month, falling for both detached homes and condos and down about 3% overall.



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July Resale Housing Data (Chart) Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 29, 2011 - 10:46am
A chart-only edition of the July rodeo follows below.  Summary: prices very flat in the aggregate, but months of inventory creeping up a bit.



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June 2011 Resale Data Rodeo: Taciturn Edition

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 23, 2011 - 4:36pm
Hey Piggs -- I've been an extra busy bee this month, as the utter lack of new content would suggest.  I'm coming up for air to post a quick rodeo, but this month I'll let the graphs largely speak for themselves.  While nothing very interesting happened in the data last month, I will just note the following:
  1. Prices have been pretty weak considering seasonality, but
  2. ...the months-of-supply figure has been remarkably stable and rests at a level that probably precludes much in the way of downside.
Now, enjoy the soothing silence of the graphs to follow...


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May 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 13, 2011 - 7:04pm
All the gloom and doom about the national market notwithstanding, the median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes nudged up again in May:



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April 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 11, 2011 - 4:42pm
The median price per square foot of San Diego resale homes was somewhat mixed last month: up .2% for single family homes, but down 1.7% for condos, and down .3% in aggregate.



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Blast from the Past: Revisiting Moody's and Forbes' Colossally Inept 2006-Era Housing Forecast

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 23, 2011 - 10:54am

Remember when housing started to falter back in 2006, and the mainstream economists' version of bearish tough talk was to predict that prices might just go up slightly less quickly in the future?

Tim of the always amusing Seattle Bubble blog recently dug up a prime example of that very thing, wherein Forbes magazine sternly informed readers:

"Get used to it--the seller's market is closing up shop."

...and:

"Now the question is more how hard is it going to land..."

Wow, that's some fairly bearish-sounding rhetoric.  I guess that's why Forbes' teamed up with Moody's to determine that prices would... pretty much just keep going up. (Fun graphs after the jump...)
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March 2011 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 12, 2011 - 9:56am
The median price per square foot for San Diego homes rose for the second time in a row in March.  This price measure was up .3% for detached homes, 4.8% for attached homes, and 1.6% in aggregate.  The detached home series is the most reliable of the three, so any actual price increases were probably muted -- nonetheless, prices look to have increased for a second month in a row.



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February 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 17, 2011 - 5:50pm
Last month, the median price per square foot of existing homes sold in San Diego rose notably -- by 2.2 percent for single family homes, 2.5 percent for condos, and 2.4 percent in aggregate:



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Shambling Towards Affordability: Year-End 2010 Edition

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 14, 2011 - 6:32pm
It's time for some valutions.  The charts below show San Diego housing valuation ratios updated through year-end 2010.

Let's start with the price-to-income ratio.  The decline in home prices since the summer brought this ratio back down to 7.6 -- right in the middle of fair value territory per these ratios.  In fact, it's 5% below the median price-to-income ratio over this entire period (which incidentally is 8 on the nose).



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January 2011 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 7, 2011 - 8:44pm

Well, it's 2011, and yet I am still lacking the following:
  • laser eyes
  • hyper-evolved glasses-wearing chimp assistant
  • self-aware email client
  • minotaur
  • huffable bacon
  • tank full of precogs to help me match my outfits
Someone please tell science to get on it.  For now, we'll have to make do with the January resale data.

The median price per square foot took a bit of a beating last month: down 3.0 percent for detached homes, 7.2 percent for condos, and 4.5 percent in aggregate:



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December 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2011 - 7:26pm
Well, so much for the spring 2010 double-tax-credit-stimulated rally.  The last of the effects of that entire affair have been wiped out with the latest month's drop in the median price per square foot.  Prices by this measure were down in December by 3.5 percent for single family homes, 2.4 percent for condos, and 3.0 percent in aggregate.  This brings the overall median price per square foot down to 1.2% lower than it was in December 2009 -- the first year-over-year decline in this price measure since October 2009.


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November 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 11, 2010 - 3:20pm
The median price per square foot for detached homes didn't budge between October and November.  This fit nicely into the "flat-to-down" home price thesis I've been advancing in recent months.  The 7.4% monthly rise in the condo median made for quite a poorer fit to my theory, however.



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October 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 5, 2010 - 7:31pm
October was a down month for the median price per square foot.  By this measure, detached homes were down .8%, condos by 3.3%, and the aggregate number by 1.6%:



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August 2010 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 19, 2010 - 6:56pm
The median price per square foot of San Diego homes dropped in August, at least on the whole. Condos managed to rise by 2.0% for the month, but detached homes were own 3.5%, putting the volume-weighted aggregate at -2.0%:


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Shambling Further From Affordability

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 28, 2010 - 10:13am
The continued rise in San Diego home prices has pushed valuation ratios northward -- but according to the home price-to-per capita income ratio, prices are still fairly reasonable:



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