Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

Toronto, apparently in some kind of time warp, has gone full mania

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 10, 2017 - 9:51am

This really brought me back:


("Just jump in" was a thing a realtor actually said to me back in 05 or so).

It's a full on speculative mania (to resurrect a term I was fond of back in the day). Except this time, the exact same KIND of bubble burst horrifically just 10 years ago.

People just never learn... or, maybe more accurately: they never stop just believing whatever they feel like.

Just thought this would be a fun link for the old timers...

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February Housing Data: big jump in prices; inventory approaching early-2013 lows

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 20, 2017 - 12:09pm
The median price per square foot surged in February:

This level of price increase is in some sense what should be expected given the pretty severe lack of inventory, but to see prices go up so much in a single month is unusual:

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Valuation update (with bonus graphs!)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 1, 2017 - 12:11pm
I just posted an article at Voice of San Diego which, along with its companion piece, will serve as background to these ongoing valuation updates. Here's what they discuss:
I'll be referring back to these two articles when I update the valuation charts -- that way, I can spare regular readers (and myself) the rehashing of all the background info each time.

So for starters, check those out if you haven't.  The second article in particular might be of interest even to old-timers, as it's the most thorough piece (that I can remember anyway) I've written on the role of mortgage rates.

OK, with that background behind us, let's check in on the data as of year-end 2016. Here is the primary chart... San Diego home valuations:

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January 2017 Housing Mini-Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 23, 2017 - 1:30pm
I'm working on some valuation stuff to be posted soon. Meanwhile, here's a selection of graphs on the January resale data.  Take note of that steep decline in months of inventory from this time last year... if that doesn't rectify itself, it's a sign of higher prices immediately ahead.

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December 2016 Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 25, 2017 - 4:41pm
Here's the final score for the year 2016:

Looking at the single family number, which gives the best read, prices increased a couple % more than inflation, and roughly the same as wage and rent growth.  As one would expect in a given year, all things being equal. 

This time they're not equal in that valuations began the year at an elevated level.  However, as discussed in the afore-linked article, perhaps valuations can remain higher than usual while interest rates remain lower than usual.

Back to the monthly data, prices did pull back, but that's reasonable at this time of year:

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November 2016 Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 11, 2016 - 5:54pm
Months of inventory crept up a bit, but still made for the lowest November in recent years:

The 3-month average of prices crept up as well:

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September 2016 Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 11, 2016 - 9:11pm
Just a quick update on the September data.  Here's an overview:

Inventory remained very tight, with months of inventory easily at the lowest level in the past four years:

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Valuation Preview

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 25, 2016 - 9:45am
Hi all - I'm finally getting around to updating the valuation data; a full writeup is forthcoming but here in the meantime are some charts:

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August 2016 Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 24, 2016 - 12:19pm
Prices have leveled off in the last couple of months...

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July 2016 Monthly Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 21, 2016 - 5:37pm
Well, hello there! Can I interest you in some housing data? Some charts and graphs, perhaps, and possibly even a table?

I'll start with what I think is the key graph in this (currently undersupplied) market: months of inventory, which combines supply and demand into a single handy stat.  We can see here that while supply increased compared to demand, that is typical for the season, and we remain slightly below last year's levels. 

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June 2016 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 16, 2016 - 2:27pm
Home prices continued their general uptrend last month. The monthly graph of median price/square foot is a bit noisy...

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April 2016 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 17, 2016 - 9:25pm
After a little dip in February, San Diego home prices* experienced a sizable pop in March and April.

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February 2016 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 15, 2016 - 9:09pm
Supply is still tight out there, with February's months of active inventory lower than either of the past two years:

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December 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 9, 2016 - 8:52am

December is always an unusual month in that closed sales typically increase (presumably people trying to jam the deal through before year-end), while pendings sales drop (presumably due to holiday disruption):

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October 2015 Housing Data Rodeo

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 22, 2015 - 3:16pm
Prices have flattened out over the past few months, as might be expected during this time of year.  This is most easily seen in the Case Shiller proxy, which uses a 3 month average:

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