San Diego Housing Market News and Analysis
Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 2, 2014 - 10:54am
I must admit, I considered dispensing with the "Shambling Towards Affordability" title for these valuation updates, but in the end I decided that tradition must be maintained. Anyway, other than the fact that the housing market is neither "shambling" nor moving "towards affordability," it's a perfect fit.
One thing I did change was to combine my two previous valuation indicators, home-prices-to-incomes and home-prices-to-rents, into a single metric. I thought this would make it simpler to get a single big-picture view on home valuations, and it makes the chart maintenance a little easier on me as well. The indicator is constructed simply by dividing the Case-Shiller San Diego home price index by an equally weighted average of San Diego rents and per capita incomes, and normalizing the whole deal so that January 2000 equals a value of 100 (just like the CS index).
OK, enough background... let's have a look:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 19, 2014 - 5:41pm
Hi all - here are some year-over-year stats showing how what the market did for the year 2013...
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 29, 2013 - 7:24pm
Hello there... the usual roundup of housing charts can be found below. Prices have declined a bit in recent months, in a somewhat more noticeable manner than the usual year-end lull -- but considering the magnitude of the early-2013 price increase and the spike in rates midway through the year, this is perhaps understandable. Months of inventory have increased back to the levels that prevailed for most of 2012; this is a big change in percent terms but supply still remains scarce, historically speaking.
I hope everyone has a fantastic 2014!
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 23, 2013 - 3:24pm
Folks, sorry this has taken me so long. When urbanrealtor starts offering to buy me booze just to get the monthly charts up, I know I've been a huge slacker even by my own lofty standards of indolence.
So without further delay, let's do this. Starting with the median price/square foot, we see that the rapid price apprecation we've seen all year finally took a breather over the past couple months, with prices by this measure flattening in September and then falling in October.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on September 15, 2013 - 5:26pm
As I mentioned last in last month's rodeo, the full effect (whatever that may be) of the recent rate increase won't show up until the September data. Thus, the August data presented below is kind of a transitional phase... higher rates will have affected some of these sales but not all.
With that said, home prices continued to climb:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on August 20, 2013 - 6:00pm
Prices increased last month, but at a slower pace than the springtime frenzy:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 14, 2013 - 4:56pm
This chart of the Case-Shiller index (with my estimate based on median price per square foot over the last two months) shows just how different the character of this year has been:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 24, 2013 - 9:48am
I recently updated the price-to-income and price-to rent-ratios for San Diego single family homes. I think these are the best metrics to determine whether homes are overpriced or underpriced based on their fundamental economic underpinnings.
It's also interesting to look at the ratio of monthly payments to incomes rents, but for a different reason. I'll get into this in a moment, but first let's check out the graphs:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 16, 2013 - 4:38pm
April saw a continuation of what we saw in March: fairly strong demand, ridiculously constrained supply, and rising prices.
Starting with the latter, the median price per square foot for single family homes rose 2.6% last month. That makes for a year-over-year increase of 19.5%! The condo price/sqft was actually down for the month, but that doesn't mean much considering last month's moonshot. I tend to ignore the condo series due to its volatility, but for what it's worth, the median condo price/sqft is up 26.9% since last year, and the detached/condo aggregate figure is up 21.3%.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 21, 2013 - 7:06pm
Sorry if the title sounds hyperbolic, but... wow, it's true. As of March, the market was blazing (to continue with the heat-related metaphors).
Let's start with this graph of the median price per square foot since the 2009 trough:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 23, 2013 - 5:19pm
Submitted by Rich Toscano on February 18, 2013 - 5:18pm
Home prices pulled back in January, despite increasingly tight inventory and robust sales. Supply and demand will be discussed later; first, some graphs on prices.
The median price per square foot fell on a month-to-month basis by .9% for detached homes, 6.4% for condos, and 2.3% in aggregate. The graph below shows that such huge moves occur somewhat routinely for condos, so as always, it makes more sense to pay attention to the detached home line in blue.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on January 21, 2013 - 7:06pm
The median price per square foot rose again last month. Here are the stats...
Month to month:
Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 16, 2012 - 6:03pm
Alright, let's take a look at the resale data for November...
Our old friend the median condo price per square foot continued its volatile ways, up 7.4% for the month! Though that's after getting spanked the prior month. That would be the volatility, which is why I prefer the much more reliable detached home median price per square foot, which was actually flat for the month.
Here's a look since the March 2009 trough. Note that both series are now very close to their prior post-crash highs during the 2010 stimulus-fest.
Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 19, 2012 - 7:29pm
Prices flattened out or maybe declined last month, depending on how you want to look at it... while the much less volatile detached home median price per square foot actually rose by .3%, the condo median ppsf declined by 3.3%, leading to an aggregate decline of .5%.
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