Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

July 2013 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 20, 2013 - 6:00pm
Prices increased last month, but at a slower pace than the springtime frenzy:



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May-June 2013 Data Rodeo -- Price Explosion

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 14, 2013 - 4:56pm
This chart of the Case-Shiller index (with my estimate based on median price per square foot over the last two months) shows just how different the character of this year has been:



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Monthly Payment Ratios, May 2013: Homes May Not Be Cheap, But Mortgages Sure Are

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 24, 2013 - 9:48am

I recently updated the price-to-income and price-to rent-ratios for San Diego single family homes.  I think these are the best metrics to determine whether homes are overpriced or underpriced based on their fundamental economic underpinnings.

It's also interesting to look at the ratio of monthly payments to incomes rents, but for a different reason.  I'll get into this in a moment, but first let's check out the graphs:



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April 2013 Data Rodeo: Rock-Bottom Inventory and Rising Prices, Again

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2013 - 4:38pm

April saw a continuation of what we saw in March: fairly strong demand, ridiculously constrained supply, and rising prices.

Starting with the latter, the median price per square foot for single family homes rose 2.6% last month.  That makes for a year-over-year increase of 19.5%!  The condo price/sqft was actually down for the month, but that doesn't mean much considering last month's moonshot.  I tend to ignore the condo series due to its volatility, but for what it's worth, the median condo price/sqft is up 26.9% since last year, and the detached/condo aggregate figure is up 21.3%.



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March Data Rodeo -- Housing Market Smoking Hot

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 21, 2013 - 7:06pm

Sorry if the title sounds hyperbolic, but... wow, it's true.  As of March, the market was blazing (to continue with the heat-related metaphors).

Let's start with this graph of the median price per square foot since the 2009 trough:



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February 2013 Resale Data Rodeo (Graphs Only)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 23, 2013 - 5:19pm

January 2013 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 18, 2013 - 5:18pm
Home prices pulled back in January, despite increasingly tight inventory and robust sales.  Supply and demand will be discussed later; first, some graphs on prices. 

The median price per square foot fell on a month-to-month basis by .9% for detached homes, 6.4% for condos, and 2.3% in aggregate.  The graph below shows that such huge moves occur somewhat routinely for condos, so as always, it makes more sense to pay attention to the detached home line in blue.



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December 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 21, 2013 - 7:06pm
The median price per square foot rose again last month.  Here are the stats...

Month to month:
  • 1.9% for detached homes
  • 1.4% for attached homes
  • 1.8% in aggregate
For the Year 2012:
  • 12.6% for detached homes
  • 18.0% for attached homes
  • 14.0% in aggregate
Here's a look at this price measure since the March 2009 trough:



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November 2012 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 16, 2012 - 6:03pm
Alright, let's take a look at the resale data for November...

Our old friend the median condo price per square foot continued its volatile ways, up 7.4% for the month!  Though that's after getting spanked the prior month.  That would be the volatility, which is why I prefer the much more reliable detached home median price per square foot, which was actually flat for the month.

Here's a look since the March 2009 trough.  Note that both series are now very close to their prior post-crash highs during the 2010 stimulus-fest.



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October 2012 Resale Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 19, 2012 - 7:29pm
Prices flattened out or maybe declined last month, depending on how you want to look at it... while the much less volatile detached home median price per square foot actually rose by .3%, the condo median ppsf declined by 3.3%, leading to an aggregate decline of .5%.



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August 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 9, 2012 - 4:09pm
After taking a breather in July, the median price per square foot rose again in August:



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July 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 21, 2012 - 11:03am
After a pretty steady rise for the year to this point, home prices (as measured by the median price per square foot) largely flattened out in July:



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June 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2012 - 6:40pm
It was more of the same last month, as months of inventory remained very low:



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May 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 23, 2012 - 2:41pm
Apologies for the tardiness of this month's rodeo.

I'll start with the chart I've been watching most closely -- months of inventory (inverted) in blue, and annualized monthly price change in red:



Months of inventory is now at the lowest level in many years, and as foreshadowed by the above graph, prices have been on the rise.

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April 2012 Resale Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 14, 2012 - 6:18pm
Inventory has remained super tight, and as the historical relationship depicted in the following chart would have predicted, prices have been on the rise:



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