Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

Housing Market Report: November 2005

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 4, 2005 - 5:28pm

The condo and SFR markets may be converging somewhat, but both held their own from a price standpoint. SFR volume soared, however, turning in a 30% increase over October 2004. Below I will discuss the reasons behind the volume spike, along with the trends in prices and inventory.

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Myths of the Market (UK style)

Submitted by Rich Toscano on December 1, 2005 - 9:50am

A British expat in New York has written a very thorough debunking of myths about the United Kingdom housing market. Why do we care? Two reasons:

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Deep Analysis of Los Angeles Housing

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 29, 2005 - 9:51am
I came across this very well-written piece employing my own methodology (plus some clever analytical additions by the author) to evaluate the Los Angeles housing bubble.
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Inland Empire Homes 70% Overvalued

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2005 - 9:42am
This image, taken from my article on Evidence of a California Housing Bubble, demonstrates the extent to which home prices are out of line with incomes:

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Orange County Homes 62% Overvalued

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2005 - 9:41am
This image, taken from my article on Evidence of a California Housing Bubble, demonstrates the extent to which home prices are out of line with incomes:

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Los Angeles Homes 65% Overvalued

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2005 - 9:34am
This image, taken from my article on Evidence of a California Housing Bubble, demonstrates the extent to which home prices are out of line with incomes:

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Bubblers: Put Your Money Where Your Mouth Is

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 28, 2005 - 9:22am

USA Today has an article about home price futures, which will be traded on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange starting April of next year. This is of course great news to us bubblers, in theory anyway—but as the article points out, the market won't go anywhere unless there are enough people to take both sides of the trade.

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Evidence of a Southern California Housing Bubble

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 27, 2005 - 5:45pm
Contrary to popular perception, the fundamentals underpinning Southern California's explosive real estate boom are actually quite poor. So why have home prices risen so high? Because the local housing market is in the midst of a textbook speculative bubble.
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Risks of a Serious Home Price Decline

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 27, 2005 - 3:10pm
The probability of a serious housing downturn is much higher—and that of the oft-heralded "soft landing" much lower—than most people acknowledge.
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Calling Bull$#*t on NAR

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 27, 2005 - 11:23am
Over at the San Jose Mercury News, we see that some folks are rightfully questioning the National Association of Realtor's latest propaganda campaign.
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Rise in Foreclosures Making More Headlines

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 27, 2005 - 10:14am
The NC Times has now joined the Union Tribune in running a recent article about the rising rate of defaults and foreclosures. As premium users know, the number of defaults is a stat I watch quite closely. But as they also know, defaults, while rising from their ridiculously low levels of recent years, are still quite low. When a lot of the subprime adjustable loans begin to reset in 2006-2007 we will see some serious growth in defaults and foreclosures. In the meantime, it's interesting that this stat is getting so much press... it demonstrates that even the mainstream media is fairly concerned.
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The Condo-Based Economy Makes the News

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 20, 2005 - 8:35pm
The mainstream media appears to be punching in concerning one of the main themes I've been harping on so relentlessly for the past year-and-a-half: the fact that the economy is so utterly dependent on continued strength in the housing market.
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San Diego: The Best Investment in 2006?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on November 7, 2005 - 4:36pm
PricewaterhouseCoopers has declared San Diego the "Best Region for Real Estate Investment" in 2006. And with that, I'm pretty confident in awarding the "Worst Forecast in 2005."
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Monthly Housing Market Report: October 2005

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 31, 2005 - 4:30pm
As expected, the median San Diego condo price is now down on a year-over-year basis. With that scary milestone we begin our Halloween episode of the Monthly Housing Report.
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Monthly Economic Report: October 2005

Submitted by Rich Toscano on October 30, 2005 - 4:39pm
The San Diego Union-Tribune today ran an article about the rising rate of mortgage defaults in San Diego. It's a good article, but—brace yourself for words you never thought you'd read on this website—their interpretation of the data is more negative than my own.

Wow, my fingers almost seized up just typing that.

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