Housing market

Analysis of the (primarily) San Diego housing market.

Sales and Foreclosures

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 15, 2007 - 6:27pm

Below is a 1-year chart of the number of resale home sales (condos and single family) in a given month divided by that month's NOTs and NODs, respectively. (I will provide a longer-term version when the DataQuick data hits the streets).

I noted the exact current and year-ago values so that you could get a more precise idea of just how much awful-er things are looking in the here and now.

Looking at this chart, it's not going out on too much of a limb to guess that the housing market will fare worse in the latter half of 2007 than it did in the latter half of 2006.

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Did I Mention It's a Buyer's Market?

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 11, 2007 - 1:36pm

I recently read about a new San Diego real estate booster site up at http://www.sandiegohomeownership.com (in the Transcript, natch, where it was of course considered highly newsworthy). I clicked over there just for kicks, and the first link I visited was "Home Prices/Trends."

Go on, click it. Home Prices/Trends.

Is that chart of the obviously mean-reverting data series ending at the tippy-top of an exponential rise supposed to make me want to buy a house?

Because it didn't really have that effect at all.

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June Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on July 10, 2007 - 9:51am

Prices

June saw a big move down in the size-adjusted median for detached homes:

And looking at the longer-term chart below, you can see that after the meager "spring fling" in 2006, the price per square foot for detached homes started down again in June of that year:

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May Foreclosure Activity

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 18, 2007 - 7:58am

Whether one looks at Notices of Default or Notices of Trustee Sale, San Diego's foreclosure rate is now as bad as or worse than it was during most of the 1990s housing bust:

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Chamberlin Supplemental

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 12, 2007 - 8:40am

As a supplement to the recent article about the SDDT's executive editor, please enjoy this selection of George Chamberlin quotes (which I collected for a while last year). I recall some even funnier and more damning quotes from before and shortly after the housing market peaked, but unfortunately I didn't think to start collecting them at the time. Nonetheless, there are still some gems to be found below.

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May Housing Market Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 7, 2007 - 2:18pm

It's time for the monthly housing data roundup...

Prices

To hear the median-based price indicators tell it, condo prices have stabilized and single-family prices are on a tear:

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Latest Case-Shiller Numbers

Submitted by Rich Toscano on June 1, 2007 - 9:20am

Hi everyone -- I'm back from my trip and ready to start nerding out again. While I was out, S&P released the Case-Shiller figures for March, which indicated that despite the strength in the median price, home pricing power is still declining (or at least was declining as of March).

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April Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 7, 2007 - 1:35pm

Prices

The median price per square foot, aka the size-adjusted median, was up in April for both property types, though still down from a year ago and from the November 2005 peak:

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Guest Commentary: Ramsey on Foreclosure Auctions and More

Submitted by Rich Toscano on May 2, 2007 - 9:14am

Retired REO broker Ramsey Su has sent out another set of observations on the housing market, this time covering three topics: the "subprime" spillover, the imbalance between housing supply and demand, and an upcoming huge foreclosure auction here in San Diego.

Ramsey's prior commentary can be found here and here.


Subprime Spillover, Supply and Demand, and Foreclosure Auctions

(Ramsey's disclaimer: this email is unedited; take it for whatever it’s worth)

“Subprime” Spillover

Definition – there is little doubt now that the term “subprime” has been misunderstood and misused. "Non-traditional" is a much better term. High debt-to-income (DTI) ratios, 100% combined loan to value (CLTV) ratios and loans with multiple layers of risk are far more accurate descriptions of the problems that haunted the market of late. I am going to use “non-traditional” in lieu of what is generally labeled “subprime”. Similarly, labeling the “prime” loans as “traditional” loans would provide a much better understanding of the spillover effect.

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Lereah Out

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 30, 2007 - 10:20am

National Associates of Realtors economist David Lereah, who was an embarrassment to decent Realtors everywhere, is leaving the NAR. I can only assume that the NAR belatedly realized that their strategy of self-serving disinformation was not serving their long-term interests, and that they threw that strategy's poster boy to the wolves. Of course, I have no proof at all of this assumption -- perhaps Lereah got sick of being a national punchline and left voluntarily.

Either way, it would be nice if this development heralded a move towards more ethical and forthright behavior on the part of the NAR. I'm not getting my hopes up.

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March Sales per NOD/NOT

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 17, 2007 - 5:01pm

Here's a quick update on sales vs. NODs and NOTs (which serve as very rough proxies for distressed supply) for March. As of last year, we were still coming off the lows for the NOT series, so the year-over-year difference there is quite striking. Neither series changed much from last month.

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March Defaults and Foreclosure Sales

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 12, 2007 - 10:20am

Here's a quick graph of March NODs and NOTs. I won't be able to put this into proper historical context until I get March labor force info and DataQuick sales volume. However, I wanted to put up a graph of the past year's data to demonstrate the shocking conclusion that foreclosures are still on the rise.

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March Housing Data

Submitted by Rich Toscano on April 10, 2007 - 11:04am

In case you haven't put this together from the abysmal lack of new content, I have been fairly pressed for time. So I'm going to present this month's data with a minimum of editorializing.

Prices

The size-adjusted median price, aka the median price per square-foot, was mixed for March. The mpsf (can I use that acronym, please? it will save me a lot of typing...) was down .5% for condos but up 1.4% for detached homes. Both were of course still down on a year-over-year basis...

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February Inventory Detail

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 14, 2007 - 10:23pm

In the latest housing report, I neglected to break out the months of inventory data for condos and detached homes. Without further ado:

Interestingly, while the condo supply is still below the glut-tastic levels of late 2006, the single family home supply is as high as it was at any time last year.

Supply and demand figures are squirrelly at this time of year due to holiday disruptions. Next month will give us a better read.

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Guest Commentary: Ramsey on Default and Foreclosure Volume

Submitted by Rich Toscano on March 13, 2007 - 9:16am

The prior guest piece by Ramsey (San Diego foreclosure guru and orderer of Chinese restaurant meats with questionable provenance) was a big hit, and Ramsey has kindly agreed to let me publish more of his thoughts...


THOUGHTS ON DEFAULT AND FORECLOSURE VOLUME

For those who have been receiving my weekly SD foreclosure updates, you know I have been somewhat puzzled by the week to week bumpiness.

I finally figured out a number of factors that are most like responsible for what I consider erratic foreclosure data.

Be forewarned that this email is almost entirely MY OPINION or hearsay with no data to substantiate my theories.

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